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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Incident Overview

The Jack Fire was reported at approximately 5:00 pm on July 5, 2021.  Given the steep terrain, fuels, and inaccessibility, the fire grew quickly.  The fire in burning north of State Hwy 138 and east of Forest Road 4713 (Jack Creek Road).

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This take from Cliff won't be popular on here:
 
Specifically, there is no observed trend towards "drought" over the Pacific Northwest as demanded by the proposed global warming origin of this event.
 
Below is the observed annual precipitation over Washington State since 1900.   Our region is NOT getting drier.  If anything precipitation has increased a slight amount.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.34.52.png
And is spring drought increasing in frequency as suggested by those pushing the global warming hypothesis?  The answer is no.  Below is a long-period plot of the Palmer Drought Index, which considers BOTH temperature and precipitation.  No apparent long-term trend in spring drought...and notice how much worse it was during the 1930s and early 1940s.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.36.5.png
So not only does the global warming drought hypothesis for the heatwave fail on a physical basis, but there is no trend in drought, which is a requirement if global warming was the explanation.  
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you have an hour... here is Cliff's write up on the heat wave and his take on global warming.     Its probably his longest post ever.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/was-global-warming-cause-of-great.html

He's going to end up on the Joe Rogan show talking about how he was run out of UW.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:
This take from Cliff won't be popular on here:
 
Specifically, there is no observed trend towards "drought" over the Pacific Northwest as demanded by the proposed global warming origin of this event.
 
Below is the observed annual precipitation over Washington State since 1900.   Our region is NOT getting drier.  If anything precipitation has increased a slight amount.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.34.52.png
And is spring drought increasing in frequency as suggested by those pushing the global warming hypothesis?  The answer is no.  Below is a long-period plot of the Palmer Drought Index, which considers BOTH temperature and precipitation.  No apparent long-term trend in spring drought...and notice how much worse it was during the 1930s and early 1940s.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.36.5.png
So not only does the global warming drought hypothesis for the heatwave fail on a physical basis, but there is no trend in drought, which is a requirement if global warming was the explanation.  

Eh, I’d agree the “drought hypothesis” fails as an explanation for the heatwave (that is loony tunes garbage) but it’s clear that May-September has trended drier across the PNW over the last several decades.

The cold season has trended wetter, which offsets the summer drying, but that doesn’t change the fact summer precip, hence soil/fuel moisture, has decreased.

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If you have more heatwaves, you will eventually get one that hits the jackpot. We had some pretty major heatwaves in the past decade, even if they did not hit all-time highs. August 2017 specifically got very close. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I haven’t thought about it much of late, but my opinion hasn’t really changed. It’s not to say that if absolutely everything remained equal that there could be SOME perceptible change to the real feel weather, but probably 98% of the time that’s going to be overwhelmed by mid and upper level effects on the boundary layer. It’s a fun scapegoat.

That said, I do still think the immediate coastline can see some rather noticeable effects, relatively speaking.

 

I think it has a bit more impact than you're giving it credit for, though of course it takes the right kind of pattern for it to matter. Presumably slightly colder water would chill the air over the water a bit more than usual, which is the source air for our shallow mesoscale driven marine pushes (like the ones we've seen the last several days). And a slightly sharper inversion (say 55 degree marine air vs. 57 degrees) would be a bit harder for the sun to mix out. And as Tim pointed out dewpoints would probably be effected by the water temp.

This part is more speculative, but colder water might also increase the surface pressure gradient between the ocean and the lowlands a touch, making marine pushes slightly more vigorous. 

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:
This take from Cliff won't be popular on here:
 
Specifically, there is no observed trend towards "drought" over the Pacific Northwest as demanded by the proposed global warming origin of this event.
 
Below is the observed annual precipitation over Washington State since 1900.   Our region is NOT getting drier.  If anything precipitation has increased a slight amount.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.34.52.png
And is spring drought increasing in frequency as suggested by those pushing the global warming hypothesis?  The answer is no.  Below is a long-period plot of the Palmer Drought Index, which considers BOTH temperature and precipitation.  No apparent long-term trend in spring drought...and notice how much worse it was during the 1930s and early 1940s.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.36.5.png
So not only does the global warming drought hypothesis for the heatwave fail on a physical basis, but there is no trend in drought, which is a requirement if global warming was the explanation.  

Cliff didn't have all that in "bold" or any increase in font size, no reason to do it here.

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You kinda have to drive thru it and to see it first hand for yourself with the conditions in OR. We drove thru Timber on 26 from Cannon Beach back to Portland. Then from Portland to Multnomah Falls. Unfortunately the evergreens there are in a lot worser conditions than up here. There are many brown trees along the way and the grass are very burnt. It’s as if everything is dying and we are living it. It feels and look somewhat like east of the cascades.  It wasn’t like this last time. 
 

We need the rain. 

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10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Cliff didn't have all that in "bold" or any increase in font size, no reason to do it here.

Actually... that section was a larger font in his post.  I know you love tedious minutia and nitpicking so check it out!   You can open the link and verify on your own.

I bolded the entire thing to separate it from my words and not to highlight anything specifically.

Cliff has odd bolding and font sizes in his post... here is a screen shot:

 

cm1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, James Jones said:

I think it has a bit more impact than you're giving it credit for, though of course it takes the right kind of pattern for it to matter. Presumably slightly colder water would chill the air over the water a bit more than usual, which is the source air for our shallow mesoscale driven marine pushes (like the ones we've seen the last several days). And a slightly sharper inversion (say 55 degree marine air vs. 57 degrees) would be a bit harder for the sun to mix out. And as Tim pointed out dewpoints would probably be effected by the water temp.

This part is more speculative, but colder water might also increase the surface pressure gradient between the ocean and the lowlands a touch, making marine pushes slightly more vigorous. 

Again, it’s not to say it couldn’t be a relative difference maker on some rather finite level, but it’s more about the fact I think it’s been oversold; ignoring a lot of mid and upper level triggers. Triggers that ultimately drive the anomalies themselves. Take the last week or so as an example where we saw an usually strong cross-Cascade thermal gradient with high heights but persistent westerly flow aloft. Again, things happening synoptically that would trample on the localized effects of warmer/colder near shore waters. Obviously there’s also the magnitude of the anomalies to consider where if they’re peaking the meter on either end the affects would be proportional.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... that section was a larger font in his post.  I know you love tedious minutia and nitpicking so check it out!   You can open the link and verify on your own.

I bolded the entire thing to separate it from my words and not to highlight anything specifically.

Cliff has odd bolding and font sizes in his post... here is a screen shot:

 

cm1.png

Did he really just claim the northwest is not in a drought... Wait this reminds me of something he said in 2015. lol

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Today will be one minute and thirteen seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 😄🔥

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:
This take from Cliff won't be popular on here:
 
Specifically, there is no observed trend towards "drought" over the Pacific Northwest as demanded by the proposed global warming origin of this event.
 
Below is the observed annual precipitation over Washington State since 1900.   Our region is NOT getting drier.  If anything precipitation has increased a slight amount.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.34.52.png
And is spring drought increasing in frequency as suggested by those pushing the global warming hypothesis?  The answer is no.  Below is a long-period plot of the Palmer Drought Index, which considers BOTH temperature and precipitation.  No apparent long-term trend in spring drought...and notice how much worse it was during the 1930s and early 1940s.
 
climindex.67.183.24.69.185.8.36.5.png
So not only does the global warming drought hypothesis for the heatwave fail on a physical basis, but there is no trend in drought, which is a requirement if global warming was the explanation.  

Completely and utterly useless garbage take to claim there is “no drought in the PNW/region” then only proceed to show a chart for Washington State only. Is OR, part of ID, and BC not part of the PNW? There are so many missing components here such as, could a wetter fall/winter offset a warmer/dryer spring/summer? Sure! It seems like that is conveniently missing from the article. 

Come on, this is cherrypicking at its best and he can do a lot better. Not worth the time. 

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34 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Completely and utterly useless garbage take to claim there is “no drought in the PNW/region” then only proceed to show a chart for Washington State only. Is OR, part of ID, and BC not part of the PNW? There are so many missing components here such as, could a wetter fall/winter offset a warmer/dryer spring/summer? Sure! It seems like that is conveniently missing from the article. 

Come on, this is cherrypicking at its best and he can do a lot better. Not worth the time. 

I think he means there's no trend toward more droughts in the NW.  Not that we aren't CURRENTLY in one.

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47 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Completely and utterly useless garbage take to claim there is “no drought in the PNW/region” then only proceed to show a chart for Washington State only. Is OR, part of ID, and BC not part of the PNW? There are so many missing components here such as, could a wetter fall/winter offset a warmer/dryer spring/summer? Sure! It seems like that is conveniently missing from the article. 

Come on, this is cherrypicking at its best and he can do a lot better. Not worth the time. 

Even the vast majority of WA is officially in a drought or is abnormally dry. A small part of the North Cascades notwithstanding.

There's no objective way to argue that there isn't widespread severe drought in the region now.

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Definitely chillier this morning... sure seems like upwelling is having an effect.   Right on the edge of the low clouds and fog this morning and seems like there is more fog in the lowlands.   

Side note... SEA managed to get to 74 yesterday and ended up almost perfectly normal.   -1 on the high and 0 on the low.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely chillier this morning... sure seems like upwelling is having an effect.   Right on the edge of the low clouds and fog this morning and seems like there is more fog in the lowlands.   

Side note... SEA managed to get to 74 yesterday and ended up almost perfectly normal.   -1 on the high and 0 on the low.

The marine stratus is thicker this morning than it has been all summer here. Every other morning, it dawned either broken or with obvious thin spots. It's thick and gray and gloomy this morning. Oddly, our forecast is calling for this afternoon to be significantly warmer than yesterday afternoon. Would not surprise me if that busts.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Thanks to NOAA, you can plot climate data for yourself. You can plot various drought indices for the entire Northwest climate region. 

Certainly a major trend toward drought in our region in the last 30 years. It's not immediately obvious from the time series that there's a huge climate change signal, or that there's not. 

Time series analysis and climate science are not simple, and no one would expect climate change to create a linear trend in drought conditions in a particular region. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/108/pdsi/all/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=100&begtrendyear=1990&endtrendyear=2021

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 7.03.20 AM.png

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2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Thanks to NOAA, you can plot climate data for yourself. You can plot various drought indices for the entire Northwest climate region. 

Certainly a major trend toward drought in our region in the last 30 years. It's not immediately obvious from the time series that there's a huge climate change signal, or that there's not. 

Time series analysis and climate science are not simple, and no one would expect climate change to create a linear trend in drought conditions in a particular region. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/108/pdsi/all/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=100&begtrendyear=1990&endtrendyear=2021

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 7.03.20 AM.png

1998 Hadley Cell expansion. It’s like a switch magically flipped that year.

3E2D2C8E-EAC5-41A3-92CF-1DF7430357C8.png.2f7e89f27830f5abd10fc8cd9bd96ac2.png

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12 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Thanks to NOAA, you can plot climate data for yourself. You can plot various drought indices for the entire Northwest climate region. 

Certainly a major trend toward drought in our region in the last 30 years. It's not immediately obvious from the time series that there's a huge climate change signal, or that there's not. 

Time series analysis and climate science are not simple, and no one would expect climate change to create a linear trend in drought conditions in a particular region. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/108/pdsi/all/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=100&begtrendyear=1990&endtrendyear=2021

Screen Shot 2021-07-06 at 7.03.20 AM.png

Lots of drought from about 1925-1945 as well.    Also some unusually long periods of very wet in the 80s and 90s which might have formed childhood memories for some on here of our climate always being very wet. ;)

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

EPS day 9 and 10 look promising, though I'm not sure that pattern is a precip producer.

Unfortunately no... even the mean shows very little precip for western WA or OR.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_precip_inch-6825600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-6782400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Where is King County again?

This map shows marine stratus from the BC border to Salem and from the coast to the Cascade valleys. Is that all King County? 

SmartSelect_20210706-072728_Samsung Internet.jpg

You made an observation about your local weather which did not match Jesse's doom and gloom narrative.   You are a marked man now... on the list!   Of course you were already on the list based on your enjoyment of water activities and warm weather.   😀

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Severe clear this morning once again. Perhaps Cliff concurs with some people's opinion that the PNW region begins at the King County line. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Severe clear this morning once again. Perhaps Cliff concurs with some people's opinion that the PNW region begins at the King County line. 

There is no doubt that he is very focused on the Seattle area overall.  

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Really nice SST drop along the BC and WA coast over the last week.  Besides that there has been significant warming well offshore.  Major -PDO signature.  The pattern over the next two weeks will favor continued upwelling / cooling along the West Coast.

The models show strong onshore flow this weekend so that brief ridge isn't likely to bring much in the way of above normal temps to the Puget Sound region.

 

cold.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Thin spots now appearing in the stratus.

It appears they are more widespread, but not as thick as yesterday.  The low cloud deck off the coast is very solid though.  Going to be socked in tomorrow.

Dropped to 55 here last night which is the lowest in a while.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears they are more widespread, but not as thick as yesterday.  The low cloud deck off the coast is very solid though.  Going to be socked in tomorrow.

Dropped to 55 here last night which is the lowest in a while.

There is actually more and thicker stratus here than previous days. There has been a trend, over the past week, of there being less low clouds here than further south. Many of my recent mornings have been clear or only partly cloudy, all the while people to the south were posting about being socked in.

It would be no surprise if this trend continues today. Despite the sunshine, the sea breezes have been vigorous and have kept afternoons cool here. I also expect that trend to continue.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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