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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Either way we will all be dead in 100 years. Probably 50. Except for Tim, he will feast on our souls forever. 

We could be in fire danger here as well... but you guys are bemoaning fire like its not a completely natural part of the ecosystem for eons and its something new.   Make sure your insurance policy is up to date... we just did that.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We could be in fire danger here as well... but you guys are bemoaning fire like its not a completely natural part of the ecosystem for eons and its something new.   Make sure your insurance policy is up to date... we just did that.  

I have a mortgage. Insurance is required. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah fires existed, but we are in the middle of a klimate krisis. Get hip brah. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This has all been done before.  Many, many times.  Climate cycles... vegetation changes... fire... ice.    Its never ending and we are only here for a brief moment in time.    It is what it is.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a mortgage. Insurance is required. 

What about earthquake insurance?   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What about earthquake insurance?   

Nope. Just figured in that case we are 33. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This stuff about missing your childhood PNW... well things change.  Things are always changing.   I am sorry things were one way when you were young and now they are different.  But its that way for everyone who has ever lived... nothing stays the same.    If you want your childhood to live on then maybe SE AK is a good spot.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

F off *****

No... because we are likely in the same climate change boat as Oregon soon enough.  And the entire Snoqualmie Valley could go up in flames and our house could burn down too.    What can I do to change that?    Probably nothing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hey Tim, hate to break it to you, but there is a 50% chance your wife will leave you once your youngest goes to college. Sorry. Stuff happens. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hey Tim, hate to break it to you, but there is a 50% chance your wife will leave you once your youngest goes to college. Sorry. Stuff happens. 

😁

I like those odds!    But stuff does happen.    And you can have a major impact on your family relationships.   You can't really control the changing Earth.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This has all been done before.  Many, many times.  Climate cycles... vegetation changes... fire... ice.    Its never ending and we are only here for a brief moment in time.    It is what it is.   

November 2006 Tim was equally rational about the power of birthing person nature.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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There is a 100% chance someone will be disappointed by next winter!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

November 2006 Tim was equally rational about the power of birthing person nature.

No... that was irrational fear of a massive mudslide.    I am just as guilty.    But it comes down to the fact that nature is in charge.  You can bemoan that reality until you die... but it won't change it.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

November 2006 Tim was equally rational about the power of birthing person nature.

15 years ago, or even now. But of course having the climate inordinately move in your favor the last decade helps with the pseudo-zen thing I’m sure. If we’d seen cold and wet anomalies since 2013 of the same magnitude of the warm and dry and we’d have lost the Dali lama bit pretty quickly.

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So lets say this climate shift is real and permanent... at least for our lifetime.    What is the plan?   The vegetation will be changing and that starts with dying.   That is how it works.  Its been happening for millions of years.   Do you stay and live in sorrow?  Nature does not care... its just doing what its always been doing.   The whole process is inherently natural.  It will change again soon enough.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

15 years ago, or even now. But of course having the climate inordinately move in your favor the last decade helps with the pseudo-zen thing I’m sure. If we’d seen cold and wet anomalies since 2013 of the same magnitude of the warm and dry and we’d have lost the Dali lama bit pretty quickly.

We would have moved to a warmer climate.   That is the only thing we can control.   I am just saying find happiness.   Whatever that is or wherever that is... because our lives are very short.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Basically the climate has turned in favor of our evil ghoulish nemesis. Let's face it Jesse. Not in this life, not in this life. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I have actually been enjoying this summer. Why not. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have actually been enjoying this summer. Why not. 

It would probably surprise people here how much we have been out enjoying life too. Even while acknowledging the changes to this region and feeling sad about them. It’s possible to feel both.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It would probably surprise people here how much we have been out enjoying life too. Even while acknowledging the changes to this region and feeling sad about them. It’s possible to feel both.

As much as it sucks here there is no place I would rather be! Spent a week in California and it was pure hell. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Basically the climate has turned in favor of our evil ghoulish nemesis. Let's face it Jesse. Not in this life, not in this life. 

Not if all the trees die around here and then our house burns down.    If I had my way... it would never be above 90 and rain once a week all summer.   Your forest would look much better.     But hey... none of us control any of it.   So we get to live in fear of a firestorm.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not if all the trees die around here and then our house burns down.    If I had my way... it would never be above 90 and rain once a week.    Your forest would look much better.     But hey... none of us control any of it.   So we get to live in fear of a firestorm.  

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The GFS really loves ULLs. Worse than the old Euro ever was in that regard.

Can’t recall a single GFS run since March that didn’t go ULL crazy in the medium/long range. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The GFS really loves ULLs. Worse than the old Euro ever was in that regard.

Can’t recall a single GFS run since March that didn’t go ULL crazy in the medium/long range. 

If it means hot weather here it will verify. 100%

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it means hot weather here it will verify. 100%

Clown range looks Andrew-friendly.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

I know that the scale of the fires up here isn’t near what happened down there in September…but that fire in Bonney lake was pretty crazy to see. On top of what happened in Oregon it’s just crazy to see these things happening. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly I was never worried about fires until last year. My wife always talked about the possibility and I would dismiss it. Then that all happened. It doesn't even seem real. 

After seeing what happened on the west side down there last September... I am now keenly aware of what strong east winds can do when its dry.   And we are very prone to east wind here.   So if the timing is right (before the fall rains)... it can definitely happen here as well. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

This is both heartless and manages to miss the point. Some of us truly care about our native vegetation, native wildlife, our glaciers, the outdoor activities that make the PNW the PNW. You can’t just say “it is what it is” and expect people with actual attachments to our area to think that’s logical. 

Coastal glaciated mountain range, that’s as rare and epic as it comes in the contiguous US. Massive glaciated volcanos. Orca pods and salmon runs. Every time you post about this you act like things change and that’s that, which is true, but you ignore what will be lost and what will suffer. 
 

Will the western Toad pollywogs my kids found at our little lake today still be here in 30 years? Will the ferry captain still be calling out Orca sightings? Will we still hear the Pikas chirping in the rocks at Mt Rainier? 

If you say who cares, so be it. But it’s so 33 for you to combat people on this. 

 

This.

And to add insult to injury, all of the pious "embrace change" talk is in the context of years of gaslighting, acting like there isn't a problem in the first place, pretending like what is normal for here isn't, demonizing people for "hating sun" just because they know it's not healthy for our region to run precip defecits month after month, year after year. And playing a sickly sweet innocent act all the while.

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23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

This is both heartless and manages to miss the point. Some of us truly care about our native vegetation, native wildlife, our glaciers, the outdoor activities that make the PNW the PNW. You can’t just say “it is what it is” and expect people with actual attachments to our area to think that’s logical. 

Coastal glaciated mountain range, that’s as rare and epic as it comes in the contiguous US. Massive glaciated volcanos. Orca pods and salmon runs. Every time you post about this you act like things change and that’s that, which is true, but you ignore what will be lost and what will suffer. 
 

Will the western Toad pollywogs my kids found at our little lake today still be here in 30 years? Will the ferry captain still be calling out Orca sightings? Will we still hear the Pikas chirping in the rocks at Mt Rainier? 

If you say who cares, so be it. But it’s so f U c k Ed for you to combat people on this. 

 

I never said who cares... but the universe truly does not care.   What is native to an area changes all the time.    We care because we want things to remain the same based on what we know.  This is true in all aspects of life.   You can tell me the same things about my life and my environment and its the same reality.     Things change.

My original point was that I hope people find happiness somewhere.   People are really down... more than ever.   I understand it.   And I don't think climate change will stop.  

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This.

And to add insult to injury, all of the pious "embrace change" talk is in the context of years of gaslighting, acting like there isn't a problem in the first place, pretending like what is normal for here isn't, demonizing people for "hating sun" just because they know it's not healthy for our region to run precip defecits month after month, year after year. And playing a sickly sweet innocent act all the while.

Demonizing people is what you do.    All the time.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I never said who cares... but the universe truly does not care.   What is native to an area changes all the time.    We care because we want things to remain the same based on what we know.  This is true in all aspects of life.   You can tell me the same things about my life and my environment and its the same reality.     Things change.

My original point was that I hope people find happiness somewhere.   People are really down... more than ever.   I understand it.   And I don't think climate change will stop.  

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change and environmental degradation if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

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11 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Come on Tim, this is just nihilism with a layer of Zen makeup. If we knew for months in advance that a 6 mile diameter meteor was headed towards us, would you say we shouldn't try to deflect it or break it up because it's natural and happened before 66 million years ago? And if you think we should try to do something in that scenario, why would it be any different for climate change if we thought we could do something about it?

Of course the planet will recover just fine in a relative geological blink almost no matter what do, but what most people care about is maintaining conditions to continue prosperous and healthy human civilization long into the future.

This is all true but it might not be in our control.    Ironically... deflecting an asteroid might be easier than reversing climate change which might be happening on a natural scale as well.    But we should do everything we can.  

And climate change is not all bad... some areas will benefit.  Humans have thrived because the world is currently in a stable, relatively warm inter-glacial period.   A super-volcano could send things quickly in the other direction and wipe out humanity in short order.  

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