July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just realize that the models show that today is expected to be one of the 2 coolest days in the next two weeks.

They've been busting high a lot...especially the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m genuinely curious how Mass feels about this. The study have yet been peer reviewed but it appears to be extensive with about 27 international scientists involved. 
 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

They lost me at the virtually impossible.  Totally irresponsible.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

S**t like this is why so many people don’t trust climate science/scientists.

Said claim is vague and impossible to verify. Similar events *have* happened through the Holocene (the Medieval Mega-Droughts being just one example).
 

Or, perhaps, is it implied that the LIA climate regime would *not* have supported such an event, and that humans have a hand in pulling the system out of that regime faster than would otherwise be the case, hence bear responsibility for the event occurring at this point in time..?

In which case I might agree. That’s is a plausible take. But the headline here is largely a disaster. It is misleading, seemingly designed to attract clicks and social media buzz more than anything else. Lame.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They've been busting high a lot...especially the GFS.

Still... today might be the coolest day in sight.   Maybe again late next week in 9 days.  The general theme seems to be near normal on the coolest days and lots of warmer than normal days in between.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Still... today might be the coolest day in sight.   Maybe again late next week in 9 days.  The general theme seems to be near normal on the coolest days and lots of warmer than normal days in between.

Normal is the new kold. 

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Or, perhaps, is it implied that the LIA climate regime would *not* have supported such an event, and that humans have a hand in pulling the system out of that regime faster than would otherwise be the case, hence bear responsibility for the event occurring at this point in time..?

In which case I might agree. That’s is a plausible take. But the headline here is largely a disaster. It is misleading, seemingly designed to attract clicks and social media buzz more than anything else. Lame.

I would concur with this. Wish they would publish their study in more detailed manner. It seems like it was very watered down for clicks with an irresponsible headline. 

[MossMan]

67/53 on the day, currently 57. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

67/53 on the day, currently 57. 

Kold! 

[Cloud]

We’re really ramping it up with the amount of daylight loss per day now.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

61°F. Closed most of the windows to keep some heat in.

I just did same thing….chilly

62*

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I’m genuinely curious how Mass feels about this. The study have yet been peer reviewed but it appears to be extensive with about 27 international scientists involved. 
 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

Funny thing is, they use very similar logic that he did. He said same pattern 100+ years ago would have been probably cooler by about the amount the world has warmed. Only they place more weight on the low probability extreme nature of the event.

• Also, this heatwave was about 2°C  hotter than it would have been if it had occurred at the beginning of the industrial revolution (when global mean temperatures were 1.2°C cooler than today).
• Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. 

[Phil]

Now that’s a beautiful trough.

And I’ll be in GA..also under blue.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Now that’s a beautiful trough.

And I’ll be in GA..also under blue.

 

 

Yay! DP’s in the 70’s instead of the 80’s, and highs no warmer than the low 90’s. Enjoy!

[Front Ranger]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still... today might be the coolest day in sight.   Maybe again late next week in 9 days.  The general theme seems to be near normal on the coolest days and lots of warmer than normal days in between.

But that wouldn't have seemed the case 5-7 days ago.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

56 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Normal is the new kold. 

Actually did pull off a negative departure here.

kbli.txt

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

61°F. Closed most of the windows to keep some heat in.

LOL we finally got to open the windows and fire up the whole house fan to cool things off to where we really like the temp (67 or less).  I missed out on the other night when it cooled down to 53.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually did pull off a negative departure here.

Perfect day today imo. Looks like a below average day across the board.

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually did pull off a negative departure here.

kbli.txt 2.65 kB · 2 downloads

-4 on the max here but +3 on the min. Have had consistently warm overnight lows since late June at my location. 

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Now that’s a beautiful trough.

And I’ll be in GA..also under blue.

 

 

Lol... as soon as you get to the OR/CA border the negative anomalies just stop. Never ends for those poor bastards down south. One dry lightning burst from the same shitshow as last year unfolding again.

Not only does the fire potential remain high for them, but if it trends north Oregon gets put in the orange as well.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice looking GFS run tonight.  The models are really locking in on a decently cool pattern.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

But that wouldn't have seemed the case 5-7 days ago.

The models have been showing huge runs with no highs below 80 in SEA.  Obviously that has not verified at all since the big heat wave.  Pretty plain to see there are plenty of sub 80 days coming up for SEA.  The 0z GFS shows far cooler weather than what we saw today for much of week 2.

[Geos]

Today was an awesome cool day. Clouds didn't part until about 3pm in Bothell. Highest temp I saw was 72 in that area. Now down to 66 here in Woodinville. 

[snow_wizard]

It's also quite intriguing how the models have been showing abnormal cold developing in Canada on recent runs.  They've been showing some major below normal 850s up there.

[luminen]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

S**t like this is why so many people don’t trust climate science/scientists.

Said claim is vague and impossible to verify. Similar events *have* happened through the Holocene (the Medieval Mega-Droughts being just one example).
 

Non-scientists trying to do science.

That's all it is at this point.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models have been showing huge runs with no highs below 80 in SEA.  Obviously that has not verified at all since the big heat wave.  Pretty plain to see there are plenty of sub 80 days coming up for SEA.  The 0z GFS shows far cooler weather than what we saw today for much of week 2.

Nah. Models always trend warmer. 2015 redux, but hotter. Cuz climate change.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nah. Models always trend warmer. 2015 redux, but hotter. Cuz climate change.

There’s been some loopy hyperbole in here of late.

Gotten to the point where ma’ nature almost has no choice but to set the record straight. These overperforming marine layer days are the shot across the bow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s been some loopy hyperbole in here of late.

Gotten to the point where ma’ nature almost has no choice but to set the record straight. These overperforming marine layer days are the shot across the bow.

Momentary blip. There is sure to be another 100+ day at KSEA this season. It’s all but a lock at this point.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny and 78F here today.  Strong marine push tonight though.  There is a noticeable chill to the breeze. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sunny and 78F here today.  Strong marine push tonight though.  There is a noticeable chill to the breeze. 

That’s an amazingly warm reading for today… warmer than Portland, in fact! You must have really been shielded from the effects of the marine push.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That’s an amazingly warm reading for today… warmer than Portland, in fact! You must have really been shielded from the effects of the marine push.

No marine layer here today.  Sunny from start to finish. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

There’s been some loopy hyperbole in here of late.

Gotten to the point where ma’ nature almost has no choice but to set the record straight. These overperforming marine layer days are the shot across the bow.

I heard some loopy hyperbole in June about deep, cold troughs coming by the end of the month... and a 1954-like July incoming.   

[snow drift]

Another day in the 90s here

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Momentary blip. There is sure to be another 100+ day at KSEA this season. It’s all but a lock at this point.

I don’t think it’ll happen again this summer tbh. 100+ days are extremely rare and what we just went through was an exceptional anomaly. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow.  OLM is down to 52 with a dp of 48.  The dp at SEA has dropped to 50 now.  The high dew points we've had for so long now is why the min temps have sucked so bad.  This is a nice change.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I don’t think it’ll happen again this summer tbh. 100+ days are extremely rare and what we just went through was an exceptional anomaly. 

The anomaly was actually greater than anything that happened in Jan 1950 in fact.  A heatwave of the scope we recently saw has never happened in the period of record whereas Jan 1950 cold happens from time to time.  Although the monthly average in Jan 1950 is another matter.

[snow_wizard]

I would love to see some of that crazy cold in NW Canada during week two get dumped into the trough that's going to dig in here.

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I heard some loopy hyperbole in June about deep, cold troughs coming by the end of the month... and a 1954-like July incoming.   

Still predicting a #foreverwarm July?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very pleasant 61F out there. Back to the 90s party before too long.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Still predicting a #foreverwarm July?

The first 1/2 of July is going to end up pretty warm.  That mid month trough is still a good week away on the models. 

[Cloud]

Apparently it’s been pretty dry in the Alaskan panhandle as well.