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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just read through the thirtymile fire investigation yesterday....someone out there def knows that was probably them.

The Angora fire in Tahoe 2007 was a camp fire left unattended. They never found the culprits but it's where High school kids hang out

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And side note... the mid June through mid July period in 2019 was marine layer on steroids for the EPSL.    This is definitely less than that period.   Most days in that period in 2019 never cleared out at all here.   We have only had one day like that in this run... which was last Thursday.  

July 2019 was fairly wet so a lot of the clouds were from frontal systems.  I was talking about the classic regime of low clouds and afternoon sun.  Going to be a lot of more of it too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Check out this near-term correction (to less cut-off of the core of the Alaskan Low) on the GFS.

This bias in the GFS is astounding. Simply for its persistence. Not even state dependent..it manifests almost every run.

87856628-C79C-4CAA-B3A0-E703A62299DB.gif

Completely unrelated but...

I just saw that a La Nina watch was issued then saw this map. I'm so excited for never ending model riding this fall and Winter. We're so close!

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Like tim said…just 2 years ago in 2019 there was a lot more marine layer days at least up here in western WA. It’s been nice to see…but it’s not exactly exceptional. Probably just seems that way since there’s been much less marine layer days overall the last 8 or so years. 

As I said a lot of that was from fronts.  That was a completely different situation.  You just seem hell bent on going against everything I say lately...like doubting the historic warmth would continue....

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Check out this near-term correction (to less cut-off of the core of the Alaskan Low) on the GFS.

This bias in the GFS is astounding. Simply for its persistence. Not even state dependent..it manifests almost every run.

87856628-C79C-4CAA-B3A0-E703A62299DB.gif

In a situation like this that's a huge deal too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Completely unrelated but...

I just saw that a La Nina watch was issued then saw this map. I'm so excited for never ending model riding this fall and Winter. We're so close!

Yup.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Completely unrelated but...

I just saw that a La Nina watch was issued then saw this map. I'm so excited for never ending model riding this fall and Winter. We're so close!

Pretty nice they issued a La Nina watch.  The chances of a Nino this winter are pretty much zero now.  My bets are on this cold season being an early starter.  Already a pretty major cold air mass progged to hit NW Canada next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm just loving the feel of the air with these lower dew points.  That was a remarkably long run of high humidity and yesterday it just decided to end.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty nice they issued a La Nina watch.  The chances of a Nino this winter are pretty much zero now.  My bets are on this cold season being an early starter.  Already a pretty major cold air mass progged to hit NW Canada next week.

I’d be over the moon with a 2007-08 type (cold onshore flow) December-January at this point. Little or no lowland action but consistently chilly, almost no SW flow torching, and even a mediocre NW’ly system dumps feet of powder in the Cascades.

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

July 2019 was fairly wet so a lot of the clouds were from frontal systems.  I was talking about the classic regime of low clouds and afternoon sun.  Going to be a lot of more of it too.

There is very little marine layer shown on the ECMWF for the next 5 days.    You get so caught up in the moment.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Completely unrelated but...

I just saw that a La Nina watch was issued then saw this map. I'm so excited for never ending model riding this fall and Winter. We're so close!

Hear hear! 🍻 Days getting shorter, shadows growing longer..soon the smell of fallen leaves will be filling the air.

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12Z ECMWF not backing off as much as the 12Z GFS did with the trough next week... but its definitely slowing it down which is a sign it probably won't be as robust as was shown on previous runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF not backing off as much as the 12Z GFS did with the trough next week... but its definitely slowing it down which is a sign it probably won't be as robust as was shown on previous runs.

Honestly, I don’t think anyone here except Jim expects one off, clown range model runs with strong negative temperature departures to verify.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty nice they issued a La Nina watch.  The chances of a Nino this winter are pretty much zero now.  My bets are on this cold season being an early starter.  Already a pretty major cold air mass progged to hit NW Canada next week.

Climo (given boreal spring IPWP structure) has been screaming double-dip La Niña all year.

Question is, can we turn this into a 3-year event? Or do we begin the move to El Niño next spring? Big questions.

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Nice day in Skykomish! There is a fair amount of tree damage right along HWY 2 between Monroe and Skykomish like the asphalt amplified the heat and cooked them, trees away from the Highway don’t look too bad. 

E80A7599-40FD-416A-AE68-C634689E69D7.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh I’m sure it’s definitely happened. Someone has a campfire and they don’t put it out all the way…next day there’s a big fire in the area and they’re like “oh sh*t was that me?” And never say a word. 

or something like eagle creek, if that kid were alone, and no one knew he had fireworks and he started it, and it got out of hand.

 

probably 13 years ago some friends and i were on sauvie island around mid july and we were firing a ton of mortars around, at each other, you know typical young dude stuff... and one kid in our party shot one into the cottonwoods along the shore and promptly started the underbrush on fire.  I thought we would all go to prison for burning down the island, but in a twist of fate, or something, the friends' house we were at, his dad happened to be a firefighter and had a water truck at his house. I learned to run a water truck that day, and we never got in trouble.

I guess it negligence much less obvious than that can be pretty common.  It is crazy how fast fires can start!

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice day in Skykomish! There is a fair amount of tree damage right along HWY 2 between Monroe and Skykomish like the asphalt amplified the heat and cooked them, trees away from the Highway don’t look too bad. 

E80A7599-40FD-416A-AE68-C634689E69D7.jpeg

It’s more widespread down here, but the highway right of ways are by far the worst.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

or something like eagle creek, if that kid were alone, and no one knew he had fireworks and he started it, and it got out of hand.

 

probably 13 years ago some friends and i were on sauvie island around mid july and we were firing a ton of mortars around, at each other, you know typical young dude stuff... and one kid in our party shot one into the cottonwoods along the shore and promptly started the underbrush on fire.  I thought we would all go to prison for burning down the island, but in a twist of fate, or something, the friends house we were at happened to be a firefighter and had a water truck at his house. I learned to run a water truck that day, and we never got in trouble.

 

Reminds me of the time I almost lit a juniper tree on fire in my teenaged pyro phase, but the garden hose was juuuust long enough to reach it and I had juuuust enough time to turn on the water and drag the hose over (the fire was spreading fast) to be able to put it out before it got totally out of control.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Wish I’d waited a few weeks to the pull the trigger on our trip. Seems increasingly likely a mammoth eastern death ridge develops late this month or the first part of August. Ffs. 🤦

Could’ve avoided a good chunk of it had I not jumped the gun. 

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36 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not too hard to imagine a situation where the week 2 trough skims by to the north or digs offshore. Especially as we head into the 2nd half of July, climo usually wins. 

Sort of what the 12Z ECMWF shows...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1625745600-1625745600-1626609600-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wish I’d waited a few weeks to the pull the trigger on our trip. Seems increasingly likely a mammoth eastern death ridge develops late this month or the first part of August. Ffs. 🤦

Could’ve avoided a good chunk of it had I not jumped the gun. 

Your timing is always off... I wouldn't worry about it.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I said a lot of that was from fronts.  That was a completely different situation.  You just seem hell bent on going against everything I say lately...like doubting the historic warmth would continue....

Not just me…maybe if half the sh*t you posted was based in reality and not wishcasting people wouldn’t give you a hard time. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Reminds me of the time I almost lit a juniper tree on fire in my teenaged pyro phase, but the garden hose was juuuust long enough to reach it and I had juuuust enough time to turn on the water and drag the hose over (the fire was spreading fast) to be able to put it out before it got totally out of control.

i hear ya, i chased a bumble bee with a sparkler when i was 13, and it landed on a lavender plant next to our house, i got the bee, but the plant erupted in flames, but the garden hose was 10' away.

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40 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not too hard to imagine a situation where the week 2 trough skims by to the north or digs offshore. Especially as we head into the 2nd half of July, climo usually wins. 

It’s possible, but it’s not the most likely outcome, either.

As I’m sure you know, above avg temps are not climo. By definition. ;) 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not just me…maybe if half the sh*t you posted was based in reality and not wishcasting people wouldn’t give you a hard time. 

That is the problem... he pretty much only talks about his fantasy stuff.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your timing is always off... I wouldn't worry about it.  👍

There-in lies the problem. Generally try to skip town when it’s hot and nasty to drop our energy bill the most. AC is expensive. Personal comfort is secondary but also a plus when we..ahem..time it right.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is the problem... he pretty much only talks about his fantasy stuff.  

Then speaks about troughs a week or more in advance as if they’ve already verified. He sees what he wants to see and ignores anything that doesn’t fit…and when it doesn’t go his way he just disappears. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Jim Effect™️ is starting to show itself in next weekend’s troughing.

Probably just a waffle. Windshield wiper effect.

Though the 1964-lite troughing on the 00z runs is unlikely to verify. The VP200 signal east of the dateline is dominated by fast-propagating CCKWs. So the patterns are likely to be progressive/transient as well.

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Then speaks about troughs a week or more in advance as if they’ve already verified. He sees what he wants to see and ignores anything that doesn’t fit…and when it doesn’t go his way he just disappears. 

Yeah... seems like he is just as satisfied by seeing something cold in the long range models as it actually happening.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I haven't had a <90 degree day since June 23rd. Even though we couldn't match an all time, I would bet the farm this overall heat is something Klamath Falls has not gone through until this summer. It's pretty common to have about 3-4 hot days dip back into the 80's for a bit and repeat.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... seems like he is just as satisfied by seeing something cold in the long range models as it actually happening.  

And that’s fine with me I understand liking the model riding aspect of it. What does get irritating is when he’s going on about a weather pattern going on like it’s some old skool stuff when it really isn’t. I don’t really see anything that interesting coming in terms of cold anomalies and nothing recently has happened has been anything cold…has been average to above average. The pattern past day 7 might have a few below normal days but it doesn’t look all that exciting it still hasn’t even verified yet. Then he gets mad when he gets called out for it…if you post anything here it’s open to criticism. He should grow some thicker skin if he can’t handle a bit of criticism. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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