Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

The Bootleg Fire is just absolutely raging across the dry pine forests of the Winema-Fremont NF. It jumped the Sycan River today. It was estimated at 17,000 acres this morning. They are flying an infrared plane over it tonight to get a better idea of size. My guess is it will come in over 30,000 acres with the next update. 

  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z EPS actually looked similar late next week... so maybe.   But the models might continue to back off on the troughing as well.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6480000.png

I don’t think models are backing off. Just waffling, as usual. Remember it wasn’t long ago guidance had the troughs missing altogether.

Those extreme solutions last night were almost certainly overdone, but that was just one cycle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Bootleg Fire is just absolutely raging across the dry pine forests of the Winema-Fremont NF. It jumped the Sycan River today. It was estimated at 17,000 acres this morning. They are flying an infrared plane over it tonight to get a better idea of size. My guess is it will come in over 30,000 acres with the next update. 

Late evening satellite view... thankfully we have westerly flow.

We are going to get inundated with smoke if we get SE flow.  

COD-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest.02.20210709.014617-over=map-bars=.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I don’t think models are backing off. Just waffling, as usual. Remember it wasn’t long ago guidance had the troughs missing altogether.

Those extreme solutions last night were almost certainly overdone, but that was just one cycle.

I get a pretty strong sense of delaying and backing off now.   But hey... maybe the 00Z ECMWF will change that feeling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

😱😱😱

 

70FF0336-882D-45A0-8D93-EF9500A5BD5D.jpeg

There is a spot in north Texas where you could walk across the line from warm and dry to snowy.   That would be pretty fun!  

  • Excited 2
  • lol 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although... the 00Z ECMWF is still just a glancing blow.    Enhanced marine layer for a couple days and then the marine layer is wiped out by Friday and the weekend.   This is actually a sunny and slightly warmer than normal pattern by the weekend.  Its even basically clear along the WA coast with this set up. 

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6609600.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the first time in a couple of weeks it's cooler here tonight than SEA.  Them having cooler low temps than here is quite rare and to have them cooler for days on end is downright bizarre.  Now that the air has dried out that aspect of things is back to normal.  That was a remarkably long period of high dew points for this area.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

😱😱😱

 

70FF0336-882D-45A0-8D93-EF9500A5BD5D.jpeg

Looks like an East Coast weenie forecast.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today will be one minute and twenty six seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 🤩👏

  • Like 5
  • Sad 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today will be one minute and twenty six seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 🤩👏

Since the first of the month and as of 7/8 we've lost exactly 8mins of daylight. It's a lot more noticeable in the morning with the later sunrise. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just how on earth is Greenland gaining ice this time of year? This is gonna wind up being a record year for ice gain when all is said and done there. Wow.

I'm sorry, this year's climate took some crazy pills or something. Also west coast is really getting the shaft (kind of has all year) with something like 2/3rds of the continent under anomalous cool conditions. 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

48.7 for a low so far. Of course, the marine layer which has been keeping us cooler during the day stops the overnight lows from getting too cool.  Nice and clear this morning.

We were pretty warm at night a few weeks ago without a marine layer.

The coolest nights in the summer seem to happen on the first clear morning after a few marine layer days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

Just how on earth is Greenland gaining ice this time of year? This is gonna wind up being a record year for ice gain when all is said and done there. Wow.

I'm sorry, this year's climate took some crazy pills or something. Also west coast is really getting the shaft (kind of has all year) with something like 2/3rds of the continent under anomalous cool conditions. 

Yeah it’s been a non-summer up there so far.

Though perhaps not surprising. Patterns like the one which recently blowtorched the West tend to feature a vortex near/over Greenland. A very consistent warm season teleconnection.

0E96327C-468F-419C-AF37-B506DA470A69.jpeg

5805D606-6DE6-4D14-B92B-BA08C26A9B4C.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA is at +1.1 on the month while WFO SEA is at +4.2

I can't remember ever seeing such a big difference between those stations.   OLM splits the difference at +2.5 while BLI is at +3.6

I know the averages were updated which should eliminate the SEA UHI effect... but it almost seems like the thermometer at SEA is actually running cold.     Its becoming strange for it to always be running colder in terms of departures and actual temperatures.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at +1.1 on the month while WFO SEA is at +4.2

I can't remember ever seeing such a big difference between those stations.   OLM splits the difference at +2.5 while BLI is at +3.6

I know the averages were updated which should eliminate the SEA UHI effect... but it almost seems like the thermometer at SEA is actually running cold.     Its becoming strange for it to always be running colder in terms of departures and actual temperatures.

 

Is SEA closer to/downstream from the water? 

Here, during June/early July, the proximity to water constrains Reagan’s warm anomalies compared to other stations. Forces stronger afternoon bay/river breeze which reinforces the effect.

But the opposite is true by ~ late July, when bay/river temps warm into the 80s (or in awful years, low 90s 🤢).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Is SEA closer to/downstream from the water? 

Here, during June/early July, the proximity to water constrains Reagan’s warm anomalies compared to other stations. Forces stronger afternoon bay/river breeze which reinforces the effect.

But the opposite is true by ~ late July, when bay/river temps warm into the 80s (or in awful years, low 90s 😬).

But that is all built into the averages.

HQM on the coast has not had a negative departure yet this month.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But that is all built into the averages.

HQM on the coast has not had a negative departure yet this month.   

But some patterns can magnify the effect more than others.

Not saying that’s what it is..I don’t know enough about the local climatological quirks there to judge. Just wondering if that might be a factor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

But some patterns can magnify the effect more than others.

Not saying that’s what it is..I don’t know enough about the local climatological quirks there to judge. Just wondering if that might be a factor.

WFO SEA has had basically the same marine layer coverage... and that station is +4.2 

And OLM is definitely more directly effected by the marine influence through the Chehalis Gap than SEA and that station is +2.5

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convection doesn’t want to hang around the WPAC/dateline for long. Not surprisingly given modest -ENSO tendency.

But still, this is not indicative of any (sustained) cool pattern in the PNW, for now at least. But it doesn’t suggest ridging either. Should be transient patterns, with near average temps on the westside for the next 3 weeks given analogous setups in previous years.

B0FE2006-E7D4-480D-B0F7-333AF24B21B7.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Departures as we head into our next hot spell.

PDX: 3.8

EUG: 4.8

SLE: 6.0

K-Falls: 7.1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last night I predicted the Bootleg Fire had grown to about 30,000 acres. I was wrong, it appears it has grown to about 39,000 acres as it made a 5 mile run late yesterday. 

  • Sad 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Departures as we head into our next hot spell.

PDX: 3.8

EUG: 4.8

SLE: 6.0

K-Falls: 7.1

 

SEA is actually the coldest station in the entire PNW this month. 

It went from being unrepresentatively warm to now unrepresentatively cold for the region.  😃

One additional anecdotal point about SEA is that Jim has mentioned a couple times how unusual it is for SEA to run colder than his location at night and it has been happening consistently.     Not sure what to make of it... but SEA has been running unusually colder in terms of average and often in terms of actual temperature than all the stations around it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last night I predicted the Bootleg Fire had grown to about 30,000 acres. I was wrong, it appears it has grown to about 39,000 acres as it made a 5 mile run late yesterday. 

Wow…satellite image looks pretty smoky this morning as well. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

 

SEA is actually the coldest station in the entire PNW this month. 

It went from being unrepresentatively warm to now unrepresentatively cold for the region.  😃

One additional anecdotal point about SEA is that Jim has mentioned a couple times how unusual it is for SEA to run colder than his location at night and it has been happening consistently.     Not sure what to make of it... but SEA has been running unusually colder in terms of average and often in terms of actual temperature than all the stations around it.

It's interesting. SLE ran warmer for years it seemed, and then fall of 2019 suddenly started running colder. I think it was because we actually had a cold weather pattern. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...