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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

While SEA was -3 on the day... OLM came in perfectly normal at 0.

Now that the 10 years from 2011-2020 have been added in to their average, and 1981-90 have been removed, it certainly makes a big difference for SEA. 

Nice to see their anomalies more in line with rest of region now.

As far as absolute temps, though, still trust OLM far more in comparison to their historical record. Because of SEA's UHI, it's still easier for them to get record warmth, and harder to get record cold (all else being equal) compared to OLM.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Now that the 10 years from 2011-2020 have been added in to their average, 1981-90 have been removed, it certainly makes a big difference for SEA. 

Nice to see their anomalies more in line with rest of region now.

As far as absolute temps, though, still trust OLM far more in comparison to their historical record. Because of SEA's UHI, it's still easier for them to get record warmth, and harder to get record cold (all else being equal) compared to OLM.

That is the funny part... its still not in line.    Now its the coldest station in terms of anomalies.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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61 and sunny here…should be on track for upper 70s-lower 80s. Pretty quick marine layer burn off compared to the last 10 days. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

You're basing that on one month of anomalies. And it wasn't a huge difference.

For July... and yes its still too early too tell if its permanent.

SEA +1.1

WFO SEA +4.2

BLI +3.6

OLM +2.5

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is a watch for another La Nina winter, I'm not gonna draw a map but I'll say maybe this one will act more like a normal La Nina? 

And last time we came off a major drought was a monster snowy December in southern Oregon. ;)
I haven't had a snowy first half of winter since 2015 now that I think about it.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Bootleg Fire (east of Chiloquin) has grown to nearly 40,000 acres. Not looking like it's in control much.

After the 242 Fire in Chiloquin no more than 10 months ago, they gotta be worried about this summer.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For July... and yes its still too early too tell if its permanent.

SEA +1.1

WFO SEA +4.2

BLI +3.6

OLM +2.5

 

SEA will probably be over +2 by mid month still. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Bootleg Fire (east of Chiloquin) has grown to nearly 40,000 acres. Not looking like it's in control much.

After the 242 Fire in Chiloquin no more than 10 months ago, they gotta be worried about this summer.

At some point there won't be much left to burn. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At some point there won't be much left to burn. 

And WFO SEA will be +5 or +6

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

GFS seems a little lost right now.

Or maybe its leading the way... the 12Z ECMWF will be interesting.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At some point there won't be much left to burn. 

Odds are we have a different September than last one. Laughably dry with just trace, and was my 2nd October in a row to be a top tier dry month. I believe we can still get atmospheric rivers before December. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The 12Z GFS is not much different than its 00Z run.   So if its lost... its consistently lost with the same pattern.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And WFO SEA will be +5 or +6

We would need some decent cold anomalies in the second half of July to offset where we will be by midmonth…could be some negative days from July ~15-20th but I kinda doubt the final 1/3 of July has much to offer. We will see though!

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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83/53 yesterday and a +1F. The airport got colder in a more exposed location and winds calmed there so they don’t show a very good profile of what’s happening down here in Springfield, Dexter-Lowell, Creswell, Cottage Grove etc.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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FWIW... the 12Z GEFS is trending toward stretching the troughing out more across the NPAC late next week which is what the GFS also shows and the reason the trough does not dig into the PNW.   

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6523200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good grief.  Looks like some major thunderstorms blowing up over southern BC.  A lot of debris dropping down into WA as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Is SEA closer to/downstream from the water? 

Here, during June/early July, the proximity to water constrains Reagan’s warm anomalies compared to other stations. Forces stronger afternoon bay/river breeze which reinforces the effect.

But the opposite is true by ~ late July, when bay/river temps warm into the 80s (or in awful years, low 90s 🤢).

I think SEA has just been in line with the main core of the marine pushes that have been coming in.  They are in line for a fairly long trajectory off of Puget Sound when the angle is right.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think SEA has just been in line with the main core of the marine pushes that have been coming in.  They are in line for a fairly long trajectory off of Puget Sound when the angle is right.

But then why is OLM at +2.5?    OLM is in the same line and much closer to the source.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good grief.  Looks like some major thunderstorms blowing up over southern BC.  A lot of debris dropping down into WA as well.

Was this from last night?   There are no thunderstorms or debris clouds now... but that did happen yesterday evening. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Oops.  For some reason my sat loop didn't update correctly.  The storms were yesterday evening.

At least for me the MODIS for WA isn't updating so don't get fooled like I did!

  • Storm 1
  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Oops.  For some reason my sat loop didn't update correctly.  The storms were yesterday evening.

At least for me the MODIS for WA isn't updating so don't get fooled like I did!

This my favorite satellite link...

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Pac_NW-02-48-0-100

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There is a spot in north Texas where you could walk across the line from warm and dry to snowy.   That would be pretty fun!  

Sounds like here this past Feb...we had a little bit of rain but not much.

Our typical winter weather progression:

Terrible Location 5.png

  • Snow 1
  • Weenie 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Kind of an interesting note on the 12z GFS.  Of all things an Eastern Pacific hurricane is the thing that finally ends up kicking everything into the right position to force a nice trough over us.  That hurricane has shown up on every run recently but what it will do exactly remains to be seen.  At least on this run it tracks properly to reposition and strengthen the NE Pacific block.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Going out to Anderson island again here in a few hours to go camping going to be a good one. 66 and sunny here now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The Canadian smoke model keeps the smoke out of our  area for the next 3 days at least.   It shows strong westerly flow at the upper levels and that really pushes everything east very efficiently.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In 2015 and 2016 I'd already have 12 thunderstorm days up to July 9. I'm at 3. lol

Could use a little monsoon flow!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looking at the 850 graph on the 12z GFS it isn't bad.  Pretty much normal or below from the 15th on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

In 2015 and 2016 I'd already have 12 thunderstorm days up to July 9. I'm at 3. lol

Could use a little monsoon flow!

I think dry is going to be the word for quite a while.  The dominance of the NE Pacific surface high is going to really kill any precip chances.  Down your way it might be a little more likely at some point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 12z ECMWF is really trying to get there.  That bloody trough really wants to get here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like the next big push of low clouds is going to be Wednesday night according to the ECMWF, but low clouds make it to the South Sound pretty much every day.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z ECMWF is really trying to get there.  That bloody trough really wants to get here.

Actually it doesn't... yet another run where the trough just stops on arrival and backs off.    And it shows a sunny weekend next week after a couple marine layer days late next week.   Not a big deal at all.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1625832000-1625832000-1626652800-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the next big push of low clouds is going to be Wednesday night according to the ECMWF, but low clouds make it to the South Sound pretty much every day.

2 out of 10 days on the 12Z ECMWF with a significant marine layer into the afternoon... that is pretty minor.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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