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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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76 here at noon... summer perfection today with wall-to-wall sunshine, no smoke, and a pleasantly warm but not hot temperature.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What the hell are you guys expecting. Some big trough with rain and mountain snow. LOL

At least the weather looks semi-tolerable the next couple weeks. A win in this climate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What the hell are you guys expecting. Some big trough with rain and mountain snow. LOL

At least the weather looks semi-tolerable the next couple weeks. A win in this climate. 

I guess marine layer days are the big score now in our new climate regime.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I guess marine layer days are the big score now in our new climate regime.    

Pretty much. The big score would be having them happen between mid-July and mid-August. We've had like 4-5 this year down here and maybe one lasted the entire day, so still pretty much non-existent. 25 years ago the big question would be if the layer would break at all. Now we get excited if it makes it past noon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Up to 80F so mid to upper 80s is looking like a good bet. Got down to 51F so that was nice.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty much. The big score would be having them happen between mid-July and mid-August. We've had like 4-5 this year down here and maybe one lasted the entire day, so still pretty much non-existent. 25 years ago the big question would be if the layer would break at all. Now we get excited if it makes it past noon. 

July 1996 was pretty toasty.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Marine layer burned off quite fast today and as result, it’s much warmer. Can’t complain though but very much preferred last couple days with the morning clouds and afternoon sunshine. 
 

Up to 74F with lots of sun!

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

July 1996 was pretty toasty.

7/17/96 though!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

7/17/96 though!!!

October 1996 was one of the only times I had a 90+ degree high in middle of fall.

There were some real indian Summers in the 90's and they seemed to have tapered since then. I'm lucky to get one or two 80's in a row in October now.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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What would the heatwave in late June been like if it was the first week of August in Portland? Statistically their hottest part of the summer and they could have had one more day in the 110's before it ended. Lows potentially warmer too.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

What would the heatwave in late June been like if it was the first week of August in Portland? Statistically their hottest part of the summer and they could have had one more day in the 110's before it ended. Lows potentially warmer too.

One of the things that seemed to make the heatwave more intense was it was close to the solstice. Had extra time for daytime heating to occur as well. Hard to say though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I haven't seen Shasta since the end of June so I can't say if there's white on it now. Probably only the tip.

But there was plenty of white on it before the 100's down here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12Z EPS... trough can't quite move into the PNW.    The large 4CH is pretty much in charge.   That does not mean hot here though. 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1625832000-1625832000-1627128000-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I haven't seen Shasta since the end of June so I can't say if there's white on it now. Probably only the tip.

But there was plenty of white on it before the 100's down here.

Here’s a webcam of Shasta from Mt Shasta City today. Almost completely barren.

0779A068-7EE7-4D92-B9B3-41564CC1F8AB.thumb.jpeg.4fe7b88ffd9372a1a7bfaa069d5cf655.jpeg

Up on Paulina Peak several days ago (8000’) there were no patches of snow at the summit at all. I believe normally you’d still expect to have some snow there. On a very clear day you can see Shasta from Paulina Peak but it was hazy and I could only see to about the Deschutes/Klamath divide. However Diamond Peak and Thielsen have a few patches left.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking at the 850 graph on the 12z GFS it isn't bad.  Pretty much normal or below from the 15th on.

12Z EPS shows below normal 850mb temps for about 2.5 out of the next 15 days.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Only about 16 more weeks until every clown range model gets looked at under a microscope looking for “The Goodies” 

And DJ resumes The Night Shift! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The Canadian smoke model keeps the smoke out of our  area for the next 3 days at least.   It shows strong westerly flow at the upper levels and that really pushes everything east very efficiently.  

There is some in the upper levels right now, but the HRRR concurs on the onshore flow keeping it out of the lower levels, and also says the stuff that’s aloft should clear out over the weekend.

But, someday, our luck will run out.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

85+ days at SEA in recent Julys.

2020: 5

2019: 3

2018: 16

2017: 5

2016: 3

2015: 12

Another similarity to 2017... July that year was consistently warm but not hot.   4 of those 5 days you indicated in July 2017 were exactly at 85.    There was only one day that month above 85 and that was 87 on 7/25.    And there was basically no rain at all in July 2017.     That it a tight rope to walk... with almost every single day between 70-85 and no rain and no heat.    Goldilocks weather.    We seem to be on a similar path this July.

SEA finished July 2017 at +1.6    I remember people on here saying that July could not have been more beautiful if you scripted it out.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, James Jones said:

Are there archived satellite loops anywhere? I feel like I remember somebody posting a link to one a few years back.

Here you go... goes back to 2007 for satellite images.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/archive.html

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another similarity to 2017... July that year was consistently warm but not hot.   4 of those 5 days you indicated in July 2017 were exactly at 85.    There was only one day that month above 85 and that was 87 on 7/25.    And there was basically no rain at all in July 2017.     That it a tight rope to walk... with almost every single day between 70-85 and no rain and no heat.    Goldilocks weather.    We seem to be on a similar path this July.

SEA finished July 2017 at +1.6    I remember people on here saying that July could not have been more beautiful if you scripted it out.  

 

Let's discuss August 2017. 

Looks like we get June 2015 on steroids followed by July 2014 and August 2017. KOOL. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's discuss August 2017. 

Looks like we get June 2015 on steroids followed by July 2014 and August 2017. KOOL. 

June 2015 was both warmer and drier for much of the PNW than June 2021.

July 2014 had nine 85+ days at SEA.

A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's discuss August 2017. 

Looks like we get June 2015 on steroids followed by July 2014 and August 2017. KOOL. 

We don't know how August 2021 will play out.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And that’s another one!! Up to 92F!

CB38E0DA-EF7E-4D14-979A-11CA2982A572.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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44 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Mesowest says Sunriver’s diurnal range has passed the 50-burger today. Low of 37 this morning, currently 88. Prineville also joined the 50 club with 91/41.

Alturas is the West Coast winner at 100/43 so far.

I may approach the mid-50's in diurnal change here. Right now 96/45. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We don't know how August 2021 will play out.

Since I don't think I've ever seen 3 toasty months in a row. August will cool but may still be a +1 type month.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Actually June 2021 was warmer than 2015 at many PNW locations, and even if it didn't beat 2015 in spots, 2015 blew away all other June's by so much that just being in the ballpark was in itself unimaginable. The false narrative Jim and Jared are pushing here is misleading and distracting. Sure the first week of July was not as hot as 2015, but it was hot, with no cool down in the foreseeable future. They want to talk about troughing when we are looking at 5-6 90+ days in a row. Seems like we have been seeing major west coast heatwaves every 2 weeks since the end of May, good chance we see another major stretch of 90s the last week of the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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