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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This pattern being shown for next weekend and into the following week appears to be different at the surface than our current pattern of the marine layer moving inland each morning and burning back to the coast... the ECMWF is insisting that this pattern is devoid of almost all marine layer clouds even at the coast.   Its just wall to wall sunshine for the most part after Saturday morning.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6652800.png

With very pleasant temps.  No hot weather at all on the meteograms.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The other thing we should mention. These fires really are related to climate change. Once an area like the Bootleg Fire is impacting burns, it will not regrow with the same vegetation that previously was there. Some of these areas may never be forested again (At least for the next few hundred years.), these fires are part of the process of climate change changing our region. 

Why do you say that?  The Yacolt fire early in the 20th century was one of the most explosive and large on record and everything came back.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

With very pleasant temps.  No hot weather at all on the meteograms.

In the absence of an inversion... you can probably go back to adding 3 or 4 degrees to the ECMWF output for Seattle.

It showed 77 at SEA yesterday and it was 82.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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38 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Death Valley 119 at 11 AM. Yesterday it was 115 at the same time. Hmmmmm

Sheesh...I spent some time there while I was in the army. Fortunately, it was during the cooler part of the year. They don't call it Death Valley for nothing.

 

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Looks like the GFS is on drugs again.  Going for a high of 87 for SEA and the noon temp there was 66.  Even the 80 the ECMWF is going for may be too high.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Sheesh...I spent some time there while I was in the army. Fortunately, it was during the cooler part of the year. They don't call it Death Valley for nothing.

 

That place is hell on Earth for sure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do you say that?  The Yacolt fire early in the 20th century was one of the most explosive and large on record and everything came back.

The Bootleg Fire is burning in an area with annual precipitation anywhere from 15-40" depending on elevation. That is also in long term drought, and transitioning towards a hotter and drier climate, especially in the summer. Cruelly it is also high elevation so it has a relatively short growing season. 

The Yacolt Burn was relatively low elevation temperate forest, in one of the wettest most favorable locations for upslope precip in the lower 48. It also took place 120 years ago when our climate was much different than it is now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There are places in SW Oregon where most of the conifers have died and the forest is in the process of transitioning to more of a NorCal type ecosystem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do you say that?  The Yacolt fire early in the 20th century was one of the most explosive and large on record and everything came back.

It really depends on where the fire burns. Brush fires are common in eastern WA, eastern OR, northern NV, southern Idaho, etc but when they burn in sagebrush steppe, oftentimes the vegetation will be replaced with invasive cheatgrass instead of sagebrush growing back.

Some areas simply take a very long time to recover, like the aforementioned Santiam Pass burn, which happened 18 years ago and it’s still a big field of dead sticks. Yacolt Burn was in the western Cascade foothills, where trees grow quickly. Trees grow slowly at 4000’+ on the eastside in Oregon. Remember, places like Sunriver and Chiloquin can freeze in July and August, in addition to being a dry climate even when not in drought, which it is right now.

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS is on drugs again.  Going for a high of 87 for SEA and the noon temp there was 66.  Even the 80 the ECMWF is going for may be too high.

Already 78 here just after 12 p.m.  

SEA will probably get into the low 80s by early evening.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already 78 here just after 12 p.m.  

SEA will probably get into the low 80s by early evening.

80 at SLE, running +3 on yesterday when they hit 92. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS through day 12... 4CH flexs its muscle again.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1625918400-1625918400-1626955200-10.gif

4CH is definitely centered farther east though, towards Colorado instead of towards Nevada like it is right now. Makes things pretty fiery for Montana, but comfortable weather here.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

4CH is definitely centered farther east though, towards Colorado instead of towards Nevada like it is right now. Makes things pretty fiery for Montana, but comfortable weather here.

Yeah... definitely prevents any real heat waves.   But the 4CH is also effective at making sure troughs can't really dig into the PNW.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, sand dune said:

We're good for those these days. Meanwhile, December and January are record warm.😆😂

Actually December has been cold overall since the late 1970s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Got together with the program team from my old job last night, and after dinner we ended up back at my old bosses house sitting out on his back deck.  He is on the NW side of Yew St. hill, and it was quite breezy, and to my surprise very chilly out.  Looks like the temps were around 66-68, but it felt a lot colder.  

Stayed up past 2am for the first time in I don't know how long, and I am feeling it today.

 

Currently 76 and looks a little hazy out.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice trend on the EPS.

 

cold.png

The quicker its gets in position offshore the faster the marine inversion gets wiped out and we go back to full sun.   

As it looks now... Wednesday is a transition day and then Thursday and Friday are pretty cloudy... and then Saturday is back to sun.  But if it comes in quicker then Friday might trend more sunny.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have moved beyond the realm of a rational discussion at this point. 

I think it's because it's a different world Seattle vs Salem.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think it's because it's a different world Seattle vs Salem.

It is. And I am not denying things have been a bit different up there, but our experience is more representative of the region as a whole. You are just luckily right next to a large body of water. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I really am almost dumbfounded how it's possible for the Willamette Valley to be so warm compared to normal for such a sustained period when compared to just 200 miles or so further north.  Really ridiculous actually.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's because it's a different world Seattle vs Salem.

And even worse further south but it feels like we’re not part of the region to you. You don’t care about us…I hope you care if our cities burn.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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26 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It really depends on where the fire burns. Brush fires are common in eastern WA, eastern OR, northern NV, southern Idaho, etc but when they burn in sagebrush steppe, oftentimes the vegetation will be replaced with invasive cheatgrass instead of sagebrush growing back.

Some areas simply take a very long time to recover, like the aforementioned Santiam Pass burn, which happened 18 years ago and it’s still a big field of dead sticks. Yacolt Burn was in the western Cascade foothills, where trees grow quickly. Trees grow slowly at 4000’+ on the eastside in Oregon. Remember, places like Sunriver and Chiloquin can freeze in July and August, in addition to being a dry climate even when not in drought, which it is right now.

i'm assuming you're talking about the B and B Complex Fire..."it's still a big field of dead sticks".  from the highway, yes, but the abundance of new vegetation is incredible.  it's flourishing.  

 

 

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Just now, sand dune said:

AQI reading of 154 in Spokane 😒

Have you ever experienced 500+ ppm for 10 days?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah another day that is sunny from the start here. You won't find me complaining!

Yeah this is definitely an all-or-nothing marine layer location. It often stays just to our west and we get a totally sunny day. But if it does come at all it often takes longer than anywhere else to burn off.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Have you ever experienced 500+ ppm for 10 days?

That was so surreal. We were staying in Eugene during the evacuation. Had to take my wife to urgent care the day of the evacuation because our cat was freaking out and literally tore her arm apart. I had to wait out in the parking lot because of COVID precautions and the ash was falling like snow. We had to leave the cats because they freaked out so much we could not get them in the pet carrier, but fortunately they ended up being fine. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think the air quality in Silverton was at 613 during the fires last fall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, sand dune said:

I'm talking about recent years. 2019 is a great example.

That was a sharp uptrend in temperature at that. Here's my numbers from Sep-Dec at KLMT in 2019 lol

Sep: -2.0, Oct: -3.3, Nov: +2.2, Dec: +4.8. Way to ruin one of the coolest ends of summer in a long time.

January 2020 was still warm with +2.8 but snowfall was actually decent. 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That was a sharp uptrend in temperature at that. Here's my numbers from Sep-Dec at KLMT in 2019 lol

Sep: -2.0, Oct: -3.3, Nov: +2.2, Dec: +4.8. Way to ruin one of the coolest ends of summer in a long time.

January 2020 was still warm with +2.8 but snowfall was actually decent. 

We just torched in December. I have a feeling this December will be different. A weak la niña should help.

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1 minute ago, sand dune said:

We just torched in December. I have a feeling this December will be different. A weak la niña should help.

We're due for snowy Decembers again. I don't mind if it's not cold; at least something above average for snow between turkey day and New Years happened quite a few times in the first half of the 2010's.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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23 minutes ago, sand dune said:

I'm talking about recent years. 2019 is a great example.

I'm hoping December getting less cold means January might make a comeback.  Our cold Januaries stopped right when all of those cold Decembers began.  Pretty surprising how February has turned into the cold month all of the sudden though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think the air quality in Silverton was at 613 during the fires last fall. 

Even up here we got into the 400s.  Just a surreal cherry on top of a surreal year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think the air quality in Silverton was at 613 during the fires last fall. 

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Even up here we got into the 400s.  Just a surreal cherry on top of a surreal year.

Got to the 480's here on the 12th. It was interesting too because it wasn't consistent. On the 10th we were under 20, then we just spiked up just the next day. For years we topped around 300 before that event. Briefly on PurpleAir we went over 500. But some people question their accuracy.

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Lets just say, there’s a chance that I’ve made the worst summer prediction in all of human history, and what actually happens ends up  being (almost) the opposite of my original idea.

Still think late August will roast but..lol.

I think we're definitely at the just wait and see what happens stage.  Things obviously haven't gone as planned although the pattern is much better now than late June.  I had really hoped we could knock out the 4CH this year with the strong Pacific ridge.  Strangely the surface pressure aspect is there, but the upper levels haven't quite followed suit.  I suppose the abnormally strong surface high dominating the NE Pacific explains much of the disconnect between NW OR and Western WA (especially from OLM northward).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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