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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Trough looks healthy on the 000z!

Thing of beauty. Nowhere else in the CONUS can match the bliss that is a PNW summer trough.

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well we are past it now... so you already know.

 

solar cycle.png
 

yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like?

or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like?

or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too

I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Unfortunately this is going to end up being just a complete monster. Probably going to be a megafire, that's a smoke signature that rivals one of the firestorms last September. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thursday just might be my first below 90 degree day since June 23rd. 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling.

Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions.

Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance.

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48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. 

Then more troughing on the 24th!

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Three troughs hit us on the 0z GFS.  A sight for sore eyes!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Then more troughing on the 24th!

That was a really good run on the GFS.  It's in a very good place at the end of the run too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Notably chillier ensemble mean also.  Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS extracted data shows a good shot at some sub 70 highs later in the month.  Let's hope we can hold onto it this time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions.

Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance.

So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying.  We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like the ECMWF is heading in a good direction also.  It appears the trough next week will be favorable for cool temps, but will probably not yield much precip.  Could be a shot at some cool mins with it as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  Compared to last night's 0z ECMWF the offshore blocking later next week is much more solid and able to deliver a good solid trough.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

Hmmm...try growing a pair.

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00Z ECMWF is sure consistent with the surface details from run to run.     Partly to mostly cloudy days on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 70s... and then becoming totally sunny on Saturday and highs again in mid 70s.

One thing to note... there will be no low level inversion on those days so the ECMWF cool bias will likely be back.  It shows 72 in Seattle on Saturday... but I am guessing that is really 75ish.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If you follow the actual center of low pressure... it gets down to the northern tip of Vancouver Island and then just spins itself out.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-toa_brightness-1625961600-1626393600-1626631200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Try growing a pair.

Considering I have two kids my pair are fully grown and functioning just fine, but thanks for checking in and making sure they are doing okay. 🥰

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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And Sunday looks spectacular on this run... sunny even on the coast with highs from the mid 70s to low 80s which is just like previous runs.   Its very deceiving because I would think the 500mb pattern could lead to convection.   

 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Monday and Tuesday are the same as Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF.    Looks like a period of spectacular weather from Saturday - Tuesday despite the troughing centered just offshore.  At least on this run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Considering I have two kids my pair are fully grown and functioning just fine, but thanks for checking in and making sure they are doing okay. 🥰

Has your wife let you have any input into their diets yet? 😱 Or do you just vent by whining/tattling about downvotes on a weather forum.
 

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At least it's not the same two people fighting... 🤷‍♂️

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying.  We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not.

I guess in October? We got down to 23F and that was it. Not that amplified.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Today will be one minute and thirty four seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 😁🌟

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, MossMan said:

Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 

Downvotes are his specialty. I think it’s cute. I can’t take getting downvoted (by someone who hands out downvotes like candy) in a weather forum (that practically nobody even knows about) very seriously.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Notably chillier ensemble mean also.  Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run.

The 00Z EPS and the latest GEFS don't show this.    Its more like a couple days of cooler than normal 850mb temps and then back to warmer than normal.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sun start to the day here... based on the loop the clouds in South King County formed in place and actually built towards the west rather than coming in the coast.    Looks like less smoke today as well but you can see the northern edge of the massive smoke plume from the Bootleg fire.

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210711.144117-over=map-bars=.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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