Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Trough looks healthy on the 000z! Thing of beauty. Nowhere else in the CONUS can match the bliss that is a PNW summer trough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yep it’s quite chilly out!! 55.9 is more like 56 than 55 ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Well we are past it now... so you already know. yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like? or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: yes…this chart was already posted. Are you saying I should take our exact weather patterns over the last 10 years and say - this is what the solar max/min cycle is supposed to look like? or just tell me to look it up on my own and that’s fine too I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: https://imgur.com/yBcNpnl Unfortunately this is going to end up being just a complete monster. Probably going to be a megafire, that's a smoke signature that rivals one of the firestorms last September. 2 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 56/72°F for the day. Now 61. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Thursday just might be my first below 90 degree day since June 23rd. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I don't think the effects on weather are really known... but supposedly a deep solar minimum can trigger global cooling. Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions. Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looks like we have some slightly cooler weather coming up followed by a return to 90s around the 20th. Then more troughing on the 24th! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Three troughs hit us on the 0z GFS. A sight for sore eyes! 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, Phil said: Then more troughing on the 24th! That was a really good run on the GFS. It's in a very good place at the end of the run too. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Notably chillier ensemble mean also. Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 The GFS extracted data shows a good shot at some sub 70 highs later in the month. Let's hope we can hold onto it this time. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 44 minutes ago, Phil said: Sometimes. It depends on very low frequency in-situ systemic boundary conditions. Same forcing can trigger very different responses from one century to the next, for reasons that may boil down to chance. So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying. We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. 2 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Looks like the ECMWF is heading in a good direction also. It appears the trough next week will be favorable for cool temps, but will probably not yield much precip. Could be a shot at some cool mins with it as well. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Wow! Compared to last night's 0z ECMWF the offshore blocking later next week is much more solid and able to deliver a good solid trough. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Missing the cloudy rainy winter nights🌧🌧 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. Hmmm...try growing a pair. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 00Z ECMWF is sure consistent with the surface details from run to run. Partly to mostly cloudy days on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 70s... and then becoming totally sunny on Saturday and highs again in mid 70s. One thing to note... there will be no low level inversion on those days so the ECMWF cool bias will likely be back. It shows 72 in Seattle on Saturday... but I am guessing that is really 75ish. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 If you follow the actual center of low pressure... it gets down to the northern tip of Vancouver Island and then just spins itself out. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Try growing a pair. Considering I have two kids my pair are fully grown and functioning just fine, but thanks for checking in and making sure they are doing okay. 1 2 5 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 And Sunday looks spectacular on this run... sunny even on the coast with highs from the mid 70s to low 80s which is just like previous runs. Its very deceiving because I would think the 500mb pattern could lead to convection. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Monday and Tuesday are the same as Sunday on the 00Z ECMWF. Looks like a period of spectacular weather from Saturday - Tuesday despite the troughing centered just offshore. At least on this run. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, MossMan said: Considering I have two kids my pair are fully grown and functioning just fine, but thanks for checking in and making sure they are doing okay. Has your wife let you have any input into their diets yet? Or do you just vent by whining/tattling about downvotes on a weather forum. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 At least it's not the same two people fighting... 4 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: So far the theory that deep solar mins can cause an increasingly amplified wave train seems to be verifying. We'll have to see if this aspect continues or not. I guess in October? We got down to 23F and that was it. Not that amplified. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Today will be one minute and thirty four seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 00Z EPS... 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 At this point I'll take any trough. Anything to drive out this persistently dry hot air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 GEFS is very similar... of course it looks way too warm for the next 3 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 7 hours ago, MossMan said: Judging by the mass number of downvotes this evening it would appear that Jesse has the night shift covered! Down voting dogs in boats, green lush grass, and temps in the 50’s…Interesting. Downvotes are his specialty. I think it’s cute. I can’t take getting downvoted (by someone who hands out downvotes like candy) in a weather forum (that practically nobody even knows about) very seriously. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Cloudy with a low of 54 this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 The r-word is in my NWS forecast! Quote .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain. Highs in the lower to mid 70s. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 8 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Notably chillier ensemble mean also. Above normal temps are done on the 15th according to this run. The 00Z EPS and the latest GEFS don't show this. Its more like a couple days of cooler than normal 850mb temps and then back to warmer than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Sun start to the day here... based on the loop the clouds in South King County formed in place and actually built towards the west rather than coming in the coast. Looks like less smoke today as well but you can see the northern edge of the massive smoke plume from the Bootleg fire. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Today will be one minute and thirty four seconds SHORTER than yesterday! Pumpkin spice latte 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 I looked at the map for the Bootleg fire. I didn't realize how close it was to the property my parents have. Good thing there isn't anything on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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