Timmy Supercell Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Good point Cliff. Wildfires because there's too many trees, and droughts are politics. We have too many people drinking water. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Wildfires because there's too many trees, and droughts are politics. We have too many people drinking water. Precisely what I said. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Verbatim, 12z GFS projects 7/15-7/27 averages slightly below normal on the westside. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Decent looking model runs today. Looks like a trough hits fairly solidly later this week and then another one a few days later. The 4CH gets displaced eastward....oh darn. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Verbatim, 12z GFS projects 7/15-7/27 averages slightly below normal on the westside. Yup. It's looking less likely the 4CH will make another run at us after the first trough. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Yup. It's looking less likely the 4CH will make another run at us after the first trough. Saving all its energy up for August I presume. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 I think the abnormal cold that makes it into NE BC later this week is kind of interesting on recent model runs as well. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Saving all its energy up for August I presume. We'll see. It is possible this summer has shot its wad already. Sometimes it goes that way. Just like a front loaded winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 The persistent abnormally strong and extensive NE Pacific high the last couple of couple of weeks is projected to continue. The PDO is going to be tanked by the end of this month...even more than it already is. Of course the bad part of the surface high is it presents little in the way of precip chances this time of year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We'll see. It is possible this summer has shot its wad already. Sometimes it goes that way. Just like a front loaded winter. Could be, but I have a hard time picturing August and September not torching. Niña summer climo!! Good job responding to a post quoting you, btw. Usually it seems like you just log in to spit out a monologue and leave. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The persistent abnormally strong and extensive NE Pacific high the last couple of couple of weeks is projected to continue. The PDO is going to be tanked by the end of this month...even more than it already is. Of course the bad part of the surface high is it presents little in the way of precip chances this time of year. Are there any numbers to back this up? 1030-1035mb offshore surface highs seem like pretty standard mid summer fare. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Are there any numbers to back this up? 1030-1035mb offshore surface highs seem like pretty standard mid summer fare. NPI is looking flabutastically flabbulous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 I don’t know if anyone remembers the show Doug on Nickelodeon, but I always imagine Jim being like Mr. Dink. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We'll see. It is possible this summer has shot its wad already. Sometimes it goes that way. Just like a front loaded winter. Given that I have a hard time imagining us getting a second heat wave this season of equal or greater intensity to the Big Bake we had late last month, a front-loaded summer is in some sense virtually a lock. That said, this still leaves plenty of room for things to torch. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 SLE still running about a -4 from yesterday at this time. May avoid a 90. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jesse said: I don’t know if anyone remembers the show Doug on Nickelodeon, but I always imagine Jim being like Mr. Dink. I remember Doug, but I don't really remember any of the other characters. We didn't get Nick so I never saw it until it moved to ABC in 1996, by that time I was a little old for it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Given that I have a hard time imagining us getting a second heat wave this season of equal or greater intensity to the Big Bake we had late last month, a front-loaded summer is in some sense virtually a lock. That said, this still leaves plenty of room for things to torch. Did you see that article about that heat wave being the most anomalous in the history of weather records on earth. Probably won’t see a repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 My wife has informed me Mr. Dink was Doug's neighbor. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I remember Doug, but I don't really remember any of the other characters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You keep saying July has been warm, which directly contradicts Mossman and Jim. lol I’ve been saying it’s warm because it is lol. Maybe not as bad as other places but still. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 32 minutes ago, Jesse said: NPI is looking flabutastically flabbulous. It’s pretty interesting how suddenly Jim jaded you’ve become over the last few months. Justified but kinda sad in a way. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 70 and sunny here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s pretty interesting how suddenly Jim jaded you’ve become over the last few months. Justified but kinda sad in a way. I just can’t get on board with a complete rejection of reality. I draw the line at a partial 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Looks like the enhanced trades have caused a little bit of cooling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I remember Doug, but I don't really remember any of the other characters. We didn't get Nick so I never saw it until it moved to ABC in 1996, by that time I was a little old for it. I was more into Ren and Stimpy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 2 hours ago, CloudBFIWx said: It’s definitely noticeably warmer. BFI is running couple degrees warmer than yesterday at this time and at home, it’s quite a few degrees warmer. Currently 72, but I’m starting to think the station I’m using as reference may be running too warm…. It always does. We’re 4 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time…72 now. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 New fire in the north cascades. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 It's pretty incredible looking at the 850mb temperature graph on the 12z GFS ensemble and seeing the entire last half of July devoid of above normal temps. Been a long time since we've seen that if it happens. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. That’s the sort of feeling i have this summer. I think the fall will be pleasantly wet Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 21 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I forget this is what you do. You find an indefensible argument and then never let it go. For much of the region the first half of June was actually warmer than normal. You tend to make statements that apply to your area/location, but often not other parts of the PNW. There's no doubt it's been notably warmer in the Willamette Valley than most of western WA. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Interesting how the SOI has been gradually trending upwards since February. Both Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 (which performed well in the PNW) were -SOI dominant months..interesting. Though both also followed SSW events, so could also be coincidence. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 95 in Spokane Valley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Literally zero difference in weather over a span of 1000 miles. 84/77 here, 88/76 back home. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Literally zero difference in weather over a span of 1000 miles. 84/77 here, 88/76 back home. Seems like a pretty mild evening down there in South Georgia. All my memories down there involve sweating. I feared summer down there like a person in North Dakota fears winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. Welcome aboard the Second Half Will Be Cooler train. There's plenty of room for more! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Welcome aboard the Second Half Will Be Cooler train. There's plenty of room for more! That'd have been like saying the second half of winter will be warmer after November/December 1985.... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: That'd have been like saying the second half of winter will be warmer after November/December 1985.... Pretty easy forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 11, 2021 Report Share Posted July 11, 2021 Nice little closed vort on the 18z! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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