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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good point Cliff. 

Wildfires because there's too many trees, and droughts are politics. We have too many people drinking water. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Decent looking model runs today.  Looks like a trough hits fairly solidly later this week and then another one a few days later.  The 4CH gets displaced eastward....oh darn.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim, 12z GFS projects 7/15-7/27 averages slightly below normal on the westside.

Yup.  It's looking less likely the 4CH will make another run at us after the first trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the abnormal cold that makes it into NE BC later this week is kind of interesting on recent model runs as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Saving all its energy up for August I presume.

We'll see.  It is possible this summer has shot its wad already.  Sometimes it goes that way.  Just like a front loaded winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The persistent abnormally strong and extensive NE Pacific high the last couple of couple of weeks is projected to continue.  The PDO is going to be tanked by the end of this month...even more than it already is.  Of course the bad part of the surface high is it presents little in the way of precip chances this time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  It is possible this summer has shot its wad already.  Sometimes it goes that way.  Just like a front loaded winter.

Could be, but I have a hard time picturing August and September not torching. Niña summer climo!!

Good job responding to a post quoting you, btw. Usually it seems like you just log in to spit out a monologue and leave.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The persistent abnormally strong and extensive NE Pacific high the last couple of couple of weeks is projected to continue.  The PDO is going to be tanked by the end of this month...even more than it already is.  Of course the bad part of the surface high is it presents little in the way of precip chances this time of year.

Are there any numbers to back this up? 1030-1035mb offshore surface highs seem like pretty standard mid summer fare.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  It is possible this summer has shot its wad already.  Sometimes it goes that way.  Just like a front loaded winter.

Given that I have a hard time imagining us getting a second heat wave this season of equal or greater intensity to the Big Bake we had late last month, a front-loaded summer is in some sense virtually a lock. That said, this still leaves plenty of room for things to torch.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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SLE still running about a -4 from yesterday at this time. May avoid a 90. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t know if anyone remembers the show Doug on Nickelodeon, but I always imagine Jim being like Mr. Dink.

 

I  remember Doug, but I don't really remember any of the other characters. We didn't get Nick so I never saw it until it moved to ABC in 1996, by that time I was a little old for it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Given that I have a hard time imagining us getting a second heat wave this season of equal or greater intensity to the Big Bake we had late last month, a front-loaded summer is in some sense virtually a lock. That said, this still leaves plenty of room for things to torch.

Did you see that article about that heat wave being the most anomalous in the history of weather records on earth.  Probably won’t see a repeat. 

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My wife has informed me Mr. Dink was Doug's neighbor. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You keep saying July has been warm, which directly contradicts Mossman and Jim. lol

I’ve been saying it’s warm because it is lol. Maybe not as bad as other places but still. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Jesse said:

NPI is looking flabutastically flabbulous.

It’s pretty interesting how suddenly Jim jaded you’ve become over the last few months. Justified but kinda sad in a way.😟

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s pretty interesting how suddenly Jim jaded you’ve become over the last few months. Justified but kinda sad in a way.😟

I just can’t get on board with a complete rejection of reality. I draw the line at a partial ;)

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I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, CloudBFIWx said:

It’s definitely noticeably warmer. BFI is running couple degrees warmer than yesterday at this time and at home, it’s quite a few degrees warmer. Currently 72, but I’m starting to think the station I’m using as reference may be running too warm…. It always does. 

We’re 4 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time…72 now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It's pretty incredible looking at the 850mb temperature graph on the 12z GFS ensemble and seeing the entire last half of July devoid of above normal temps.  Been a long time since we've seen that if it happens.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. 

That’s the sort of feeling i have this summer. I think the fall will be pleasantly wet

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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21 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I forget this is what you do. You find an indefensible argument and then never let it go. For much of the region the first half of June was actually warmer than normal. 

You tend to make statements that apply to your area/location, but often not other parts of the PNW.

There's no doubt it's been notably warmer in the Willamette Valley than most of western WA.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

Interesting how the SOI has been gradually trending upwards since February.

Both Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 (which performed well in the PNW) were -SOI dominant months..interesting. Though both also followed SSW events, so could also be coincidence.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Literally zero difference in weather over a span of 1000 miles. 84/77 here, 88/76 back home. :lol: 

Seems like a pretty mild evening down there in South Georgia. All my memories down there involve sweating. I feared summer down there like a person in North Dakota fears winter.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an early end to summer this year. However, I also think there is a good bet we see a significant heatwave in August. Just looking back at some of our big June heatwaves, they were often followed by another big one later on. Maybe a heat spike for a few days around mid-August and then a pattern crash and completely different Labor Day weekend this year. 

Welcome aboard the Second Half Will Be Cooler train.

There's plenty of room for more!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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