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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Any word on that fire in junction city TWL?

Still going. KEZI news in 30 so I’ll have more then

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Once again the problem going on here tonight is people are talking about two different things.  I'm talking about what is coming while others are talking about the current situation.  Obviously it has been dry and warmer than normal for a while now.  Nobody is denying that.  Unfortunately the troughs coming up are going to be pretty dry for the most part, but it will be cool.

I wasn’t arguing with you at all. I’m glad we have no heatwaves coming up. Should be smoke free for the foreseeable future. I was just talking about how dry it’s been lately. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still going. KEZI news in 30 so I’ll have more then

Hopefully it just ends up being a minor situation. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Once again the problem going on here tonight is people are talking about two different things.  I'm talking about what is coming while others are talking about the current situation.  Obviously it has been dry and warmer than normal for a while now.  Nobody is denying that.  Unfortunately the troughs coming up are going to be pretty dry for the most part, but it will be cool.

You are 100% confident that you are right and the EPS is totally wrong? 

Why are you upset that people are taking what you say with a grain of salt and be a little cautious given that EPS does not see weeks of cold weather coming like you do?  When you always promise cold troughs... no one know when its actually real or not.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-5961600.png

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Even the insane warm biased GFS has a high in the 60s later this week in SEA.  Going to be nice!

Yes... looks like a permanent pattern change.

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6048000.png

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Everything Jim has been saying is factual based on what the model outputs show, he has not promised anything in any way like others are saying he has.  But I guess Dbags gotta be Dbags constantly. 

Jim wants to know why is he is getting push back again.   I explained.   There are always model runs to support cold troughing.   That is why he said the last week of June would be cold and troughy... and why it looked like July 1954 incoming... and why he said instead of summer starting on July 5th it might end on July 5th.   That is great if you want to cheerlead and there is nothing wrong with that... but don't expect everyone to fall in line and believe everything you say will actually happen.  👍

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jim wants to know why is he is getting push back again.   I explained.   There are always model runs to support cold troughing.   That is why he said the last week of June would be cold and troughy... and why it looked like July 1954 incoming... and why he said instead of summer starting on July 5th it might end on July 5th.   That is great if you want to cheerlead and there is nothing wrong with that... but don't expect everyone to fall in line and believe everything you say will actually happen.  👍

Still no reason for y'all to be douchebags!  Which is what is happening.

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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Spent the day visiting this majestic and hiking down the 1/2 mile trail to the river. Lovely! 

FC79B27C-5091-4AEC-93FA-FE8D0013CA69.jpeg

 

You were in my neck of the woods! 

And we were up in Bellingham today.   

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Still no reason for y'all to be douchebags!  Which is what is happening.

Certainly not my intent.   

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36 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

It'll only be a matter of time before the winds shifts and we'll be socked in smoke. Looks absolutely horrible. 

There are absolutely no signs of offshore flow for the foreseeable future. Even backing flow of any kind looks unlikely.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The 0z ensemble continues its slow cooling trend.  Now it drops below normal on the 15th and remains at least slightly below normal the entire remainder of the run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

You were in my neck of the woods! 

And we were up in Bellingham today.   

We work on a limited time frame when it comes to our summers here so have to take advantage of it with every chances. Especially over the past year with the pandemic. Speaking of Bellingham, we'll be going to the San Juans sometimes in early August and then Chelan/Diablo Lakes. That should probably round out the summer around here. 

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Still no reason for y'all to be douchebags!  Which is what is happening.

If “y’all” also implies me I didn’t say anything rude at all to him. I actually had a good talk with him over PM a few days ago and apologized for calling him crazy and that any disagreements I had with his posts wouldn’t be mixed in with insults. 
 As for saying Jim makes no predictions…Jim actually makes predictions based on the models sometimes. Not sure where that came from. Our disagreement with what he’s saying is our interpretation of what the models are showing versus what he’s saying. I myself atleast am not being rude about it. But don’t act like Jim doesn’t catch some shade sometimes for no reason. Still like the guy and even though I disagree with what he says sometimes I don’t dislike him. Sometimes he is right!

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There are absolutely no signs of offshore flow for foreseeable future. Even backing flow of any kind looks unlikely.

You're exactly right but I don't think it'll happen this month but perhaps in August or September. I just hope by then a lot of these fires are under control. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If “y’all” also implies me I didn’t say anything rude at all to him. I actually had a good talk with him over PM a few days ago and apologized for calling him crazy and that any disagreements I had with his posts wouldn’t be mixed in with insults. 
 As for saying Jim makes no predictions…Jim actually makes predictions based on the models sometimes. Not sure where that came from. Our disagreement with what he’s saying is our interpretation of what the models are showing versus what he’s saying. I myself atleast am not being rude about it. But don’t act like Jim doesn’t catch some shade sometimes for no reason. Still like the guy and even though I disagree with what he says sometimes I don’t dislike him. Sometimes he is right!

Yes... there will be troughing at times and if you always predict troughing then sometimes you will be right.  👍

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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

You're exactly right but I don't think it'll happen this month but perhaps in August or September. I just hope by then a lot of these fires are under control. 

Eventually we will have to pay the price... we snuck through all of July 2017 but the smoke got us finally in August.

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2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

You're exactly right but I don't think it'll happen this month but perhaps in August or September. I just hope by then a lot of these fires are under control. 

Hard to say.  Many of the current fires will likely be contained before any backside pattern change so it will come down to how the fire season evolves over there. With the troughing, the east side will be quite windy at times.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Could still take several hours to days to contain the fire in Junction City according to KEZI.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Could still take several hours to days to contain the fire in Junction City according to KEZI.

How many acres is it?

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The fire situation is getting pretty bad in the southern half of bc. About 350,000 acres burned so far with about 300 active fires.  It does look like some areas will receive some rain later this week. 

That might our biggest issue with smoke later in the summer... it came from the north in 2017 as well. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

How many acres is it?

Sounds like its a sawdust pile at a lumber yard... but did spread to an adjacent field but they got that out. 

https://www.kezi.com/content/news/Brush-fire-blazes--574812731.html

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF still shows sunshine and mid 70s by Saturday afternoon... quick rebound.

Does show a high of 69 here which would be our coolest day in a month. Only a couple hundredths of rain at best though. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Does show a high of 69 here which would be our coolest day in a month. Only a couple hundredths of rain at best though. 

Yeah... Friday is the best candidate for a sub-70 day.     It would be so nice to just get a soaking rain for a few hours.

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

How many acres is it?

Unknown. Probly not huge yet but it’s been spot firing into the grass. If we start to see our grass burn then our economy won’t recover.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The fire is on the far SE side of town so not any urbanized area in that immediate vicinity with winds out of the N.

View from downtown Eugene on the news…

59D2A942-DF0F-4607-A71F-61AE849C3266.png

 

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Yet another ECMWF that shows full sunshine and almost no low clouds anywhere from Saturday afternoon onward.    Regardless of what happens beforehand... that has been consistent once the trough bottoms out and starts to pull back.

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Should slow down some overnight but if it’s still not contained by tomorrow evening then things are looking pretty dicey.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The Sunday-Wednesday period might be an example of a set up in which cooler than normal 850mb temps can lead to warmer than normal surface temps.   And the ECMWF cool bias will be in play without an inversion.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t850_anom_stream-6912000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6912000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6912000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Sunday-Wednesday period might be an example of a set up in which cooler than normal 850mb temps can lead to warmer than normal surface temps.   And the ECMWF cool bias will be in play without an inversion.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t850_anom_stream-6912000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6912000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6912000.png

Not everywhere, Hoquiam has been averaging below normal with daily high temps.

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not everywhere, Hoquiam has been averaging below normal with daily high temps.

I am referring to a week from now.   But I don't know much about the temps on the coast. 

Side note... HQM was +1 on the high today.

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