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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Yep, 1 day doesn't count for 12 days.

HQM has been socked in fairly often lately while it's been very sunny over here.  

Regardless... a set up with sun on the coast after the trough might result in warmer surface temps there too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Everything Jim has been saying is factual based on what the model outputs show, he has not promised anything in any way like others are saying he has.  But I guess Dbags gotta be Dbags constantly. 

The rhetoric in here has become downright stupid.

The first trough arrives in just 4 days. All that talk about the 4CH preventing the troughs from digging into the PNW was just heat miser wishcasting..mostly from one person.

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

There are absolutely no signs of offshore flow for the foreseeable future. Even backing flow of any kind looks unlikely.

Those labeling Jim crazy are (unironically) the ones guilty of spewing the most ridiculous hyperbole.

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Let it be known the EPS didn’t catch the upcoming troughing until it was inside 8 days.

If you’re serious about analyzing those D10-15 maps, make sure you’re doing so within the proper context.

Otherwise you’re just misleading people, including yourself.

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As of midnight the Grandview Fire in Central Oregon was 2,000 acres. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Today will be one minute and thirty eight seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 🙂👍

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

There are absolutely no signs of offshore flow for the foreseeable future. Even backing flow of any kind looks unlikely.

That’s great, but we have about 2 months to go, see my tagline about clown range, and odds strongly favor offshore flow at some point in the next two months.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

The rhetoric in here has become downright stupid.

The first trough arrives in just 4 days. All that talk about the 4CH preventing the troughs from digging into the PNW was just heat miser wishcasting..mostly from one person.

No its an observation based on the EPS.     A trough digs into the PNW for a couple days and then appears to be pushed back.    I will say it again... when the EPS is consistently warm then it probably won't be cold.    To say its going to be cold for 2 weeks and completely ignore the EPS might be wishcasting.   

Here is the 00Z run... a trough does indeed come into the PNW.     But it does not last.  The battle with the 4CH is real.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626048000-1626048000-1627344000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1626048000-1626048000-1627344000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6048000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Let it be known the EPS didn’t catch the upcoming troughing until it was inside 8 days.

If you’re serious about analyzing those D10-15 maps, make sure you’re doing so within the proper context.

Otherwise you’re just misleading people, including yourself.

There is some irony here... I posted about the EPS on July 1st and said it did not look troughy at day 10 which was July 11th.   Spoiler alert... it was not troughy yesterday.  

You said that the warmth does not last on the EPS and we are back into a trough by day 14 and 15.   Which is exactly when the troughing will arrive.   The EPS actually did show a troughy signal for this period coming up as soon as it came into view at 15 days out... and you were all over it and it was right.   

 

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58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No its an observation based on the EPS.     A trough digs into the PNW for a couple days and then appears to be pushed back.    I will say it again... when the EPS is consistently warm then it probably won't be cold.    To say its going to be cold for 2 weeks and completely ignore the EPS might be wishcasting.   

Here is the 00Z run... a trough does indeed come into the PNW.     But it does not last.  The battle with the 4CH is real.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626048000-1626048000-1627344000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1626048000-1626048000-1627344000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6048000.png

I don’t understand how stating what the models are LITERALLY showing is wishcasting hyperbole. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Anyone have a good projection when the smoke will make it to pdx?

There’s no real projection on when it’ll happen. Still have onshore flow for the foreseeable future. Just depends on when we start getting offshore winds from the north or east…or another potential is southerly winds importing smoke from California. So far none of those is imminent. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Normal result of a predominantly normal PNW summer thus far.

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

Outside of that same crazy week, OLM has seen one 90+ day, and two 85+ days.

It was an extreme event that massively skewed anomalies in a few days time, but that doesn't mean it will end up defining the summer...that remains to be seen, but it's now safe to say we're going have at least 3 weeks after it that had no real region-wide heat.

The bigger story to me is the lack of precip since mid June. Hard to imagine how bad things would be if there hadn't been those two big storms the first half of June.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

Outside of that same crazy week, OLM has seen one 90+ day, and two 85+ days.

It was an extreme event that massively skewed anomalies in a few days time, but that doesn't mean it will end up defining the summer...that remains to be seen, but it's now safe to say we're going have at least 3 weeks after it that had no real region-wide heat.

The bigger story to me is the lack of precip since mid June. Hard to imagine how bad things would be if there hadn't been those two big storms the first half of June.

SEA might not be the best representation of the Puget Sound region now... for the opposite reason as before.

July so far:

WFO SEA +3.9

BLI +3.5

OLM +2.5

Its been a pretty warm month.

Out here its been warmer than SEA on 10 out of 11 days so far and my area has about the same average high as SEA at this time of year.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I see the Euro had below normal 850s for the PNW lowlands from 3 days from now all the way through day 10.

See my post from last night... that does not result in cold temps at the surface.   

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA might not be the best representation of the Puget Sound region now... for the opposite reason as before.

July so far:

WFO SEA +3.9

BLI +3.5

OLM +2.5

Its been a pretty warm month.

Not to mention the positive anomalies across the PNW. The SEA area and the immediate WA coast are an exception to the heat and really shouldn’t be used as a gauge for the whole region. Cities like Spokane, Yakima, Portland, Eugene, Salem and Klamath falls are running even bigger positive anomalies for this summer. It’s been more tolerable definitely but even here it’s above normal. Not sure how we keep having this conversation. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA might not be the best representation of the Puget Sound region now... for the opposite reason as before.

July so far:

WFO SEA +3.9

BLI +3.5

OLM +2.5

Its been a pretty warm month.

Yeah, but even Seattle WFO will be 3+ weeks into the month with no days warmer than 85. Far cry from Julys like 2015, 2018, etc.

As you said before, it's been similar to July 2017. But now it's clear the third week of this month will be quite a bit cooler than it was in 2017.

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

Outside of that same crazy week, OLM has seen one 90+ day, and two 85+ days.

It was an extreme event that massively skewed anomalies in a few days time, but that doesn't mean it will end up defining the summer...that remains to be seen, but it's now safe to say we're going have at least 3 weeks after it that had no real region-wide heat.

The bigger story to me is the lack of precip since mid June. Hard to imagine how bad things would be if there hadn't been those two big storms the first half of June.

Who would have thought you’d ever be cherry picking SEA to prove how not warm the weather has been. 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Who would have thought you’d ever be cherry picking SEA to prove how not warm the weather has been. 

You’re also +7 or +8 for July by now I’d imagine? 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking. If you take out the week of the heatwave, SEA is running about +1.2 for the rest of the summer so far.

Outside of that same crazy week, OLM has seen one 90+ day, and two 85+ days.

It was an extreme event that massively skewed anomalies in a few days time, but that doesn't mean it will end up defining the summer...that remains to be seen, but it's now safe to say we're going have at least 3 weeks after it that had no real region-wide heat.

The bigger story to me is the lack of precip since mid June. Hard to imagine how bad things would be if there hadn't been those two big storms the first half of June.

Funny, because outside of one "crazy week" most of the good winters in the PNW would be utter sh*t.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers first half of summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

Fixed.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Funny, because outside of one "crazy week" most of the good winters in the PNW would be utter sh*t.

Yeah, but that has more to do with snowfall. People look at summer a bit differently than winter, I think you'd agree.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

This is so stupid... you have been calling out Jim and Phil as well for over-promising troughing.  If the EPS showed troughing for 2 weeks then I would say it shows troughing for 2 weeks.    It is what it is.  

I hope the ECMWF is right and it actually rains here on Friday... that would be wonderful.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but that has more to do with snowfall. People look at summer a bit differently than winter, I think you'd agree.

Nah, historically we are a very temperate climate for both.

I don't expect multiple bunches of days of 100+ in an extreme summer any more than I expect multiple bunches of days with highs below 25 in an extreme winter. It'd be a moronic assessment to act like that should be the standard.

The fact that we haven't (thus far... a whopping third of the way through the season) seen any other stretches of very high end heat doesn't really mean anything in terms of analyzing this summer across the region.

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It has been unusually sunny and consistently warm out here in the cold, wet foothills of the Cascades.   At least call it what it is... and don't try to tell me this has been a normal summer that is about to turn much more chilly for the long term.

Even in July of 2015 it was in the low 70s out here on 7/10 and 7/11 and we had highs in the upper 60s on 7/25 and 7/26.   We get troughs even in the warmest summer.   But its still a warm summer.   We will have a trough and much cooler weather later this week.   But I doubt it lasts long.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

If you take away the 7 hottest days of the summer (so far) and then only look at the coolest station relative to average in the entire region, then it's actually only been kind of reasonably warm you guys. 

 

Duh.

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really will define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

I don't know how it could more sunny out here for the last month... it reminds me of 2017 and 2018 in terms of consistent sunshine and persistent warmth.    And the complete opposite of 2019 which might have been statistically warm but with frequent rain and clouds.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been unusually sunny and consistently warm out here in the cold, wet foothills of the Cascades.   At least call it what it is... and don't try to tell me this has been a normal summer that is about to turn much more chilly for the long term.

 

I didn't say either one of those things.

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