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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't know how it could more sunny out here for the last month... it reminds me of 2017 and 2018 in terms of consistent sunshine and persistent warmth.    And the complete opposite of 2019 which might have been statistically warm but with frequent rain and clouds.

So now the measurement is sunshine? 

Of course, as you know many areas to the west of you have felt the affects of the onshore flow marine layer quite a bit more over the past couple weeks.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I really hope this trough can bring to BC... it does not look so bad on the satellite up there this morning but it could be about to explode.

 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-ca_reg_west-02-15_10Z-20210712_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again, I referenced OLM as well. Outside of that one 4-5 day stretch, there has been very little region-wide heat. And that's something we're going to be able to say 10 days from now as well, very likely.

Simply a different type of summer than the big boys like 1958, 2009, 2015, and 2018.

But the second half and mainly August will really will define things. If it goes the way of 2017, we've got a record or near record warm summer many places. But if August goes the way of 2006, this summer will have a far different context historically.

 

You're just making stuff up now.

In 2009, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave was 92. In 2021, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave has already been 93.

In 2018, OLM's hottest temperature for the entire summer was 96. A number they have exceeded by 14 degrees in 2021. Different type of summer is right!

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

So now the measurement is sunshine? 

Of course, as you know many areas to the west of you have felt the affects of the onshore flow marine layer quite a bit more over the past couple weeks.

Sure... low level inversion.   But my area tells the story about the overall pattern because we don't have endless sunshine and consistent warmth with troughing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I wonder how February 1989 would have turned out if you took away February 1989? 

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

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Back in July 2015 SLE started the month with 90+ temps on 7 of the first 8 days, but then went 9 days without a 90+ temp, after a quick heatwave they then went 9 more days until the big heatwave to close the month. Will be interesting to see if SLE can avoid the 90 degree mark for that long this year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

This place gives me a good laugh every now and then. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like SLE could pump off two more 90+ days before things start to cool off a bit, chances for sub-80 highs Thursday and Friday. July 2015 had 7 sub-80 high temps. 

Also interesting looking at the month so far, only 2 60+ lows at SLE. At least we have been getting some relief at night. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2016-17 was a good complete winter. I would take that one over 2013-14 any day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m having a crapton of anxiety that it might actually be cool for a few days during one of our hottest summers on record and it seems like drumming my fingers on a keyboard is the only thing that will make me feel better. Any advice guys?

Downvote everybody and everything you don’t like. Soothes the soul. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There is some irony here... I posted about the EPS on July 1st and said it did not look troughy at day 10 which was July 11th.   Spoiler alert... it was not troughy yesterday.  

You said that the warmth does not last on the EPS and we are back into a trough by day 14 and 15.   Which is exactly when the troughing will arrive.   The EPS actually did show a troughy signal for this period coming up as soon as it came into view at 15 days out... and you were all over it and it was right.   

 

No it didn’t.

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For the sake of accuracy, this is what the EPS was depicting for this troughy period on July 1st, versus now.

365B72D3-7632-43A1-9005-6DB3C7DE8A54.gif

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On 7/1/2021 at 12:51 PM, Phil said:


That ridge barely lasts 2 days. Then it’s back to troughing, if anything.

6938DB27-0DC3-4975-AE5A-4D8B0204253C.gif

For the sake of accuracy... here is your post from July 1st highlighting the EPS showing a troughy signal for later this week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

For the sake of accuracy... here is your post from July 1st highlighting the EPS showing a troughy signal for later this week.

To which you responded with a blood red 850mb map. :lol: 

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58 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You're just making stuff up now.

In 2009, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave was 92. In 2021, OLM's hottest temperature outside of the big heat wave has already been 93.

In 2018, OLM's hottest temperature for the entire summer was 96. A number they have exceeded by 14 degrees in 2021. Different type of summer is right!

Obviously the June 2021 heatwave far exceeded any other heatwave on record. No one was disputing that, and that was not my point, as you well know.

OLM hit 85+ 23 times in 2009. They hit 90+ 11 times, including 3 heat events separate from the big heatwave.

In 2018, they hit 85+ 28 times. 90+ 14 times.

They are running well behind both those paces in 2021, and that gap will grow over the next 10 days.

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Just now, Phil said:

To which you responded with a blood red 850mb map. :lol: 

I said back then that when the EPS shows persistent warm 850mb temps... its probably going to stay warm.   And the first half of July will indeed end up warmer than normal.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

What is the summer equivalent to third snowiest February on record at SEA?

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So we have had almost uninterrupted warmth for the last month in most places... while Phil and Jim have been basically promising troughing and colder weather coming soon for that entire time.    But THIS time they want everyone to believe a major pattern change is coming and are upset that no one believes them.   👍

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54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Interestingly winter 2020-21 would have almost certainly been the warmest on record in a good number of places if you took away that one crazy week from February 9-15.

 

It was absolutely one of the warmest on record for here as we had a positive temp departure in Feb and people otherwise had no idea the weather pattern was different at the surface and the local mets talked about how it was one of the warmest "winters" we've ever had.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE could pump off two more 90+ days before things start to cool off a bit, chances for sub-80 highs Thursday and Friday. July 2015 had 7 sub-80 high temps. 

Also interesting looking at the month so far, only 2 60+ lows at SLE. At least we have been getting some relief at night. 

Of course, worth noting that of SLE's 90+ highs this month, only one has exceeded 92. And two just touched 90.

Bit different than how 2015 started.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Of course, worth noting that of SLE's 90+ highs this month, only one has exceeded 92. And two just touched 90.

Bit different than how 2015 started.

Do you know what you are arguing anymore or have even you lost track?

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Obviously the June 2021 heatwave far exceeded any other heatwave on record. No one was disputing that, and that was not my point, as you well know.

OLM hit 85+ 23 times in 2009. They hit 90+ 11 times, including 4 heat events separate from the big heatwave.

In 2018, they hit 85+ 28 times. 90+ 14 times.

They are running well behind both those paces in 2021, and that gap will grow over the next 10 days.

It's July 12.

At this point in both 2009 and 2018 they had had six days of 85+, versus nine so far this year (plus a whole slew of 83 and 84 degree days there this year).

Again, you're making stuff up.

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said back then that when the EPS shows persistent warm 850mb temps... its probably going to stay warm.   And the first half of July will indeed end up warmer than normal.   

But it showed warm 850mb temps July 15-20+ as well, which was wrong. And it missed the marine layer, ended up being way too warm. The GFS/GEFS was even worse in that regard.

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm sure all your downvotes and the continued discussion they create really helps make this a better forum.

At least no one can say you aren't doing your part.

Lions and tigers and downvotes, oh my!

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Most of the BC interior is under heat warnings for the next 3 days. Just enough onshore flow to keep things in check on the coast.  Could be a tough week for the fire crews if there is any wind.  Sounds like the big Fire north of Kamloops jumped the fire guards over the weekend but it’s been too smoky for them to get in and see how far it’s moved. 

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Some guidance wants to blow up multiple EPAC hurricanes week-2, in response to the CCKW passage (plausible).

In which case, predictability over the NPAC could drop substantially.

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Just now, Phil said:

But it showed warm 850mb temps July 15-20+ as well, which was wrong. And it missed the marine layer, ended up being way too warm. The GFS/GEFS was even worse in that regard.

 

I said 2 weeks ago that when I see warm 850mb temps on the EPS for 2 straight weeks... its probably going to stay warm.   It definitely has stayed warm for those 2 weeks.  

Right now I see a weak trough for later this week and then a return to warm on the EPS.    That is probably a good guide if you want to make a forecast for the second half of July.   

If you want to say its going to turn cold on the 15th and stay cold then go ahead.   That is what Jim is saying.   And I am guessing he will be wrong once again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dunno but an all time record heatwave that literally killed hundreds of people in the region would probably trump it.

Not sure if it was posted here or not, I don’t read every page, but I think Yale university wrote an article about it being the most anomalous heat wave ever recorded on earth. 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So we have had almost uninterrupted warmth for the last month in most places... while Phil and Jim have been basically promising troughing and colder weather coming soon for that entire time.    But THIS time they want everyone to believe a major pattern change is coming and are upset that no one believes them.   👍

False narratives as usual from you.

Enjoy the troughing!

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July 2021 is looking like a June 2015 at this point here. More 90's show up after 2 or 3 temperatures in the 80's.

I don't yet see any average highs occurring in the near future.

Interesting fact, 8 below avg highs in a row happened July 8-15 2015. My last one was June 15th.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if it was posted here or not, I don’t read every page, but I think Yale university wrote an article about it being the most anomalous heat wave ever recorded on earth. 

May very well have been a 1 in 1000 year type event for some places, even with our warming climate.

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's July 12.

At this point in both 2009 and 2018 they had had six days of 85+, versus nine so far this year (plus a whole slew of 83 and 84 degree days there this year).

Again, you're making stuff up.

I said pace. Meaning where we're at now compared to where the summer ended up. And OLM had seven 85+ days through 7/12/2018 (when they hit 90). They are not hitting 85 today.

2009 and 2018 had a big surge in both 85+ and 90+ days in July. That's looking highly unlikely at this point. 2018 added four more 85+ days from 7/13 - 7/16, and two more 90+ days. And then a crap ton more the last 10 days of the month.

But yes, it's still early...

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

False narratives as usual from you.

Enjoy the troughing!

I will very much enjoy the troughing... would kill for some rain.     I know it probably won't last long before the 4CH flexes its muscle again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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