Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: You’re on your own on that one. Your frothy write-ups about the much revered 2006-13 period make your last few weeks here look like some serious hackery. How does the last significant -PDO period, which did in fact feature a lot more Arctic intrusions into the PNW, relate to this July? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: For the record... you are predicting that colder than normal 850mb temps will dominate the next 2 weeks (second half of July) and I am wrong basing my thoughts on the EPS? I just want to make sure. I don’t think I mentioned 850s. That’s you. But yes, I suspect the third week of July will average below normal. 4th week is debatable with a CCKW passage, which could lead to a few warm days and turn the average positive, but that would be very transient. I don’t see sustained warmth out there until the middle of August, at earliest. Am worried about a big league heat spike August 15-25th, but not 100% sold on it. Just a window where the likelihood of a heatwave is (relatively) increased. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: At Pendleton, 2009 had nine days of 90+ versus 26 so far this year. At Spokane, 2009 had four days of 90+ versus 21 so far this year. At Roseburg, 2009 had three days of 90+ versus 20 so far this year. At SEA, 2009 had 12 days of 80+ versus 16 so far this year. Seems like the regional numbers tell a similar story. If you made a better faith effort then I don't think people would call you out so much, but alas you've always kind of done this extreme devil's advocate thing. Now you're randomly bringing in places like Pendleton and Spokane? You realize it's a whole other climate over there, right? That's never been part of the discussion I've been involved in. Westside, the lowlands...where OLM also resides. Along with the vast majority of the people on here. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I don’t think I mentioned 850s. That’s you. But yes, I suspect the third week of July will average below normal. 4th week is debatable with a CCKW passage, which could lead to a few warm days and turn the average positive, but that would be very transient. I don’t see sustained warmth out there until the middle of August, at earliest. Got it. So next week will be regionally colder than normal according to you. Duly noted. We will score this on 7/25 for the 7/18-24 period which is the 3rd week of July. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 The lord is good. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Now you're randomly bringing in places like Pendleton and Spokane? You realize it's a whole other climate over there, right? That's never been part of the discussion I've been involved in. Westside, the lowlands...where OLM also resides. Along with the vast majority of the people on here. Like I said, narrowing your view. The fact that you don't believe that the region stretches more than 50 miles from OLM in any direction is your issue, not mine. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 11 hours ago, snow_wizard said: The 0z ensemble continues its slow cooling trend. Now it drops below normal on the 15th and remains at least slightly below normal the entire remainder of the run. The 12Z GEFS shows 850mb temps a little warmer than normal all of next week. The colder than normal temps are focused on 2-3 days later this week. In addition... the 500mb pattern being shown for next is not favorable for marine layer clouds or inversions. So even normal 850mb temps are likely to result in warmer than normal surface temps in a sunny pattern. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 12z ensembles look decent. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: There’s really no other place to discuss in detail the PNW climate is the main reason I’ve stayed. Im a weather nerd when it comes to the PNW and I need other people just as interested as I am to understand and discuss stuff with and there’s nowhere else online. I do like pretty much everyone on here even if I disagree with some of what’s said. I'm glad we have you and everyone else we have here. Nerds of all shapes, sizes, skin depth, and weather preferences. Your last sentence is a fine approach...although to truly be happy here, some members would recommend a healthy dose of making things personal, along with a side of down-voting-the-hell-out-of-the-forum as a way of expressing your happiness. 2 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: How does the last significant -PDO period, which did in fact feature a lot more Arctic intrusions into the PNW, relate to this July? Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art. You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed. It just paints a very clear picture. 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: May very well have been a 1 in 1000 year type event for some places, even with our warming climate. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/ 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art. You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed. It just paints a very clear picture. Stop making things accurate/personal!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 43 minutes ago, Jesse said: There have been a few others (TacomaWx, etc) and I really can’t blame them. Some members may recommend you grow a pair. 1 1 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Great example of playing up and downplaying as a fine art. You spent many hours trying to paint that period in the most favorable light possible, shifting time frames and coming up with hypotheticals about how one event or another could have more impressive if only this variable had changed. It just paints a very clear picture. Those are some pretty vague statements. I think history has shown that period does standout for the 21st century so far. The -PDO aspect probably wasn't coincidence. Other than that, I'm not sure what you're getting at...like any other period the past 20+ years, if we had got some of those patterns to happen in January rather than early or late in the season (Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc), the results likely would have been more impressive from an absolute temps point of view. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Like I said, narrowing your view. The fact that you don't believe that the region stretches more than 50 miles from OLM in any direction is your issue, not mine. This idea that July hasn't torched so far is laughable. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Some members may recommend you grow a pair. I’m still here ain’t I? I don’t think I’ve ever whined about being downvoted, and I’ve gotten plenty, many deserved. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 The Grandview Fire in Central Oregon has now grown to 4,000 acres. No word on containment, but I know they are throwing a lot of resources at it. Good news the fire down by LaPine was contained at 54 acres. Jack Fire's growth has slowed considerably over the past few days, it is 10% contained and just under 11,000 acres. It has mostly moved into the rugged terrain outside the North Umpqua canyon. Bootleg Fire checks in at 153,535 acres. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Those are some pretty vague statements. I think history has shown that period does standout for the 21st century so far. The -PDO aspect probably wasn't coincidence. Other than that, I'm not sure what you're getting at...like any other period the past 20+ years, if we had got some of those patterns to happen in January rather than early or late in the season (Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Dec 2013, etc), the results likely would have been more impressive from an absolute temps point of view. If late June 2021 had happened a month later, Salem undoubtedly hits 122. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This idea that July hasn't torched so far is laughable. I think it really depends on where you are. While it has been pretty consistently warmer than normal, it has yet to break the 80°F mark here this month. I would call July warm but not torchy. But those in Salem or Eugene would disagree (and they would have good reason to). 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I think it really depends on where you are. While it has been pretty consistently warmer than normal, it has yet to break the 80°F mark here this month. I would call July warm but not torchy. But those in Salem or Eugene would disagree (and they would have good reason to). And everyone east of the Cascades. Not sure why those regions don't count. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Marine layer clouds are going to be pretty persistent in the central Sound on Thursday... the ECMWF has been showing this consistently on every run. I am sure this will lead to excitement from someone in King County that the models have no clue what is happening and the inversion is back to stay. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: And everyone east of the Cascades. Not sure why those regions don't count. Obviously, the Northwest is all areas north of Pierce County and west of the Cascade crest. /sarc 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 12Z is not as deep with the trough on Friday compared to its 00Z run... but still manages to bring some rain. Unfortunately does not look like much for the I-5 corridor or for my area. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Marine layer clouds are going to be pretty persistent in the central Sound on Thursday... the ECMWF has been showing this consistently on every run. I am sure this will lead to excitement from someone in King County that the models have no clue what is happening and the inversion is back to stay. I am certain that the same source will soon be posting signs of how we’re on tap for another 1950-style winter. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Thank GOD. The trough is weakening on the Euro. I was pissing my pants every hour on the hour for a minute there worrying it might actually rain. #stolensummer 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: And everyone east of the Cascades. Not sure why those regions don't count. It's not that they don't count, but let's be real. The vast majority of the discussion on here has always been about the westside, because that's where most weenies are. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Thank GOD. The trough is weakening on the Euro. I was pissing my pants every hour on the hour for a minute there worrying it might actually rain. Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5. The 12Z ECMWF is weaker than its 00Z run. Trend is not favorable. The 12Z GFS was also weaker than its 00Z run. Thursday and Friday are fairly cool with maybe a little rain on Friday... then its sunny again by Saturday. And it shows full sunshine and temps around 80 even in Seattle by Sunday. It is what it is. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted July 12, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 sorry im bored 1 1 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Side note... I am also focused on the chance for rain on Friday and posted maps from both the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF runs. Don't like what I see on the 12Z runs... some meaningful rain would be so nice right now. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Safe to say the CONUS has been stuck in the same general pattern for awhile. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5. Despite all this hype about a significant pattern change to colder weather... it looks like we will probably end up out on Lake Sammamish on the boat on Sunday in 80-degree sunshine. Brrrrr. When will summer ever start this year? 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 PNW troughing force field in full effect on the 12z Euro through day 10. Wont be too long before we’ve burned through all of our averagish weather points and are due for another regional heat event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Cold next week on the 12Z ECMWF... sunny and around 80 in Seattle from Sunday onward. Eventually we will get some actual summer weather around here. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 My phone says summer is ending soon here... look at Friday! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My phone says summer is ending soon here... look at Friday! Pretty rough looking forecast, buddy. I hope you manage to survive that epic trough. I imagine warnings will be posted shortly. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Cold next week on the 12Z ECMWF... sunny and around 80 in Seattle from Sunday onward. Eventually we will get some actual summer weather around here. Brrrr 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 31 minutes ago, Jesse said: Wont be too long before we’ve burned through all of our averagish weather points and are due for another regional heat event. Per Andrew, the heat has continued unabated this month. Reports that are not in full agreement. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 12, 2021 Report Share Posted July 12, 2021 Up to 70…one degree ahead of yesterday at this time. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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