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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Up to 70…one degree ahead of yesterday at this time. 

SEA is running 4 degrees ahead of yesterday.     High ended up being 81 yesterday. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per Andrew, the heat has continued unabated this month. 

Reports that are not in full agreement.

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is running 4 degrees ahead of yesterday.     High ended up being 81 yesterday. 

80 seems like a good bet here today…79 for the max here the last 3 days in a row. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We are absolutely blowing away July 2009 month to date. 

SLE running exactly even with yesterday, a day they ended up hitting 91. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guess I better get to the lake house before Friday’s massive rain event and get the boat covered…And possibly winterized due to the massive negative temp anomalies that are about to descend on us! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

46FC787F-F0FE-4214-8875-E37CC00AC51C.jpeg

So that’s what created the massive heatwave a few weeks ago…Friction can be a real *****. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

Yes.

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

Yeah... some people are acting like any troughing at all negates the warm summer narrative.  Apparently troughing is never possible in a warm summer. 

This upcoming troughing event looks pretty pathetic right now.   It literally gets stopped and pushed back as it tries to enter the PNW in true 4CH fashion.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yes.

Same story here. Major cool period in the second week at my place. There hasn't been a normal high in like a year.

lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Grandview Fire in Central Oregon has now grown to 4,000 acres. No word on containment, but I know they are throwing a lot of resources at it. 

Good news the fire down by LaPine was contained at 54 acres. 

Jack Fire's growth has slowed considerably over the past few days, it is 10% contained and just under 11,000 acres. It has mostly moved into the rugged terrain outside the North Umpqua canyon. 

Bootleg Fire checks in at 153,535 acres. 

I was expecting a much higher number than that for bootleg. I suppose we can work with a stunted growth at least.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not even remotely true. The only weather that matters is where I’m at.

Mr. Mass agrees, he just doesn't say it. 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I wonder how February 1989 would have turned out if you took away February 1989? 

When you can't figure out a way to downplay it, just move on to pretending it doesn't count. Then cherry pick the coldest station in the region, come up with arbitrary thresholds for days above a certain temperature (that's still on pace to match the hottest summers on record), and make absolutely ******* sure to never mention anything happening south of Olympia.

69dd4f6bea4966df9c8d167c03c8c909b3-13-wo

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4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I wonder how February 1989 would have turned out if you took away February 1989? 

What does that even mean, if that occurred in Jan or Dec? Or not at all? 🤣

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It has. He is assuming we see some average weather later next week which we may. As I mentioned earlier, July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. Something we have not seen yet this month. 

SLE has certainly been warmer than most this month.

You should see some average or below weather this week.

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34 minutes ago, James Jones said:

When you can't figure out a way to downplay it, just move on to pretending it doesn't count. Then cherry pick the coldest station in the region, come up with arbitrary thresholds for days above a certain temperature (that's still on pace to match the hottest summers on record), and make absolutely ******* sure to never mention anything happening south of Olympia.

1. How is using OLM, a station I have always used, cherry-picking? Still waiting for an explanation on that.

2. 85+ and 90+ days are standard thresholds we have used for years on here. Try again.

3. I mentioned a bunch of stations south of OLM when comparing June 2021 to June 2015 just the other day. Guess you missed it.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE has certainly been warmer than most this month.

You should see some average or below weather this week.

So has most of the Willamette Valley, and Umpqua Basin, Rogue Valley, Gorge, Columbia Basin, Treasure Valley, High Desert, South Central Oregon, Palouse, Spokane Area, Central Washington, ETC.

Up to 84 at SLE, running a couple degrees ahead of yesterday now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So has most of the Willamette Valley, and Umpqua Basin, Rogue Valley, Gorge, Columbia Basin, Treasure Valley, High Desert, South Central Oregon, Palouse, Spokane Area, Central Washington, ETC.

Nice to see you're taking such an interest in the weather not near your location now. I'll expect plenty of winter time updates from you on the weather in Omak, Port Angeles, and La Grande.

 

A forum for the end of the world.

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lol I’m done with this argument over wether it’s been warm or not. The stats are there people can choose to believe them or not. No point in trying to convince anyone of anything in this situation. We will see where we are by late July…that’ll be a time where we can verify this cooler weather pattern coming up and see how much it affects the averages. My guess is not much but we will see!

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice to see you're taking such an interest in the weather not near your location now. I'll expect plenty of winter time updates from you on the weather in Omak, Port Angeles, and La Grande.

 

I always talk about weather from east of the Cascades in the winter. Generally because it is much more interesting than ours. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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86 on the hour at EUG. 102 at Ontario. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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94 at K-Falls. 

92 in Redmond. 

Getting pics from Central Oregon showing the Grandview Fire putting off a lot of smoke this afternoon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

1. How is using OLM, a station I have always used, cherry-picking? Still waiting for an explanation on that.

2. 85+ and 90+ days are standard thresholds we have used for years on here. Try again.

3. I mentioned a bunch of stations south of OLM when comparing June 2021 to June 2015 just the other day. Guess you missed it.

1. So because you always cherry pick one station when it's convenient (you've been quite a bit more focused on SEA in recent days) it doesn't count as cherry picking this time?

2. Yeah, and many stations in the region are far ahead of the pace of torch summers like 2009, 2018, and even 2015 using those thresholds. 

3. Yes, it was another example of cherry picking at its finest. 

Is it your goal to come off as the most disingenuous, goalpost shifting weasel humanly possible or something? I also love your tactic of smug, condescending "guess you missed this one contrarian, cherry picking post I made earlier". It's really endearing. 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

94 at K-Falls. 

92 in Redmond. 

Getting pics from Central Oregon showing the Grandview Fire putting off a lot of smoke this afternoon. 

Bootleg fire is ramping up based on satellite imagery. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, James Jones said:

1. So because you always cherry pick one station when it's convenient (you've to have been quite a bit more focused on SEA in recent days) it doesn't count as cherry picking this time?

2. Yeah, and many stations in the region are far ahead of the pace of torch summers like 2009, 2018, and even 2015 using those thresholds. 

3. Yes, it was another example of cherry picking at its finest. 

Is it your goal to come off as the most disingenuous, goalpost shifting weasel humanly possible or something? I also love your tactic of smug, condescending "guess you missed this one contrarian, cherry picking post I made earlier". It's really endearing. 

We have been flatironed again! 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nice to see you're taking such an interest in the weather not near your location now. I'll expect plenty of winter time updates from you on the weather in Omak, Port Angeles, and La Grande.

 

This is another example of why people get so annoyed with you, by completely misrepresenting other people. Andrew posts random observations from around the region more than pretty much anybody on the board.

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I always talk about weather from east of the Cascades in the winter. Generally because it is much more interesting than ours. 

Looking at my last 6 on the signature next winter is at least normal or above!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

94 at K-Falls. 

92 in Redmond. 

Getting pics from Central Oregon showing the Grandview Fire putting off a lot of smoke this afternoon. 

I'm going to be averaging 95 July 1-15. I'm sure it's never happened. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Appears to be a new smoke plume in the Oregon Cascades south of Detroit Lake this afternoon. Hopefully it’s in the middle Santiam Wilderness. Would be pretty neat if we could lose every acre of old growth in the western Cascades of Oregon to fire or drought by the end of this season. Got a nice head start last year.

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45 minutes ago, James Jones said:

This is another example of why people get so annoyed with you, by completely misrepresenting other people. Andrew posts random observations from around the region more than pretty much anybody on the board.

Of course. I wasn't serious.

Although he definitely posts more about OR than WA...or ID for that matter. Don't forget, he literally was the one who started a separate thread for OR back in the day. 😆 He also earned the Mr. My Location title.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course. I wasn't serious.

Although he definitely posts more about OR than WA...or ID for that matter. Don't forget, he literally was the one who started a separate thread for OR back in the day. 😆 He also earned the Mr. My Location title.

Why don’t you just go away for awhile. There must be some Colorado weather forums.

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56 minutes ago, James Jones said:

1. So because you always cherry pick one station when it's convenient (you've to have been quite a bit more focused on SEA in recent days) it doesn't count as cherry picking this time?

2. Yeah, and many stations in the region are far ahead of the pace of torch summers like 2009, 2018, and even 2015 using those thresholds. 

3. Yes, it was another example of cherry picking at its finest. 

Is it your goal to come off as the most disingenuous, goalpost shifting weasel humanly possible or something? I also love your tactic of smug, condescending "guess you missed this one contrarian, cherry picking post I made earlier". It's really endearing. 

1. No, I really haven't been more focused on SEA. You'll find more posts about OLM. Plenty of other people have stations they pick "randomly" to illustrate something, it's silly to act like it's just me. Justin "randomly" picked SLE earlier.

2. Depends on where you're looking. And keeping in mind that those summers racked up a ton of hot days the rest of July, while there's nothing indicating the return of widespread heat yet this month.

I honestly don't care that much how I come off to you, or what names you call me. My goal is not to be endearing to someone who doesn't even know me. And I just don't take a lot of this as seriously as you apparently do.

Maybe you should care less about some of this stuff? 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... make your own forecast.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626091200-1626091200-1627387200-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1626091200-1626091200-1627387200-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6091200.png


So you’re telling me forecasting is hard??! 😱

I’ll just let things play itself out rather than getting into a seemingly endless debate with the troughing/ridging. Obviously both Jim and Phil wants troughs for different reasons. Jim want the trough and continued troughing because he’s not a fan of ridges. Phil wants troughing to happen because he’s been promoting it for the region for quite sometime and took an L against you for June/early July. Both of these people don’t like to admit when they’re wrong.  
 

We will see where the rest of the month takes us. 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Summer is over, colder weather on the way.
Anything about heat, dryness, or fires, is pointless because its just a big cycle and will be moot with the ice age.
Something something pedantic about OLM temps.

Nothing will matter especially after Yellowstone goes boom.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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