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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, sand dune said:

As of July 12th, Spokane has recorded 22 90+ days since June 1st, and Spokane Valley has recorded 26 90+ days since June 1st. 30-40 90+ is highly probable. Spokane averages 19 per summer season. I don't know Spokane Valley's average.

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.     I would guess the departure from normal in my area has been about the same as PDX.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, sand dune said:

I was looking at September 2015. The average high was a little bit below average. Things go in cycles. With a la niña developing, I feel pretty confident about a wetter than average October-December period. The ship will get righted eventually.

One would think. We really need a few wetter than average seasons to really right the ship. The late 80s early 90s were a long term drought in the PNW and were followed by a very wet period in the mid-late 90s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.     I would guess the departure from normal in my area has been about the same as PDX.

PDX is running a +3.6 departure on the month. So pretty similar to WFO SEA. Most of the valley is in the +5-6F range at this point. Very very hot days (88.3 average at SLE month to date.), but night time lows have been closer to average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX is running a +3.6 departure on the month. So pretty similar to WFO SEA. Most of the valley is in the +5-6F range at this point. Very very hot days (88.3 average at SLE month to date.), but night time lows have been closer to average. 

Same here... warm, sunny days and average nights.  

And endlessly sunny.    Which is not really normal even for summer here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One would think. We really need a few wetter than average seasons to really right the ship. The late 80s early 90s were a long term drought in the PNW and were followed by a very wet period in the mid-late 90s. 

The Spokane firestorm was in October 1991. What a scary event! The whole thing was preceded by a super dry period between July and October. There were fires burning all around the Spokane area fueled by 60 mph winds.

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The fact that SEA has been running unusually cold even compared to the rest of the Seattle area is certainly helping to fuel the discussion that its been so much colder up here.   But it has not been anywhere close to normal in terms of temps or rainfall out here in the foothills for the last month... much warmer and drier than normal.

And even within the immediate Seattle area... SEA is +1.2 on the month and WFO SEA is at +3.9.   So its sort of a false narrative to say its been so much different up here.    

Per this map, it's definitely fair to say the Puget Sound region has been cooler anomaly-wise than the Willamette Valley. OLM is at +2.4 on the month, and HQM is at +1.5.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.463e8d04dc9d291f7fbb9a917d894fbe.png

 

SLE is running the warmest anomaly of anywhere on the westside, well above Portland and Eugene, which is also reflected on the map.

It's been a month dominated by weak onshore flow, so it makes sense that the coast and areas closer to the sound have been quite a bit cooler than your area (which is often warmer in the summer anyway).

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per this map, it's definitely fair to say the Puget Sound region has been cooler anomaly-wise than the Willamette Valley.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.463e8d04dc9d291f7fbb9a917d894fbe.png

 

SLE is running the warmest anomaly of anywhere on the westside, well above Portland and Eugene, which is also reflected on the map.

It's been a month dominated by weak onshore flow, so it makes sense that the coast and areas closer to the sound have been cooler than your area (which is often warmer in the summer anyway).

Looks like I was right about my area being about the same as PDX in terms of temp anomalies.   Maybe even a little more anomalously warm up here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like I was right about my area being about the same as PDX in terms of temp anomalies.   Maybe even a little more anomalously warm up here.  

Looks pretty accurate for my location too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX is running a +3.6 departure on the month. So pretty similar to WFO SEA. Most of the valley is in the +5-6F range at this point. Very very hot days (88.3 average at SLE month to date.), but night time lows have been closer to average. 

Today will be the 30th consecutive afternoon with an above average high temperature here.  July is running +6.1F so far. 

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Today will be the 30th consecutive afternoon with an above average high temperature here.  July is running +6.1F so far. 

We’ve had 2 negative departures over the last 30 days…only -1 and -3 though. Everything else has been average to above. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Today will be the 30th consecutive afternoon with an above average high temperature here.  July is running +6.1F so far. 

Its not really a north/south gradient as Jim claims.    

Its been much warmer to the north, east, and south of SEA.    The only area that has been somewhat closer to normal is along the WA coast and in a narrow path up to SEA.    But even OLM is at +2.4 in that cooler area.   SEA is just on its own right now.   But that is good enough for Jim to call it colder everywhere north of Salem.  🤨

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not really a north/south gradient as Jim claims.    

Its been much warmer to the north, east, and south of SEA.    The only area that has been somewhat closer to normal is along the WA coast and in a narrow path up to SEA.    But even OLM is at +2.4 in that cooler area.   SEA is just on its own right now.   But that is good enough for Jim to call it colder everywhere north of Salem.  🤨

It’s been pretty warm everywhere it’s not a even a debate. Sure it’s been a little better here but the story’s the same everywhere. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ENSO cooling back toward neutral...

 

nino34 (5).png

 
 
 
·
Jul 11
 
We're starting to see more instances of positive values in the southern oscillation index (SOI) frame work. This typically means the atmosphere is skewing towards La Nina in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin).
 
image.png.acc3fa5d0c27b8126a007db54e750000.png
 
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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not really a north/south gradient as Jim claims.    

Its been much warmer to the north, east, and south of SEA.    The only area that has been somewhat closer to normal is along the WA coast and in a narrow path up to SEA.    But even OLM is at +2.4 in that cooler area.   SEA is just on its own right now.   But that is good enough for Jim to call it colder everywhere north of Salem.  🤨

I think Abbotsford had their warmest June on record and are around +5.5 for July.  

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57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not really a north/south gradient as Jim claims.    

Its been much warmer to the north, east, and south of SEA.    The only area that has been somewhat closer to normal is along the WA coast and in a narrow path up to SEA.    But even OLM is at +2.4 in that cooler area.   SEA is just on its own right now.   But that is good enough for Jim to call it colder everywhere north of Salem.  🤨

SLE and EUG have been warmer than OLM, SEA, Seattle WFO and BLI. So as far as major stations go, I think it's fair to say it's been warmer overall further south.

A week from now, most western WA locations will probably be in the +.5 to +2.5 range. 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE and EUG have been warmer than OLM, SEA, Seattle WFO and BLI. So as far as major stations go, I think it's fair to say it's been warmer overall further south.

A week from now, most western WA locations will probably be in the +.5 to +2.5 range. 

As your map showed... its clearly been warmer to the east of SEA as well.   And to the north with stations in SW BC reporting larger warm departures.   And BLI is running much warmer too.    You also said SLE was running usually warm.   

Its been about the same across the region except for along the WA coast and in a narrow strip to SEA.   But even a few miles north of SEA... its almost +4 at WFO SEA.     Its a dream scenario for someone pimping cold to say its been so much colder in the Seattle area... but it really hasn't. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Today is the big 20! It hasn't been below 90 in ages!!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

67 at SEA at 1 p.m. and 82 here.

Its been warmer out here pretty much every day for the last month.   Sometimes much warmer.   

Doesn't take much to warm up at SEA while NB plateau sooner. Up to 77 at SEA. 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like NWS thinks the streak will end either Thursday or Friday.

Yup Thursday was my original thought. They'll be back though shortly. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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11 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Doesn't take much to warm up at SEA while NB plateau sooner. Up to 77 at SEA. 

78 at SEA at 4 p.m.

84 in North Bend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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EUG has hit 90. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like SLE may avoid it by a hair.

Baby steps.

86 sure is a popular high for PDX lately.

Still sitting at one 90 on the month for them, top end of 88 here. That could last at least another 5-7 days judging by the models. It’s the little things.

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32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like SLE may avoid it by a hair.

Baby steps.

 

tenor.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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If Medford just beat their record stretch of 90 degree days, that probably means I did the same thing. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

86 sure is a popular high for PDX lately.

Still sitting at one 90 on the month for them, top end of 88 here. That could last at least another 5-7 days judging by the models. It’s the little things.

Yeah, the last 90-less July here was 2012. Would be an interesting little statistical oddity to achieve given the weather pattern we've been in.

 

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