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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Guidance looks pretty darn solid out there for the next 2 weeks. Near average generally, maybe slightly below average on the westside if the marine layer overperforms.

Pretty much the only part of the country that won’t be roasting in the late July - early/mid August timeframe. P1-3 transit in early August is usually f***ing disgusting for most of the CONUS, but very nice in the PNW region.

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the last 90-less July here was 2012. Would be an interesting little statistical oddity to achieve given the weather pattern we've been in.

 

Looks like PDX even avoided 90 that year in July. August was warmer as they went straight to 102 on Aug 4th lol.

I spent that summer in Beaverton, could have sworn July had at least 1-2 90's. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Another one! 90F!!

A536B95C-A1CA-4A9C-9350-2A4F91AE4389.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Guidance looks pretty darn solid out there for the next 2 weeks. Near average generally, maybe slightly below average on the westside if the marine layer overperforms.

Pretty much the only part of the country that won’t be roasting in the late July - early/mid August timeframe. P1-3 transit in early August is usually f***ing disgusting for most of the CONUS, but very nice in the PNW region.

 

 We will be on a lake in northern Wisconsin during the first week of August... probably have highs in the low to mid 80s and maybe a couple thunderstorms.    Won't be "f***cking disgusting".  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Another one! 90F!!

A536B95C-A1CA-4A9C-9350-2A4F91AE4389.jpeg

Medford CWA going to the next Super Bowl if we're counting 90's.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like SLE may avoid it by a hair.

Baby steps.

They may have gotten it after 5pm. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the last 90-less July here was 2012. Would be an interesting little statistical oddity to achieve given the weather pattern we've been in.

 

I'm sure the last week of the month will leave no doubt. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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57 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Looks like PDX even avoided 90 that year in July. August was warmer as they went straight to 102 on Aug 4th lol.

I spent that summer in Beaverton, could have sworn July had at least 1-2 90's. 

That August 2012 reading was the first triple digit heat since July 2009 for Portland. But that summer was mostly pretty cool, wickedly so by recent standards.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That August 2012 reading was the first triple digit heat since July 2009 for Portland. But that summer was mostly pretty cool, wickedly so by recent standards.

And notice there wasn't one day between 89 or 102? I thought that was interesting.

Many hated June that year, but I can remember a lot of fair afternoons. Despite a few particularly heavy rains I'm not trying to deny or anything.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That August 2012 reading was the first triple digit heat since July 2009 for Portland. But that summer was mostly pretty cool, wickedly so by recent standards.

We had a long dry stretch well into fall. Had some big thunderstorms in the mountains in September which started a large wildfire near Mt. Adams. Once the faucet got turned on it rained through December, then we had dry inversiony January. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Reminder: As bad as things seem, they will always get worse!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had a long dry stretch well into fall. Had some big thunderstorms in the mountains in September which started a large wildfire near Mt. Adams. Once the faucet got turned on it rained through December, then we had dry inversiony January. 

Can we copy/paste the May 2013 ULL activity this August? We need gullywasher t'storms stat.

Downtown K-Falls was flooded two afternoons in a row 5/7-8.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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E6OdGO1VgAUaQHj.thumb.jpg.9ca49515992b67b71dd4b3d98bf6d641.jpg

It does look like the desert SW is getting some highly beneficial rain from an overperforming monsoon season. Hopefully in mid August-September as the jet re-strengthens we can get some of that advected up our way, perhaps in the form of wet thunderstorms. Such storms can save our region from a bad fire season (a la 2013, 2015, 2019)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

E6OdGO1VgAUaQHj.thumb.jpg.9ca49515992b67b71dd4b3d98bf6d641.jpg

It does look like the desert SW is getting some highly beneficial rain from an overperforming monsoon season. Hopefully in mid August-September as the jet re-strengthens we can get some of that advected up our way, perhaps in the form of wet thunderstorms. Such storms can save our region from a bad fire season (a la 2013, 2015, 2019)

The overperforming monsoon season to date down in the SW is one of the few pieces of good news on the weather front that I have managed to glean lately. It's an important one.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Guidance looks pretty darn solid out there for the next 2 weeks. Near average generally, maybe slightly below average on the westside if the marine layer overperforms.

Pretty much the only part of the country that won’t be roasting in the late July - early/mid August timeframe. P1-3 transit in early August is usually f***ing disgusting for most of the CONUS, but very nice in the PNW region.

 

Side note on the marine layer... a trough offshore is not usually a marine layer pattern.  A trough just inland would be much more favorable.   Models insist on the pattern next week being quite sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Campfires are banned right now 😡

Supposedly they are not on the coast where we are going next week. I was surprised by that. My wife is one of those people who will always have a campfire as long as they are allowed. I'm paranoid so I am the guy dumping gallons of water in the fire ring while everyone else waits in the car to go. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hey where is Jim?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note on the marine layer... a trough offshore is not usually a marine layer pattern.  A trough just inland would be much more favorable.   Models insist on the pattern next week being quite sunny.

Can be a good cool lows pattern with onshore flow, though.

A forum for the end of the world.

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Supposedly they are not on the coast where we are going next week. I was surprised by that. My wife is one of those people who will always have a campfire as long as they are allowed. I'm paranoid so I am the guy dumping gallons of water in the fire ring while everyone else waits in the car to go. 

They generally allow fires on Vancouver island within the “fog zone”. Which is within 1 mile of the west coast of the island 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

They generally allow fires on Vancouver island within the “fog zone”. Which is within 1 mile of the west coast of the island 

I could not believe they were still allowing campfires in late June in the eastern Sierra region of California. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hey where is Jim?!

Busy polishing up his “upcoming Jan 1950 & 1969” analog.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

GFS hinting that we might finally pay a bit for our mostly peaceful, normal summer as we close out July.

 

Which is good because it’s been a long wait for a lengthy stretch of 90F+ temps.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Does anybody ever predict a dud?🤔 Disclaimer: I'm not making a prediction. 

Yes. Me, for this coming winter. At least for this location.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Unrelated comment but in Cliff Mass's efforts to be this sort of trailblazing scientist who calls out the "mainstream" isn't he also becoming more of exactly what he warns against? A hyperpoliticized member of the scientific community who somehow hypocritically complains about the same in others?

Sorry, saw his post being linked on Mark's blog and it's consistently more of the same quasi-echo chamber stuff. Curious as to the thoughts of others though.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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39 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Unrelated comment but in Cliff Mass's efforts to be this sort of trailblazing scientist who calls out the "mainstream" isn't he also becoming more of exactly what he warns against? A hyperpoliticized member of the scientific community who somehow hypocritically complains about the same in others?

Sorry, saw his post being linked on Mark's blog and it's consistently more of the same quasi-echo chamber stuff. Curious as to the thoughts of others though.

He's becoming what he vehemently attacks. Don't point a finger at others, because you have three pointing back at you.

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