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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Today will be one minute and forty six seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 😍👌

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could not believe they were still allowing campfires in late June in the eastern Sierra region of California. 

The Tahoe basin banned all fires a while ago. Outside of the basin the national forest service lands are much more lenient. 

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6 hours ago, The Blob said:

I think since PDX broke its all time high, we need to break the all time lowest high this year.

For some perspective, Portland's lowest high on record through its climate history is 9 degrees. A number that hasn't even officially been breached as a low since 1989.

And Portland would need to see a high temp of 0 to shatter its record by as much as it just shattered the record high.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

For some perspective, Portland's lowest high on record through its climate history is 9 degrees. A number that hasn't even officially been breached as a low since 1989.

And Portland would need to see a high temp of 0 to shatter its record by as much as it just shattered the record high.

That Stat is actually pretty incredible. I think the lowest high temp that I know of for South lake Tahoe is around 14F back in Feb 89 when we tied our record low of -29F. Pretty neat that Portlands low max is colder than us. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For some perspective, Portland's lowest high on record through its climate history is 9 degrees. A number that hasn't even officially been breached as a low since 1989.

And Portland would need to see a high temp of 0 to shatter its record by as much as it just shattered the record high.

Then let's do it,  Day After Tomorrow style 😎

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That Stat is actually pretty incredible. I think the lowest high temp that I know of for South lake Tahoe is around 14F back in Feb 89 when we tied our record low of -29F. Pretty neat that Portlands low max is colder than us. 

Yes, historically the strongest CAA can be a little colder in the PNW lowlands than the Sierra Nevada. Benefit of having closer access to the arctic air. Places in Whatcom County near the border actually have seen highs of 0 before, in January 1911 and again in January 1950. 

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A bone dry July is looking increasingly likely through basically the entire region. I did manage 0.01" here on the 7th. EUG is actually the only official station in the I-5 corridor that did also. Some scattered places in the North Sound could get there on Friday still, but it looks totally meager and back to nothing after that.

Not that July usually offers much in the way of precip, but for PDX another dry month would mean 6 in a row and 9 out of the last 10 months that are technically drier than average. Big time drought continuing to flex its muscles.

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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, historically the strongest CAA can be a little colder in the PNW lowlands than the Sierra Nevada. Benefit of having closer access to the arctic air. Places in Whatcom County near the border actually have seen highs of 0 before, in January 1911 and again in January 1950. 

Jan 1911 we had 229" of snow for the month and Jan 1950 we had 117"

So anytime you guys get record arctic air we get hammered with the jet stream. 

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38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, historically the strongest CAA can be a little colder in the PNW lowlands than the Sierra Nevada. Benefit of having closer access to the arctic air. Places in Whatcom County near the border actually have seen highs of 0 before, in January 1911 and again in January 1950. 

Also, lower sun angles and less daytime heating further north.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

For some perspective, Portland's lowest high on record through its climate history is 9 degrees. A number that hasn't even officially been breached as a low since 1989.

And Portland would need to see a high temp of 0 to shatter its record by as much as it just shattered the record high.

At the same time, Portland had approached within a couple degrees or hit the old record of 107 quite a few times over its history. The high of 9 for Portland is definitely more of an outlier in its record.

So regardless of changing climate, I think breaking that by 9 degrees would be easily more impressive.

A forum for the end of the world.

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54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A bone dry July is looking increasingly likely through basically the entire region. I did manage 0.01" here on the 7th. EUG is actually the only official station in the I-5 corridor that did also. Some scattered places in the North Sound could get there on Friday still, but it looks totally meager and back to nothing after that.

Not that July usually offers much in the way of precip, but for PDX another dry month would mean 6 in a row and 9 out of the last 10 months that are technically drier than average. Big time drought continuing to flex its muscles.

Been a brutal year for the vast majority of the West. Of course, Tim will be quick to point out that the mountains near him are near normal to even slightly above...pretty much the only place west of the Rockies.

Last12mPNormWRCC.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At the same time, Portland had approached within a couple degrees or hit the old record of 107 quite a few times over its history. The high of 9 for Portland is definitely more of an outlier in its record.

So regardless of changing climate, I think breaking that by 9 degrees would actually be easily more impressive.

True,  although I would wager that highs within a few degrees of that were relatively common as recently as the mid 19th century in the Portland area, much as a high of 116 would have been unfathomable. Just a product of our warming climate.

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41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Been a brutal year for the vast majority of the West. Of course, Tim will be quick to point out that the mountains near him are near normal to even slightly above...pretty much the only place west of the Rockies.

Last12mPNormWRCC.png

The reality is that this area (and most of western WA) is pretty close to normal precip for the year... which is going to help us during this dry warm season compared to areas to the south and east.    SEA is just -0.42 on the year.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Marine layer is deepening... it just moved in here.   That means a much slower burn off today and much cooler high temps and likely below model guidance.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cats next door got loose. Enjoying what little grass they can before it all burns.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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94/50 yesterday at KLMT. I think we're done with the hottest part of summer.

More 90's aren't out of the question still.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 hours ago, Jesse said:

The overperforming monsoon season to date down in the SW is one of the few pieces of good news on the weather front that I have managed to glean lately. It's an important one.

Remember when ULL's off the coast were dime a dozen? Now everything has to line up just to get one. 

I wonder if setups like early May 2013 are even possible anymore.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Remember when ULL's off the coast were dime a dozen? Now everything has to line up just to get one. 

I wonder if setups like early May 2013 are even possible anymore.

We will have a large ULL off the coast for several days coming up... but the models show it being a sunny pattern for western WA and OR.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6652800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

At the same time, Portland had approached within a couple degrees or hit the old record of 107 quite a few times over its history. The high of 9 for Portland is definitely more of an outlier in its record.

So regardless of changing climate, I think breaking that by 9 degrees would be easily more impressive.

If PDX scores a high of 0 or lower this winter, I will be impressed. Time will tell!!!

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will have a large ULL off the coast for several days coming up... but the models show it being a sunny pattern for western WA and OR.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6652800.png

 

Main problem is and continues to be the lack of digging. Even having that centered a few hundred miles further south would probably yield some diffluence and moisture advection into the region. The perma-high pressure bubble surrounding CA in every direction is doing a good job of thwarting things left and right.

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40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Main problem is and continues to be the lack of digging. Even having that centered a few hundred miles further south would probably yield some diffluence and moisture advection into the region. The perma-high pressure bubble surrounding CA in every direction is doing a good job of thwarting things left and right.

And I was specifically pointing to the ULL's that provide week+ long environments for t'storms, the wetting kinds.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer is deepening... it just moved in here.   That means a much slower burn off today and much cooler high temps and likely below model guidance.

That’s good to hear.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Main problem is and continues to be the lack of digging. Even having that centered a few hundred miles further south would probably yield some diffluence and moisture advection into the region. The perma-high pressure bubble surrounding CA in every direction is doing a good job of thwarting things left and right.

That low is a disaster. I can see little impulses leading to convection in interior areas. The whole thing looks like a dry lightning pattern for Eastern Washington. Exactly what we don't need. It would be better if it just moved inland.

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Driest 6 month period on record in parts of the BC interior.  Just 1.53” at Kelowna. Less than half the previous record. 

Let's hope the highly abnormal regime we have been in leads to something great down the road.  Usually the best stuff happens when things are out of whack like this.  The obvious flip side is some less than desirable things happen as well.  The 1930s are a prime example.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's kind of interesting how the weather change is happening right at the mid point of meteorological summer.  Might be two very different halves.  An interesting aside right now is the fact SEA has a somewhat realistic shot at not hitting 85 this month.  I know there is still along way to go, but if it doesn't it will be the first time since 2012 that has happened in July.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Let's hope the highly abnormal regime we have been in leads to something great down the road.  Usually the best stuff happens when things are out of whack like this.  The obvious flip side is some less than desirable things happen as well.  The 1930s are a prime example.

There are parallels between the 1920s-1930s and now. 1985 had a scorching July. 2003 was a hot summer. The fall and winter had dynamic events etc.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's kind of interesting how the weather change is happening right at the mid point of meteorological summer.  Might be two very different halves.  An interesting aside right now is the fact SEA has a somewhat realistic shot at not hitting 85 this month.  I know there is still along way to go, but if it doesn't it will be the first time since 2012 that has happened in July.

It's still going to be hot over here. I welcome continental air masses. Maritime air rarely leads to something decent. Let's continue the blocking regime into winter. I like our chances then.

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Full sunshine here before noon. The last two weeks have actually been amazing for just being outside. Most days haven’t been too hot here and we have even had some marine layer mornings. That is of course ignoring our drought and warming climate issues. 

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