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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Full sunshine here before noon. The last two weeks have actually been amazing for just being outside. Most days haven’t been too hot here and we have even had some marine layer mornings. That is of course ignoring our drought and warming climate issues. 

Your puppy avatar looks positively ecstatic.🐶

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12Z ECMWF keeps the trough just offshore all of next week before lifting it out to the north.

And it shows basically wall-to-wall sun from Saturday afternoon onward... very little in the way of marine layer clouds all week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Your puppy avatar looks positively ecstatic.🐶

This forum needs frogs again. Maybe we'll get some rain again if I switch my profile gif back. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF keeps the trough just offshore all of next week before lifting it out to the north.

And it shows basically wall-to-wall sun from Saturday afternoon onward... very little in the way of marine layer clouds all week.  

At least we should hopefully have a break from the 90s if the run verifies.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, sand dune said:

The Warner Bros cartoon frog could be helpful.🐸

Had this one years ago 🤪

tenor (14).gif

  • lol 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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But my lightning one now is too good, and actually from one of my youtube videos. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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PurpleAir reading 180 AQI in north K-Falls and 200 over in Altamont.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Pretty nice ECMWF.  Two solid cool shots during the period and it ends really nice.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

The Earth's climate is definitely not warming... whew!    Good find.   You solved the mystery! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

There was a colossal stretch of 90's like this one in 1906 in my area. But good luck telling the news it was ever this hot 100 years ago. 😜

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Sun popped out here at 10am. Tim’s deep marine intrusion might be in jeopardy. 

It’s been sunny since dawn up this way. Sea breeze is quite vigorous, however, gusting to 25 mph and above at times.

In other words, par for the course. Stronger sea breezes with fewer clouds seems to have been a pattern for us this summer.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Both SEA and BFI are 63F at 1pm. But at this time yesterday it was a lot different. BFI is running -7F cooler today while SEA is -3F at this time.

Interestingly, despite running behind SEA reached a high of 81 yesterday while BFI at 82. 
 

Probably going to be the same today. 

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48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

SCORE!!!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

About twice as many heat records are now being set as are cold records.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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86 at 1pm. Starting to feel like global cooling now. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

About twice as many heat records are now being set as are cold records.

At higher elevations it still seems to be an evened out mixture of hot/cold records. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

About twice as many heat records are now being set as are cold records.

Exactly. Pretty sure they had a record breaking heatwave too just last month. Along with other places east of the Rockies if I’m not mistaken. Don’t usually pay as much attention to that region though. 

4984608A-B397-4C39-961E-A5A8A4F2B54F.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was a colossal stretch of 90's like this one in 1906 in my area. But good luck telling the news it was ever this hot 100 years ago. 😜

Yeah....July 1906 was a hot one in the NW.  Awesome January the next winter as well.

The dishonesty surrounding climate change / global warming is insane.  Climate change is ubiquitous in the history of the Earth and sometimes that does involve warming.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

SCORE!!!

You can look at the data yourself.  Chicago was one of the cities where they were talking about the worst heatwaves being decades ago.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....July 1906 was a hot one in the NW.  Awesome January the next winter as well.

The dishonesty surrounding climate change / global warming is insane.  Climate change is ubiquitous in the history of the Earth and sometimes that does involve warming.

So now the climate is warming?

You just said you found hard evidence that its not warming because all the heat records from the East are from long ago.

Could be entirely natural... or natural and being aided by human activity... but it is warming.    And we are getting old and probably won't be around when it reverses.  

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

About twice as many heat records are now being set as are cold records.

I think a lot of urban locations with a long period of record are really suffering from UHI.  That all gets counted into being global warming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....July 1906 was a hot one in the NW.  Awesome January the next winter as well.

The dishonesty surrounding climate change / global warming is insane.  Climate change is ubiquitous in the history of the Earth and sometimes that does involve warming.

They are called useful idiots or lemmings.  Take your pick.  They are told what to say by somebody who is told by somebody,etc.  If they don't do that they are 'let go' as in moving in a different direction.  

 

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OMG!  The GFS surface projection actually don't have SEA hitting 90 any time in the next 15 days.  Watching those predictions this summer has been frustrating to say the least.  According to that we should have had no sub 80 days in SEA in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

OMG!  The GFS surface projection actually don't have SEA hitting 90 any time in the next 15 days.  Watching those predictions this summer has been frustrating to say the least.  According to that we should have had no sub 80 days in SEA in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

Gfs definitely needs some work.  Shame that our American model is really sh*t for the most part compared to the euro. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

OMG!  The GFS surface projection actually don't have SEA hitting 90 any time in the next 15 days.  Watching those predictions this summer has been frustrating to say the least.  According to that we should have had no sub 80 days in SEA in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

GFS should be more accurate for the next 10 days at least with very little marine inversion.     Reality will probably going to be close to a blend of the EPS and GFS.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You can look at the data yourself.  Chicago was one of the cities where they were talking about the worst heatwaves being decades ago.

Research and scientific data have proven that the earth have been warming since 1880. The years 2016 and 2020 have both tied the record for warmest record on earth since 1880. Including 19 of the warmest years have occurred since 2000.

Sure, you can claim cylindrical, but the trend is clear and precise with a warming planet.   

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20 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Rain streak and 70+ streak in jeopardy for Friday. Friday is going to feel downright chilly!

 

Close call for the rain streak at SEA!  

ECMWF shows measurable rain just to the north of SEA on Friday.   Pretty easy to imagine at .01 at SEA.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-6523200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Close call for the rain streak at SEA!  

ECMWF shows measurable rain just to the north of SEA on Friday.   Pretty easy to imagine at .01 at SEA.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-6523200.png

So I found out T doesn’t count as official tally. Only 0.01” and above. 

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I was doing some research on heatwaves east of the Rockies and was really surprised by what I found.  Most of their worst heatwaves were long ago.  A lot in the 1950s and many before that as well.  Just plays into to my theory that a lot of this stuff is cyclical.  If we had runaway global warming everywhere would be getting hotter not just some regions.  I'm betting the global warming crowd doesn't talk a lot about this.

I think the takeaway is that you can't draw a whole lot conclusively about global climate based on what is happening regionally. The global temperature is one factor - but can certainly be overwhelmed by other, stronger influences in shorter time scales.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I remember just a few days ago it was showing a bunch of 82-85 highs in the mid range.

Yeah... the 500mb pattern shown is a little more troughy now.    It's a spectacular pattern overall... lots of sun and pleasant temps after Friday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

OMG!  The GFS surface projection actually don't have SEA hitting 90 any time in the next 15 days.  Watching those predictions this summer has been frustrating to say the least.  According to that we should have had no sub 80 days in SEA in the past 3 or 4 weeks.

All guidance has been too warm in Seattle of late. Those clown range meteograms projecting low/mid 80s in the LR probably aren’t going to verify.

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