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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Nice convective complex w/ low level onshore flow in the LR. No fire starts with that low level humidity. Plsssssss

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SEA down to 57 before midnight in July is pretty impressive.  Going to be nice to have some widespread below normal temps the next few days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Canadian is a thing of beauty.

No doubt this is looking like the second half of this summer could go in a very interesting direction.  As I mentioned earlier 1950s analogs are popping up.  People can look for themselves if they don't believe it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Did southern OR bake in the 1950's? There's not many summer records from that decade.

 

They probably didn't.  This might end up being a split summer.  The CPC analogs are for the pattern that's upcoming.  I've seen 1953, 1954, 1955, and 1956.  All summers that eventually had epic torches in the East.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GEM does get quite pretty alright.  A lot of hinting going on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They probably didn't.  This might end up being a split summer.  The CPC analogs are for the pattern that's upcoming.  I've seen 1953, 1954, 1955, and 1956.  All summers that eventually had epic torches in the East.

Except we always find a way to torch. Especially during the midsummer - early autumn timeframe. That by itself isn’t indicative of a 1950s regime.

But yes, end of July to mid August looks f***ing hideous east of the Rockies if MJO/eQBO climo holds sway.

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Number one analog for the GFS at day 11 tonight is from July 1955.  This COULD get interesting.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One of the stations near Port Angeles shows 47 degrees now.  Hard to believe some places in this very same state were well over 100 today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The EPS has the ridge axis east of the Rockies as we get into week 2 now.  The plot thickens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 55 at SEA now.  That is noteworthy for them this early in the evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Cloudy and 55 this morning. Low clouds started to filter in around 11pm last night so a pretty thick marine layer. Hopefully we will manage to score our first below average days in about a month today and tomorrow.

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Today will be one minute and fifty seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 😁✌️

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 55 at SEA now.  That is noteworthy for them this early in the evening.

Guess it didn’t really mean much considering it stuck there most of the night? 😂 

Currently a cool 56F at home and still 55F at SEA. 

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9 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Guess it didn’t really mean much considering it stuck there most of the night? 😂 

Currently a cool 56F at home and still 55F at SEA. 

Yea that was a swing and a miss on his part. Low of 55 this morning too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Today will likely end up pretty cool in the Seattle area... the ECMWF says the low clouds stick around in King County through the afternoon in a weak c-zone signature. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6390000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Today will likely end up pretty cool in the Seattle area... the ECMWF says the low clouds stick around in King County through the afternoon in a weak c-zone signature. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6390000.png

Noticed this so I’m gonna guess a couple degrees cooler. Yesterday ended up being a below average day and a high of only 74. I’m guessing 71-72F today. 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Already looks likely to bust warm on several upcoming days.

When?   Tomorrow looks about right and Saturday onward will be sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At this point, today, tomorrow and Sunday all look like likely candidates.

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

FWIW, tomorrow could bust for the Euro too.

NWS calls for a high of only 68 tomorrow for SEA. Their forecast looks on point for today. 
 

 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

FWIW, tomorrow could bust for the Euro too.

NWS calls for a high of only 68 tomorrow. Their forecast looks on point for today. 
 

 

Tomorrow is a wild card... the mixing will break the inversion but also bring clouds and even some showers so it comes down to timing on sun breaks.     Low 70s is certainly possible but if there are no sun breaks then upper 60s is probably the warmest we can muster.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59F and mostly cloudy. Looks like we got down to 54F. Very pleasant.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with today due to the low level inversion. 

The trough provides mixing tomorrow and then its basically sunny over the weekend... so I would not count on an inversion then.

 

You don't have to have an inversion for it to be below 80 and sunny.

And tomorrow could easily stay in the upper 60s if it is mostly cloudy. That's what the NWS is forecasting for Seattle.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You don't have to have an inversion for it to be below 80 and sunny.

And tomorrow could easily stay in the upper 60s if it is mostly cloudy. That's what the NWS is forecasting for Seattle.

I said the same thing about tomorrow.

But I do think the weekend temps will be close.    The ECMWF shows no low clouds anywhere on Sunday and 850mb temps a little warmer than normal.   That should mean surface temps in Seattle can reach their full potential which is probably around 80. 

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6652800 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Went to Pamelia Lake, one of the few, as of now, unburned places in the Mt. Jefferson Wilderness. Nice easy hike. My 4 year old made it up and back easily. 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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