Front Ranger Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I said the same thing about tomorrow. But I do think the weekend temps will be close. The ECMWF shows no low clouds anywhere on Sunday and 850mb temps a little warmer than normal. That should mean surface temps in Seattle can reach their full potential which is probably around 80. 2 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 I'm enjoying this July gloom. It reminds me of the June gloom we had in the 90s while growing up in California. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Troughing definitely looking a bit stronger next week on the GFS. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Getting some sun breaks through the clouds. Should be a pretty sunny afternoon down here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: Getting some sun breaks through the clouds. Should be a pretty sunny afternoon down here. Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. non-existent ridging 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, GobBluth said: non-existent ridging We've had a death ridge for 8 years now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. Want to wager on that? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, GobBluth said: non-existent ridging Pretty much. Only 3 days out of the next 12 are ridgy on the 12z GFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Frontloaded winter? 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Not sure what to tell you... but I trust WB more. Here is Sunday per the ECMWF and GFS: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil said: Pretty much. Only 3 days out of the next 12 are ridgy on the 12z GFS. My area has been warmer than normal continuously for the last month. That does not happen with troughing. And we sure are playing up troughing which is likely to be centered offshore. There is a huge difference between that when its centered inland over the PNW. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. Just because it's not squarely over the Willamette Valley does not mean there is no trough. There's obviously one hanging out pretty close for the foreseeable future. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 2nd half of the month could end up close to normal. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS is a combo of 1954 and 1955... with some 1964 mixed in. Any 1955 analog could turn into a pretty snowy winter here. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: The drizzle/mist from earlier was not enough to register in the rain gauge so we are on to day 29 of 0.00 readings. It will be interesting to see if we will get enough to break that streak tomorrow. Same with the North Bend station... its been wet this morning but did not register in the gauge. The last measurable in North Bend was exactly one month ago today which is the day that there was some thunderstorm activity with that big trough lifting out. There was a couple distant rumbles of thunder here that day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. It's been one month since I had an AVERAGE high. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Completely cleared out now about the same time as yesterday. Up to 70 and it should be a beautiful afternoon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Getting a few sunbreaks now in Salem. I sense a front, mid, and backloaded winter. But we'll have to wait to see what kind of load gets dumped. It might just be sh it! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 12Z ECMWF shows more energy diving down into the GOA later next week which lifts out the trough offshore without even producing any clouds around here. Its just sunny through this process and would likely lead to another ridge popping up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Nice to not see any major heat in the near term. That helps. A nice soaking rain before the end of August would help even more. Was pretty amazing to see how dry the forest was on our hike yesterday. 7 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows more energy diving down into the GOA later next week which lifts out the trough offshore without even producing any clouds around here. Its just sunny through this process and would likely lead to another ridge popping up. Strange pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: 0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year. Wild blueberries have had a good season, along with the wild strawberries. Dewberries are all over the place. Thimbleberries have just ripened up here and remain my favorite berry, though the deer are tough competition as they like to eat the whole plant to the ground. Found a nice pile of berry-forward bear scat in the yard, so everyone is enjoying the berries this time of year. That's good. I heard it destroyed about 1/4 of the blueberry crop in NW Oregon. Was talking to a friend about the impacts on Christmas Trees. The seedlings planted this spring had 75-100% mortality. He said it took out about 30% of the established trees, some are dead, others will need to be trimmed and will not be commercially viable for 2-3 more years. Judging by the local vineyards around Silverton, it appears to have had no impact on the the grapes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: 0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year. Crazy. I just commented to my wife last evening how small the huckleberries are this year. Honestly, they are about half to two thirds their normal size here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Acer said: Crazy. I just commented to my wife last evening how small the huckleberries are this year. Honestly, they are about half to two thirds their normal size here. Back when my dad grew berries on his farm, he would always say hot weather would always make the berries smaller, though often they would be more flavorful. How are the huckleberries are tasting? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 66 in North Bend and 62 here... coolest day in a long time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 1pm and not a cloud in the sky. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 12Z EPS... looks like retrogression in the long range. I have a feeling we might have another heat wave in late July or early August as well. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: 0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year. Wild blueberries have had a good season, along with the wild strawberries. Dewberries are all over the place. Thimbleberries have just ripened up here and remain my favorite berry, though the deer are tough competition as they like to eat the whole plant to the ground. Found a nice pile of berry-forward bear scat in the yard, so everyone is enjoying the berries this time of year. Good to hear about the berries! And 0.01” would officially count towards the precip tally. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 64 at 1pm. Running 1F warmer than yesterday at this time. Still cloud with and occasional sunbreak and filtered sunshine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 87 and Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said: 64 at 1pm. Running 1F warmer than yesterday at this time. Still cloud with and occasional sunbreak and filtered sunshine. The way the clouds are hanging tough in the central sound... SEA might have a sub-70 day today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The way the clouds are hanging tough in the central sound... SEA might have a sub-70 day today. This might actually happen because Wunderground is moving out the max daytime temps as we progress through the day. It was 72 earlier and now it’ll be 70. At least for my area. edit: it actually just moved again to a max of 69 now. Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 It is surprisingly clear at my place. Blue sky and you can see miles out. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 I would have gotten 8 t'storm days in the last 10 days if this was July 2015. None of them were dry, they swiftly cleared smoke out of the area when they happened. 0 this month. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 Brilliant clear blue skies all day here. But cooler with just low 70s so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I would have gotten 8 t'storm days in the last 10 days if this was July 2015. None of them were dry, they swiftly cleared smoke out of the area when they happened. 0 this month. T-storms have been hard to come by this summer. The next 10 days may be better for favored areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 15, 2021 Report Share Posted July 15, 2021 58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS... looks like retrogression in the long range. I have a feeling we might have another heat wave in late July or early August as well. Yeah I sense our little stretch of below-average weather will reverse back before the end of the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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