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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said the same thing about tomorrow.

But I do think the weekend temps will be close.    The ECMWF shows no low clouds anywhere on Sunday and 850mb temps a little warmer than normal.   That should mean surface temps in Seattle can reach their full potential which is probably around 80. 

🤔

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_5.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Getting some sun breaks through the clouds. Should be a pretty sunny afternoon down here.

Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

non-existent ridging

We've had a death ridge for 8 years now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today and tomorrow may be SLE's only shot at a sub 80 high this month. 

Want to wager on that?

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8 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

non-existent ridging

Pretty much.

Only 3 days out of the next 12 are ridgy on the 12z GFS.

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41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

🤔

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_5.png

Not sure what to tell you... but I trust WB more.   Here is Sunday per the ECMWF and GFS:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6652800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6652800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much.

Only 3 days out of the next 12 are ridgy on the 12z GFS.

My area has been warmer than normal continuously for the last month.   That does not happen with troughing.     And we sure are playing up troughing which is likely to be centered offshore.    There is a huge difference between that when its centered inland over the PNW.   

 

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30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thread is setting the record for comments about non-existent troughing. 

Just because it's not squarely over the Willamette Valley does not mean there is no trough. 

There's obviously one hanging out pretty close for the foreseeable future.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2nd half of the month could end up close to normal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS is a combo of 1954 and 1955... with some 1964 mixed in.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6307200.png

Any 1955 analog could turn into a pretty snowy winter here. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

The drizzle/mist from earlier was not enough to register in the rain gauge so we are on to day 29 of 0.00 readings.

It will be interesting to see if we will get enough to break that streak tomorrow.

Same with the North Bend station... its been wet this morning but did not register in the gauge.   

The last measurable in North Bend was exactly one month ago today which is the day that there was some thunderstorm activity with that big trough lifting out.    There was a couple distant rumbles of thunder here that day.  

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today is one month to the date since SLE had their last below average day. COULD do it today. 

It's been one month since I had an AVERAGE high. 🤣😱

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Getting a few sunbreaks now in Salem. 

I sense a front, mid, and backloaded winter. But we'll have to wait to see what kind of load gets dumped. It might just be sh it!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF shows more energy diving down into the GOA later next week which lifts out the trough offshore without even producing any clouds around here.   Its just sunny through this process and would likely lead to another ridge popping up.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1626350400-1626782400-1626998400-10.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-toa_brightness-1626350400-1626782400-1626998400-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice to not see any major heat in the near term. That helps. A nice soaking rain before the end of August would help even more. Was pretty amazing to see how dry the forest was on our hike yesterday. 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows more energy diving down into the GOA later next week which lifts out the trough offshore without even producing any clouds around here.   Its just sunny through this process and would likely lead to another ridge popping up.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1626350400-1626782400-1626998400-10.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-toa_brightness-1626350400-1626782400-1626998400-10.gif

Strange pattern

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. 

Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year. Wild blueberries have had a good season, along with the wild strawberries. Dewberries are all over the place. Thimbleberries have just ripened up here and remain my favorite berry, though the deer are tough competition as they like to eat the whole plant to the ground. Found a nice pile of berry-forward bear scat in the yard, so everyone is enjoying the berries this time of year. 

That's good. I heard it destroyed about 1/4 of the blueberry crop in NW Oregon. 

Was talking to a friend about the impacts on Christmas Trees. The seedlings planted this spring had 75-100% mortality. He said it took out about 30% of the established trees, some are dead, others will need to be trimmed and will not be commercially viable for 2-3 more years. 

Judging by the local vineyards around Silverton, it appears to have had no impact on the the grapes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. 

Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year.

Crazy.  I just commented to my wife last evening how small the huckleberries are this year.  Honestly, they are about half to two thirds their normal size here.

 

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

Crazy.  I just commented to my wife last evening how small the huckleberries are this year.  Honestly, they are about half to two thirds their normal size here.

 

Back when my dad grew berries on his farm, he would always say hot weather would always make the berries smaller, though often they would be more flavorful. How are the huckleberries are tasting? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1pm and not a cloud in the sky. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z EPS... looks like retrogression in the long range.    I have a feeling we might have another heat wave in late July or early August as well.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626350400-1626350400-1627646400-10.gif

Screenshot_20210715-125839_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.01” in the rain gauge today after a light drizzle all morning, still only 57°F. Beautiful cloudy morning. 

Happy to say I guessed incorrectly about the heatwaves effect on the local berries. While the salmonberries did stop production immediately, the huckleberries are numerous and the largest I’ve ever seen them. They’re honestly comically large this year. Wild blueberries have had a good season, along with the wild strawberries. Dewberries are all over the place. Thimbleberries have just ripened up here and remain my favorite berry, though the deer are tough competition as they like to eat the whole plant to the ground. Found a nice pile of berry-forward bear scat in the yard, so everyone is enjoying the berries this time of year. 

Good to hear about the berries! And 0.01” would officially count towards the precip tally.

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5 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

64 at 1pm. Running 1F warmer than yesterday at this time. Still cloud with and occasional sunbreak and filtered sunshine. 

The way the clouds are hanging tough in the central sound... SEA might have a sub-70 day today.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The way the clouds are hanging tough in the central sound... SEA might have a sub-70 day today.  

This might actually happen because Wunderground is moving out the max daytime temps as we progress through the day. It was 72 earlier and now it’ll be 70. At least for my area. 
 

edit: it actually just moved again to a max of 69 now. Nice. 

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It is surprisingly clear at my place. Blue sky and you can see miles out.

  • Sun 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I would have gotten 8 t'storm days in the last 10 days if this was July 2015. 

None of them were dry, they swiftly cleared smoke out of the area when they happened.

0 this month.

  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I would have gotten 8 t'storm days in the last 10 days if this was July 2015. 

None of them were dry, they swiftly cleared smoke out of the area when they happened.

0 this month.

T-storms have been hard to come by this summer. The next 10 days may be better for favored areas. 

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58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... looks like retrogression in the long range.    I have a feeling we might have another heat wave in late July or early August as well.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626350400-1626350400-1627646400-10.gif

Screenshot_20210715-125839_Chrome.jpg

Yeah I sense our little stretch of below-average weather will reverse back before the end of the month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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