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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are just talking about SEA ok. But if we are talking about 80% of the PNW you are just dead wrong. The Willamette Valley, Umpqua Basin, Rogue Basin, and everywhere east of the Cascades are torching to historic levels. Yesterday SLE had marine clouds until around 11am and still hit 81. Today was supposed to be the big marine push today and I was shocked to wake up to severe clear. They should easily top 80 again. Remember July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. After today it is mid-upper 80s the rest of the month. The sustained warmth has just been absolutely incredible. 

Did pull off a -2 departure yesterday at least. Even if we don't beat July 2015, it won't take much in August to beat that summer given where June ended up. 

Irrelevant. Everybody knows that the Pacific Northwest is all areas north of Pierce County and west of the Cascade crest.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Tim’s area is somehow the coolest and wettest (with respect to average) in the entire PNW region right now. Always seems to happen that way. :lol: 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are just talking about SEA ok. But if we are talking about 80% of the PNW you are just dead wrong. The Willamette Valley, Umpqua Basin, Rogue Basin, and everywhere east of the Cascades are torching to historic levels. Yesterday SLE had marine clouds until around 11am and still hit 81. Today was supposed to be the big marine push today and I was shocked to wake up to severe clear. They should easily top 80 again. Remember July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. After today it is mid-upper 80s the rest of the month. The sustained warmth has just been absolutely incredible. 

Did pull off a -2 departure yesterday at least. Even if we don't beat July 2015, it won't take much in August to beat that summer given where June ended up. 

Springfield was 84/54 yesterday and finished +0.8 on the day...it was cooler at the airport as they were socked in the marine clouds for longer.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will not be hot in Seattle. Already pretty much locked up a warm month everywhere else. 

Through the first half of the month SLE is only running -0.3F behind July 2015 and ahead of every other month in their 130 year period of record. 

No extreme heat this month, just extremely consistent warmth. 

If  you take the NWS forecast for the next 7 days verbatim they will be on pace for the 4th warmest July through the 22nd. 

Even an average second half will yield a very warm month for sw BC. 
 

the heat in the interior has been sustained and unreal.  Kamloops has an average high in July of 93.4F to date.  For comparison July 2015 had an average high of 87.8F for the month. 

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8 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My new office is right by the airport, had to go in for a few hours today and its amazing the difference in the winds there vs. my house.  I know its somewhat obvious given the terrain there vs. my house, but still, they are a little less than 5 miles apart as the crow flies.  That said, it did get pretty breezy here last night!

Looks like I pulled off a 72/55 here at the house, with the winds picking back up this evening.  In fact I went out to turn off the sprinkler and froze my a** off between the 64 degree temp and the wind.

I was at Whatcom Falls Park one afternoon last week and I was amazed by how calm and warm it was. For a city its size, Bellingham really does have the microclimates.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Holy cow! The monthly departures in the Inland NW are insane. +10F at Spokane, +11.2F at Omak. 

Further south things have been hot too. Pendleton and Redmond are both at +7 for the month, and we know about the record breaking 90+ streak going on at K-Falls. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Tim’s area is somehow the coolest and wettest (with respect to average) in the entire PNW region right now. Always seems to happen that way. :lol: 

My area has been warmer than normal and basically totally dry for the last month until yesterday.     

If you are talking about the entire year... this is true in terms of precip.    King County was excluded from the drought declaration because we have had normal precip for the year.    I don't think its been colder than other areas this year though.   We had an incredibly sunny and pleasant spring here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My area has been warmer than normal and basically totally dry for the last month until yesterday.     

If you are talking about the entire year... this is true in terms of precip.    King County was excluded from the drought declaration because we have had normal precip for the year.    I don't think its been colder than other areas this year though.   We had an incredibly sunny and pleasant spring here.  

Just going off WRCC data. 

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22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Irrelevant. Everybody knows that the Pacific Northwest is all areas north of Pierce County and west of the Cascade crest.

I’d be upset about all this torching but then I’m reminded that Portland, Eugene, Klamath falls, Spokane, Yakima, Wenatchee ect. are not important PNW stations. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just going off WRCC data. 

Its ironic... because all I have been saying for the last month is how warm and dry its been here.   There is nothing even remotely cool or wet about the last month out here in the Cascade foothills.   Also... every day has been warmer than Seattle which is unusual.   There are usually at least some days when Seattle is warmer.     Its been about as sunny as it can possibly be for this area.   The only exception has been yesterday and today.  

And yet you are acting like I am saying its been wet and cool.   🤨

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Celebrate rain and troughing in this land of constant ridging.

You guys have been getting some good rain recently right? We will be lucky if we end the day with 0.01” here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will not be hot in Seattle. Already pretty much locked up a warm month everywhere else. 

Through the first half of the month SLE is only running -0.3F behind July 2015 and ahead of every other month in their 130 year period of record. 

No extreme heat this month, just extremely consistent warmth. 

If  you take the NWS forecast for the next 7 days verbatim they will be on pace for the 4th warmest July through the 22nd. 

I haven't broken a record high since late June, but I am averaging an insane 94 or so degrees for a high first 15 days.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Good morning everyone! It’s cloudy and 56 here. 

Got down to mid-40's this morning! Sunny and 66.6. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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On some of the boat FB groups I am in people in the NE are very excited that they have had a nice few days for boating after a wet and cold start to summer…I have not paid any attention to the weather out that way but it seems like they are mad that they have had NW type weather. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

You guys have been getting some good rain recently right? 

It’s a reference to Tim’s old screen name.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a reference to Tim’s old screen name.

No I’m just asking if you guys have gotten a lot of rain recently is all. Haven’t been tracking the weather out east much but I believe it’s been wet there. Wish we could even get just a day with some nice rain totals. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

On some of the boat FB groups I am in people in the NE are very excited that they have had a nice few days for boating after a wet and cold start to summer…I have not paid any attention to the weather out that way but it seems like they are mad that they have had NW type weather. 

New England I assume? They get all the good weather..both in summer and winter.

Meanwhile, back home the heat index has been 100+ the majority of days this month. It was already 81 degrees at 730AM, and Chesapeake/Potomac waters are in the low/mid 80s. And the worst is yet to come. 🤮 

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12Z GFS is coming around to the EPS idea for later next week... and it shows a trough for Phil which won't be good enough for him of course.  😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7171200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think the rain comparisons in the plains and SW (to PNW) don't really work; their sources for rainfall are completely different than Seattle just getting a surface front in the fall, and it's usually without thunderstorms or severe weather.

Arizona being in monsoon season is another thing too. 

It's not like we literally swapped climates and Seattle moved to Phoenix. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

New England I assume? They get all the good weather..both in summer and winter.

Meanwhile, back home the heat index has been 100+ the majority of days this month. It was already 81 degrees at 730AM, and Chesapeake/Potomac waters are in the low/mid 80s. And the worst is yet to come. 🤮 

It was! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy cow! The monthly departures in the Inland NW are insane. +10F at Spokane, +11.2F at Omak. 

Further south things have been hot too. Pendleton and Redmond are both at +7 for the month, and we know about the record breaking 90+ streak going on at K-Falls. 

Spokane's average high through 7/15 is 93.2. Spokane Valley's average high through 7/15 is 96.1. 

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50 minutes ago, Phil said:

New England I assume? They get all the good weather..both in summer and winter.

Meanwhile, back home the heat index has been 100+ the majority of days this month. It was already 81 degrees at 730AM, and Chesapeake/Potomac waters are in the low/mid 80s. And the worst is yet to come. 🤮 

Our summers are great. It's clear, dry, and sunny on most days. Plus, 90 with a dewpoint in the 20s or 30s is highly tolerable.

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54 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No I’m just asking if you guys have gotten a lot of rain recently is all. Haven’t been tracking the weather out east much but I believe it’s been wet there. Wish we could even get just a day with some nice rain totals. 

I’ve been in GA since the 9th. But it hasn’t rained since I left. Just the usual..low/mid 90s and humid.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’ve been in GA since the 9th. But it hasn’t rained since I left. Just the usual..low/mid 90s and humid.

Has been 31 days since anything measurable here. You’d have no idea we had 2.38” of rain in the first half of June with how dry it’s been here. Atleast the marine layers been around. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is coming around to the EPS idea for later next week... and it shows a trough for Phil which won't be good enough for him of course.  😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7171200.png

We get 1 below average day. Miracle!

And that stuff is all 200hrs out anyway. Probably going to shift upon approach. Will probably trend cooler in the West and we’ll find a way to torch.

Actually, could be a roller coaster August based on MJO/GWO climo..first half looks horrific in the East and beautiful in the West, then it completely reverses mid/late August.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Has been 31 days since anything measurable here. You’d have no idea we had 2.38” of rain in the first half of June with how dry it’s been here. Atleast the marine layers been around. 

Wow thank goodness for that June troughing then. Would be much uglier otherwise.

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Just now, Phil said:

We get 1 below average day. Miracle!

And that stuff is all 200hrs out anyway. Probably going to shift upon approach. Will probably trend cooler in the West and we’ll find a way to torch.

Could be a roller coaster August based on MJO/GWO climo..first half looks horrific in the East and beautiful in the West, then it completely reverses mid/late August.

I definitely hope you’re wrong about a potential heatwave in mid august. It’s not going to stay 68-83 degrees every day though eventually we will get a stretch of warm/hot weather in the second half. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Wow thank goodness for that June troughing then. Would be much uglier otherwise.

I’m sure it definitely helped out here getting some decent rainfall 2 weeks before the heatwave but it’s still pretty bone dry. US is at level 5 for wildfire activity currently…the highest level and that level wasn’t even reached until august 18th last year. 
 My uncle was going to see about cutting the grass at our family property on Anderson island since it’s about 4-5 feet tall in places…but it’s so dry he’s afraid to even try in fear of accidentally starting a fire. Grass on the property needs to get cut bigtime but we’ve gotta wait. 

F02998D6-3402-4D7B-A988-B3CA63FC1AF6.jpeg

07C6473F-E733-4497-A041-A7E99B8B97FA.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, sand dune said:

It looks like 90s here for the foreseeable future. Could have a few upper 80s, too.

Yeah... today is the only really cloudy day shown in the models here.

Luckily no real heat being shown either... and it will just be back to summer perfection starting tomorrow afternoon for the foreseeable future.  

Also noteworthy that my area will likely finish July will basically no rain other than a little drizzle.    That is not normal out here at all.   But it did happen in July 2017... and July 2018 was pretty close.    Ironically we did have a significant rain event in July 2015 on the 26th and ended the month with 1.23 inches in the valley.    So this is going to end up much drier than July 2015 with no real rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like an over-performing day ahead for the Portland metro area. Clouds are already dissipating or gone. Most areas should end up close to 80.

Yes, the low clouds never 100% filled in here and I was expecting a late afternoon break out if at all.

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