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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I haven't broken a record high since late June, but I am averaging an insane 94 or so degrees for a high first 15 days.

We set record highs on 4 straight days this month which was a record for consecutive record days. Lol 
I am 2000' feet higher than you and averaging 87.5F 

Reno is at your elevation and averaging 100.2F which is astounding! 

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... today is the only really cloudy day shown in the models here.

Luckily no real heat being shown either... and it will just be back to summer perfection starting tomorrow afternoon for the foreseeable future.  

Also noteworthy that my area will likely finish July will basically no rain other than a little drizzle.    That is not normal out here at all.   But it did happen in July 2017... and July 2018 was pretty close.    Ironically we did have a significant rain event in July 2015 on the 26th and ended the month with 1.23 inches in the valley.    So this is going to end up much drier than July 2015 with no real rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.

The beat goes on. I'm sure troughing will return at some point. Until then, I will continue to enjoy summer while it lasts.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are just talking about SEA ok. But if we are talking about 80% of the PNW you are just dead wrong. The Willamette Valley, Umpqua Basin, Rogue Basin, and everywhere east of the Cascades are torching to historic levels. Yesterday SLE had marine clouds until around 11am and still hit 81. Today was supposed to be the big marine push today and I was shocked to wake up to severe clear. They should easily top 80 again. Remember July 2015 had 7 sub 80 highs at SLE. After today it is mid-upper 80s the rest of the month. The sustained warmth has just been absolutely incredible. 

Did pull off a -2 departure yesterday at least. Even if we don't beat July 2015, it won't take much in August to beat that summer given where June ended up. 

No, not just SEA.

Halfway through the summer, here's where major westside stations are at compared to 2015. And all of these will be going down over the next week.

Downtown Portland: -3

PDX: -1.5

BLI: -2

OLM: -4

SEA: -5

KUIL: -3

Seattle WFO: -3

EUG: -1

Roseburg: -3

SLE and Medford are the only major westside stations within a degree of 2015 now.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No, not just SEA.

Halfway through the summer, here's where major westside stations are at compared to 2015. And all of these will be going down over the next week.

Downtown Portland: -3

PDX: -1.5

BLI: -2

OLM: -4

SEA: -5

KUIL: -3

Seattle WFO: -3

EUG: -1

Roseburg: -3

SLE and Medford are the only major westside stations within a degree of 2015 now.

 

 

But what about the NARRATIVES?!?!11?!1

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

But what about the NARRATIVES?!?!11?!1

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Requiem said:

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

This.

Well said.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Improved here...been very fortunate this spring/summer.

Takes a bit for data to come out but June ended up being 5th warmest on record for the earth since 1880 and warmest on record for NA, with majority of the heat focused on the Western US obviously contributing to the drought conditions. 
 

Unfortunately with some of the narrative being pushed on here, we wouldn’t know we are in a drought or it’s actually warmer/drier.

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10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I'd like to think the fact that we have had the most unprecedented heat wave in the record books has some sort of bearing on why people are comparing this year to 2015, even though yes, technically this year hasn't had the insane sustained warmth that six years ago did. Sort of unfair to talk about narratives when a lot of people are speaking about their lived experiences in comparing this year with that one.

Stats are stats. Of course the June heatwave was unprecedented and a historic event that will always live in the minds of those that experienced it.

Doesn't change the fact that despite the extreme heatwave, this summer is running easily cooler than 2015 for most westside stations, and July has been very different than June for most places.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One warm day for the western lowlands and then back to marine influence.

Technically there is almost always marine influence on the west side unless there is offshore flow which is rare in the summer.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

One warm day for the western lowlands and then back to marine influence.

12z EPS following suit. Knocked off about half of the positive departure in the D5-10 range compared to 12z yesterday.

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Stats are stats. Of course the June heatwave was unprecedented and a historic event that will always live in the minds of those that experienced it.

Doesn't change the fact that despite the extreme heatwave, this summer is running easily cooler than 2015 for most westside stations, and July has been very different than June for most places.

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

Perception ≠ reality, necessarily.

Outside those 4 days of atrociousness, it has been a tame summer west of the terrain.

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Of course stats are stats, but I don't think anyone is even hinting this year is so far hotter than 2015. Still doesn't make it anything close cool summer regardless of the fact we haven't had sustained warmth like in 2015, and the heat wave absolutely shifts the perception of how this summer is going so far. 

There was a lot of speculation in June that a 2015-like pattern was locking in and that this summer was destined to be top tier hot.

Could still end up that way, but I think it was fair to counter Andrew's inference that SEA was the only station running easily cooler than 2015. July has changed things, regardless of the June heatwave and perceptions people had because of it.

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

We set record highs on 4 straight days this month which was a record for consecutive record days. Lol 
I am 2000' feet higher than you and averaging 87.5F 

Reno is at your elevation and averaging 100.2F which is astounding! 

I tied 2 this month but technically you have to be +1 over the previous record to break it. Right now a lot of them are 100 or 99. I've been within close range of those a few days.

Before 2021 my last 100+ was in 2013, so KLMT does not see a lot of them. 3 in a row happened in late June. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I dunno...do Portland and Seattle count as part of the PNW?

Apparently not.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Definitely been cooler from Portland north.

I dunno...do Portland and Seattle count as part of the PNW?

Yep, merely been a historically warm first half of summer there. As opposed to an all time recordbreaking one with a  record-shattering pace for a major historic benchmark (I mean besides the big one that both of those cities already set three weeks ago).

Great point!

And yeah Western OR has never felt like the PNW to me, either. And the eastside is gross and doesn't count and there's not a lot of real people out there anyways.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Total 15 day positive departure has been cut by roughly 40% on the 12z EPS vs 00z.

😀

That is a new way to troll... don't mention any location or method of calculation. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, merely been a historically warm first half of summer there. As opposed to an all time recordbreaking one with a  record-shattering pace for a major historic benchmark (I mean besides the big one that both of those cities already set three weeks ago).

Great point!

And yeah Western OR has never felt like the PNW to me, either. And the eastside is gross and doesn't count and there's not a lot of real people out there anyways.

Joe Bastardi was downplaying the NW heat. In his eyes, the coastlines were cool and the interior was sweltering. He also pointed out that less than 10% of the NW population lives in the interior region. So it really doesn't matter. Sorry to all the tumbleweeds in Spokane, Yakima, Pendleton, Tri-Cities, and everywhere else.🌵☀🏜

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

1) Since April 1st

2) Last 60 days

3) Last 30 days

4) July so far

 

 

anomimage (7).png

anomimage (8).png

anomimage (9).png

anomimage (10).png

No one is disputing it's been a very warm spring/summer for the PNW and the West overall.

However, unlike 2015 the western lowlands have been spared the worst of it. As I've been saying - a different kind of summer.

JJA15TDeptWRCC-NW.png.4f1328f6d105f59ca15fd347203bb417.png

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R.I.P Gearhart Wilderness. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, it's honestly gotten pretty annoying.

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Love it how the 2 people trying to downplay how warm it’s been this summer live thousands of miles away and aren’t actually even experiencing it. 

Stats don't care where you live or if you experience them. They are what they are.

I'm not downplaying anything. Andrew made a false claim that I corrected - and there was a lot of speculation in June that this summer was destined to be like 2015 or worse. That has not played out so far in most locations where posters here live.

Not sure why there's so much hesitancy to acknowledge that.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

That is a new way to troll... don't mention any location or method of calculation. 

SeaTac, 850mb departure averaged over the next 15 days.

How is that trolling? It’s legitimately good news.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Stats don't care where you live or if you experience them. They are what they are.

I'm not downplaying anything. Andrew made a false claim that I corrected - and there was a lot of speculation in June that this summer was destined to be like 2015 or worse. That has not played out so far in most locations where posters here live.

Narratives and feelings > math.

Basically sums it up.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No one is disputing it's been a very warm spring/summer for the PNW and the West overall.

However, unlike 2015 the western lowland have been spared the worst of it.

JJA15TDeptWRCC-NW.png.4f1328f6d105f59ca15fd347203bb417.png

You say “nobody’s been disputing it’s been a warm spring/summer” but have done almost nothing but that recently 😂. The maps for the first half of this summer don’t look much different than 2015 this summer it’s been warm. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

That was an amazing weekend. Second best 4th of July weather I’ve experienced in my lifetime (2014 was #1).

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