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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

You say “nobody’s been disputing it’s been a warm spring/summer” but have done almost nothing but that recently 😂. The maps for the first half of this summer don’t look much different than this summers it’s been warm. 

This is simply not true. I have repeatedly said it's been a warm spring and summer.

Pointing out that it hasn't been as warm as many expected this month, and statistically has not been 2015-level hot for the first half of summer on the westside overall, doesn't negate that. We're not talking mutually exclusive things here.

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Just to be clear, my commentary is solely westside centric, particularly the Seattle area which I’m more familiar with and have family to talk to there.

Cannot compare 2021 to 2015 in the Puget Sound region. Completely different animals.

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Just now, Phil said:

Just to be clear, my commentary is solely westside centric, particularly the Seattle area which I’m more familiar with and have family to talk to there.

Cannot compare 2021 to 2015 in the Puget Sound region. Completely different animals.

That is true for the Seattle area. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I don't get why Phil says it's been humid in D.C. July 3rd only topped out at a 61 degree dewpoint. I mean seriously? It gets worse than that in Finland.

Also the 12z EPS shows humidity departures reduced by 40% compared to the 00z run.

Been an incredibly mild and pleasant summer in D.C. +0.3 in June and -0.6 anomaly in July so far. Max of 95 this year, on one whole day.

 Absolutely nothing to complain about there and the conditions have been completely tolerable and pleasant to deal with for anyone with the mental fortitude beyond that of a 3 year old. 

I'm curious what Phil's thoughts are on Salem and Spokane's numbers. I know he's never been within about 300 miles of either and likely couldn't locate them on a map, but I believe he at least has some access to their weather data.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

This is simply not true. I have repeatedly said it's been a warm spring and summer.

Pointing out that it hasn't been as warm as many expected this month, and statistically has not been 2015-level hot for the first half of summer on the westside overall, doesn't negate that. We're not talking mutually exclusive things here.

There actually has been a stark difference between the anomaly west of the cascades compared to east.

At least in other summers when I'm having 90's for days on end, PDX is doing the same but hasn't been the picture so far.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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FWIW I’d always expected the Intermountain West, Southwest, and areas east of the Cascades to torch this summer. Don’t think that is surprising given the z-cell regime we’re in. Posted about it dozens of times over the spring.

Minus that fluky June heatwave, it’s basically followed that script. Westside sanctuary, east side furnace (w/ respect to average).

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41 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I tied 2 this month but technically you have to be +1 over the previous record to break it. Right now a lot of them are 100 or 99. I've been within close range of those a few days.

Before 2021 my last 100+ was in 2013, so KLMT does not see a lot of them. 3 in a row happened in late June. 

We had not reached 90F or warmer in the last 3 summers. We currently have 5 days at or above 90F this summer with a bunch of 89's as well. Summer of 1988 had 12 days at or above 90F which is mind blowing. 

Edit: Saw Phil's post above and was going to mention that he did call for the Southwest 4CH to expand greatly this summer which my area is definitely feeling. 

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Been an incredibly mild and pleasant summer in D.C. +0.3 in June and -0.6 anomaly in July so far. Max of 95 this year, on one whole day.

 Absolutely nothing to complain about there and the conditions have been completely tolerable and pleasant to deal with for anyone with the mental fortitude beyond that of a 3 year old. 

I'm curious what Phil's thoughts are on Salem and Spokane's numbers. I know he's never been within about 300 miles of either and likely couldn't locate them on a map, but I believe he at least has some access to their weather data.

I’ve been to Chelan and Leavenworth in the summer. It’s nice.

And yes, an “average” summer in DC is not enjoyable at all. Afternoon heat indices between 95-105 is the best you can hope for, really. Every now and then we’ll get a 2-3 day reprieve.

It was 81 degrees at 730AM back home today.

 

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24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When is it supposed to start raining today? 

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

There’s some echoes down around Olympia showing up on radar but not sure if anys reaching the ground. Suns actually partly out now and it’s up to 69 degrees. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Perception ≠ reality, necessarily.

Outside those 4 days of atrociousness, it has been a tame summer west of the terrain.

No Phil, it hasn't. Sure, SEA is probably more tame but it's still quite warm and the rest of the region is clearly warmer especially in the WV, east of the cascades and western Canada. 

But judging from your previous post about how you just focused  on SEA, I have a feeling you are truly trolling. Forget the 2015 talk, it was a clearly different summer with a different setup. But it doesn't negate the fact that this summer so far have been warmer regionally.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

Yesterday’s light drizzle that amounted to 0.00” here was apparently the highlight of the storm! Getting brighter out now. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yesterday’s light drizzle that amounted to 0.00” was apparently the highlight of the storm! Getting brighter out now. 

There’s breaks in the clouds. Don’t think it’ll be totally overcast today and we’ve already hit our max high temp for yesterday down here. 

912C6791-9115-46E4-8A35-214D4FB5330B.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, sand dune said:

Joe Bastardi was downplaying the NW heat. In his eyes, the coastlines were cool and the interior was sweltering. He also pointed out that less than 10% of the NW population lives in the interior region. So it really doesn't matter. Sorry to all the tumbleweeds in Spokane, Yakima, Pendleton, Tri-Cities, and everywhere else.🌵☀🏜

Well the bigger story here East of the Cascades is the drought.  Not as much in my location, but most of the area is under a pretty serious drought.  Since the heatwave, temps have been pretty warm, but not unusually warm.  Having almost no Spring precip going into Summer, which is always pretty dry anyway, really set things up for a bad fire year.  The heatwave didn't help of course.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to the ECMWF... the rain ends for the I-5 corridor around 9 a.m. this morning.    So its over now.   Hope you did not float away.   Picked up .01 here yesterday and 0.00 today.   

Completely dry month looking pretty likely now for every major I-5 station, except ironically the firepit of EUG. 

Even UIL stands a chance of finishing the month with just 0.04" after today. That would be their 2nd driest July on record, after 2013's 0.01". 

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33 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been to Chelan and Leavenworth in the summer. It’s nice.

And yes, an “average” summer in DC is not enjoyable at all. Afternoon heat indices between 95-105 is the best you can hope for, really. Every now and then we’ll get a 2-3 day reprieve.

It was 81 degrees at 730AM back home today.

 

The dryness here is a curse and a blessing.  Lower humidity levels make things so much more comfortable and does allow for nice cooling at night.  But that also means wildfires can really explode when they happen. 

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36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When is it supposed to start raining today? 

The timeframe you are looking for is gone like Tim said. I was tracking it this morning.... precip was over Vancouver Island and evaporated as it continued to move in land. Sadge! :(

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The timeframe you are looking for is gone like Tim said. I was tracking it this morning.... precip was over Vancouver Island and evaporated as it continued to move in land. Sadge! :(

I shouldn’t have covered the boat and put the deck furniture under cover…If I would have left everything out we probably would have gotten at least .02” 😞

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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34 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Well the bigger story here East of the Cascades is the drought.  Not as much in my location, but most of the area is under a pretty serious drought.  Since the heatwave, temps have been pretty warm, but not unusually warm.  Having almost no Spring precip going into Summer, which is always pretty dry anyway, really set things up for a bad fire year.  The heatwave didn't help of course.

The spring was much drier than normal. It's never a good thing to be abnormally dry before the traditional dry season. A blocky fall could be a disaster. I hope we see a more zonal pattern in October and November.

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Think I'm safe from hitting 90 today. I've found the oasis at last. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Completely dry month looking pretty likely now for every major I-5 station, except ironically the firepit of EUG. 

Even UIL stands a chance of finishing the month with just 0.04" after today. That would be their 2nd driest July on record, after 2013's 0.01". 

That reading at EUG makes no sense. It’s been bone dry in Springfield so I guess the station really is quite different.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, Timmy said:

On hwy 22 toward Detroit. 4 fires visible just outside salem

Just grass seed fields getting rid of the stubble. Annual occurrence around here.

As long as prevailing winds are from the west, they will burn, regardless of fire danger.

I used to do that in High School and it is extremely rare for the fires to get out of control. They do put out a lot of smoke though

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My 90's since June 1st. 

06/01/2021 - 94/51 (92 in 1986)***
06/02/2021 - 95/50 (92 in 1924)***
06/03/2021 - 90/50 (96 in 1987)

06/18/2021 - 92/44 (99 in 1985)
06/19/2021 - 94/49 (96 in 2017)
06/20/2021 - 97/47 (93 in 1945)***
06/21/2021 - 96/52 (97 in 1992)

06/24/2021 - 91/49 (97 in 1940)
06/25/2021 - 91/44 (98 in 1922)
06/26/2021 - 94/50 (98 in 2015)
06/27/2021 - 101/57 (96 in 2015)***
06/28/2021 - 103/60 (96 in 1937)***
06/29/2021 - 100/54 (97 in 1924)***
06/30/2021 - 94/51 (100 in 1918)
07/01/2021 - 93/55 (98 in 2015)
07/02/2021 - 94/51 (101 in 2013)
07/03/2021 - 96/55 (101 in 1991)
07/04/2021 - 94/51 (98 in 1991)
07/05/2021 - 96/49 (98 in 2007)
07/06/2021 - 96/51 (96 in 1906)***
07/07/2021 - 91/45 (97 in 1898)
07/08/2021 - 91/44 (100 in 1905)
07/09/2021 - 98/45 (98 in 1898)***
07/10/2021 - 99/50 (100 in 1898)
07/11/2021 - 96/52 (100 in 2002)
07/12/2021 - 96/53 (101 in 1906)
07/13/2021 - 94/50 (100 in 1996)
07/14/2021 - 93/48 (101 in 1987)
07/15/2021 - 90/49 (100 in 1922)

That was toasty. In July 2015 (1-15) my average high was 85. I polished off this first half with a 94 degree average.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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71 for a high at SEA through 5 p.m. so they did not get a second sub-70 day.  

Also interesting to note that the low level inversion mixed out today and the models were not too warm with the projected high despite there being very little sun.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

71 for a high at SEA through 5 p.m. so they did not get a second sub-70 day.  

Also interesting to note that the low level inversion mixed out today and the models were not too warm with the projected high despite there being very little sun.

70/56 here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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This plume is bigger than all the other ones. I'm looking at the aftermath of an A-bomb. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The 18Z ensembles don't look too bad but there sure are some ugly members out near the end of the month.  I'd hate for those to verify.  65 after a high of 67 and a low of 51.  Put .02" in the bucket this morning bringing my July total to .03".

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

69 here for a high today. Good enough for our first sub-70 high since 6/14 when it only reached 64.

Also recorded 0.00 in the rain gauge so now up to 30 days being bone dry, outside of a little mist yesterday morning that didn't amount to anything. 18z GFS says I should be able to make it the entire month of July while still sitting at 0.00 on the month.

It would be really nice to get some thunderstorms in August. It's been a couple years since we've had a strong thunderstorm outbreak and the rain would be very beneficial. Make it happen, Mother Nature.

 An august/September 2019 combo would be amazing. Had some awesome storms on 8/10, 8/29, 9/7 and 9/12. Was pretty wet and effectively ended the fire season early. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We’ve only had 2 July’s and 2 August’s with 0.00” of rain for the month since 2005. Looking pretty likely this’ll be the third July without anything measurable. Looking like it’ll be the 9th month on record with less than 0.05” of rain as well. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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So the reading of 0.01" July 7 at EUG has got to be erroneous. It was the day we went to pick up my kids and there wasn't a cloud in the sky so something is weird with their station. It's probly needed an upgrade since the 90s.

We are at 0.00" for the month.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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