Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Link said: No Snow Wizard the last few days. Guess the models are not spitting enough insane figures for him even though WA is having no heat waves. I think he’s found something else to occupy his time… for now. If he were interested, I’m sure he could find a cool model run or two and hype it up into the coolest finish to summer since 19whatever being basically a lock. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 87/52. Another warm and beautiful day. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Link said: No Snow Wizard the last few days. Guess the models are not spitting enough insane figures for him even though WA is having no heat waves. Jim comes and goes. His current absence has nothing to do with the models, figure he’s taking a mental break from the forums. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, Cloud said: Jim comes and goes. His current absence has nothing to do with the models, figure he’s taking a mental break from the forums. Yeah... I don't think he ever feels down about the models now no matter what they show. Everything is always amazing. And there is really nothing hot in the models right now so that is not why he is taking a break. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Nome’s sunrise is about the same as Seattle, but it won’t set again until mid 1am. Roughly 4h30m of darkness. Land of the midnight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Near term correction on the ECMWF, to a weaker 4CH. Last 3 runs: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Near term correction on the ECMWF, to a weaker 4CH. Last 3 runs: That's 4 days out, clown range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... I don't think he ever feels down about the models now no matter what they show. Everything is always amazing. And there is really nothing hot in the models right now so that is not why he is taking a break. What I'm saying is as soon as something silly comes in clown range he will have something funny to chime. I heard you say it several days a go yourself that Snow seems to be mostly interested in extreme cold range. I do love his ocean statements though about conditions going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said: When did you move? Before the pandemic hit. Looking to move back to the Eastside though. Looking for a change in job right now given things are getting back to normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Today will be TWO MINUTES SHORTER than yesterday, and will feature a pre-9:00pm sunset. Two benchmarks in one day. Only downhill from here! 3 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Let's get this summer tf over with 4 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: Let's get this summer tf over with That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! This summer has morphed into being very pleasant. We have the best weather in the country now. I hope it takes its sweet time. 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Low of 56 this morning. Suns mostly out here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! This summer has morphed into being very pleasant. We have the best weather in the country now. I hope it takes its sweet time. Every day has been 70-82 degrees with varying degrees of morning clouds and sunshine here since the heatwave. Hard to complain about that besides how dry it’s been. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like most places should be starting out with sun today. Glad all that nasty smoke is going the opposite direction. The ECMWF has come around to the idea of the marine layer sticking around on Tuesday into Wednesday now with the trough being farther east. It now shows Tuesday being very similar to last Thursday with the marine layer focused on the central Sound all day. Obviously that will keep the smoke moving away from us as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 This MJO/CCKW crossing the Pacific has kind of snuck up in the EPS mean. It is something that may lend credence to the warmer week-2 solutions (lag incorporated). But there’s subsidence on its tail, so not a pattern that’d be favored to persist. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Suspect the EPS is closer to reality than the GEFS but this will be interesting to follow either way. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Suspect the EPS is closer to reality than the GEFS but this will be interesting to follow either way. Suspect we're about to start completely torching again and won't see any rain for many more weeks to come, but it will be annoying to follow either way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 8 hours ago, Phil said: Near term correction on the ECMWF, to a weaker 4CH. Last 3 runs: Blasphemy. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 41 minutes ago, Phil said: This MJO/CCKW crossing the Pacific has kind of snuck up in the EPS mean. It is something that may lend credence to the warmer week-2 solutions (lag incorporated). But there’s subsidence on its tail, so not a pattern that’d be favored to persist. But the 4CH is progged to be decimated in week two? Conflicting long-distance reports!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: But the 4CH is progged to be decimated in week two? Conflicting long-distance reports!! Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave. Probably won’t stick around long either way. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Ominous signs for the hurricane season though. Upper level divergence returns to IO/Atlantic sector in August, right when climo gets hairy. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Phil said: Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave. Probably won’t stick around long either way. Climo at this point strongly points toward some manner of a heat spike late this month or early in August. Just based on the fact we’re entering the hottest part of the year and we’ve seen such a muted run of 500mb progressions so far this month. And chances are it won’t last forever. (See WUACD inverse) 3 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, Phil said: Just one variable. But have learned to never rule out a warm up when the west-Pacific lights up. Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though..this looks like a pretty shallow/fast moving wave. Probably won’t stick around long either way. In Washington and maybe PDX. Down here on the other hand... The airport has been running at least 2 degrees cooler than the Springfield, Thurston, Creswell, Dexter-Lowell, & Cottage Grove areas plus the south Eugene area near and around campus PWS. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 66 here and totally sunny. Probably upper 70s here this afternoon. Looks like we’re back to normal-above normal after those 2 cool days. This month hasn’t had much heat or coolness just been consistently near or above normal. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Climo at this point strongly points toward some manner of a heat spike late this month or early in August. Just based on the fact we’re entering the hottest part of the year and we’ve seen such a muted run of 500mb progressions so far this month. And chances are it won’t last forever. (See WUACD inverse) Yeah I’d imagine we will be seeing a heat spike late in the month showing up soon on the models. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 That's a helluva GOA trough on the Canadian. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 66 here and totally sunny. Probably upper 70s here this afternoon. Looks like we’re back to normal-above normal after those 2 cool days. This month hasn’t had much heat or coolness just been consistently near or above normal. Looks like Tue-Thu will be below normal many places. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 4 hours ago, TT-SEA said: That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! This summer has morphed into being very pleasant. We have the best weather in the country now. I hope it takes its sweet time. An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans. Feels like 16-17 was the last time that happened here. It's also the last winter in which this location experienced a sub-freezing high. It was actually above freezing at times during 2-25-19. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans. A cold and snowy December would be awesome... and then have spring actually start in February instead of waiting until then for winter to start. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like most places should be starting out with sun today. Glad all that nasty smoke is going the opposite direction. It’s terrible up in the methow right now. Three fires nearby and it’s just clogging up the whole valley before it can get carried away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Feels like 16-17 was the last time that happened here. It's also the last winter in which this location experienced a sub-freezing high. It was actually above freezing at times during 2-25-19. Yeah I don’t think we’re gonna see another winter of that caliber (16-17) for another 10-15 years. But if we can get a good amount of cold NW flow that’s good enough for me, since I go up into the Cascades often and that usually translates to epic weather and conditions there. And yeah Valentine’s Day 2021 was epic, but it would be very nice to see something in early to mid winter now after almost nothing in that timeframe since 16-17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 5 hours ago, TT-SEA said: That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! This summer has morphed into being very pleasant. We have the best weather in the country now. I hope it takes its sweet time. Why rush a good thing? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans. We're due in the core of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 Speaking of which, here are my predictions for the Springfield area for this coming active weather season: August: Hot, dry September: Hot then devastating fires October: Cold & frosty especially at the end of the month (coldest temps of the season), mostly dry. November: Warm & wet December: Warm, dry January: Record warm, dry February: Warm, dry March: Cooler, dry 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 I am ready for winter. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: I am ready for winter. Should be a good one in the Cascades & Salem north. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 75 and sunny here now. Getting ready for another afternoon on Lake Sammamish... should be perfect in the low 80s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 18, 2021 Report Share Posted July 18, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: It’s terrible up in the methow right now. Three fires nearby and it’s just clogging up the whole valley before it can get carried away. Ugghhh. Was just checking Lake Chelan web cams and it looks beautiful there... no smoke at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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