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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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12Z EPS through day 12... showing retrogression next week.   But the troughing in the middle of this week and early next week definitely keeps things reasonable for the next 8 or 9 days.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626609600-1626609600-1627603200-10.gif

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Diurnal winds kicked up and have started to clear things out a bit thankfully. F6A98260-0A5A-4F8D-B188-DDBCC5C221FF.thumb.png.23b5a5cc7c073c8a5fd19aed37da02df.png

Big change!

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

An actually cold/wet Dec-Jan would be nice. Really anything but the endless SW flow torching we’ve had the last three Dec-Jans.

A November firehose would be nice. The Puget Sound has had some fairly wet ones in recent years but it's been a long time since we've had one down here, and they often portend good things later on.

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12z EPS made an improvement in the tropics. Upper level divergence vacates the West-Pacific by D11-12.

D26E5BFD-B06F-41BF-B944-D66DB0CCEF8E.png

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25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We are very fortunate so far with the smokes. Have to see how long this’ll last, there’s really no offshore flow to be seen for the foreseeable future so it will continue to keep the smoke east of the Cascades. 

 

Sky is beautiful here!  Interesting little cloud formation too...

20210718_133052.jpg

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Sky is beautiful here!  Interesting little cloud formation too...

20210718_133052.jpg

Looks busy. Though I'm sure by your telling the line only took about 5 minutes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Spent the past few days on the Central Oregon Coast. Sunny all 3 days. Highs hit about 70 yesterday right off the beach. That big marine push never materialized. SLE hit 81 and 82 on the coolest days. 

Temps to remain around average the next 7 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

Every cloud that exists without your permission fuels my soul.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks busy. Though I'm sure by your telling the line only took about 5 minutes. 

Honestly... not even 5 minutes.     Super easy.   People are really efficient at the launch here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Every cloud that exists without your permission fuels my soul.

Band of cool-looking high clouds now... interestingly the ECMWF has been showing this in that exact spot this afternoon for like 5 days now.  I have noticed it on every run.   

20210718_151005.jpg

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Nice day.  I think we peaked in temperature here today. It hit 69F and is now 68F.  And as advised, I checked ten miles inland to see what a non-sea-level temp is; 75F.

Have a stupendous Sunday everyone. 

Look what I found out of pure luck,  A pre-production, 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer.  These aren't for sale until autumn.  It was being tested alongside an Escalade, and a Navigator.  Everyone was looking at the Grand Wagoneer and lots of thumbs up by people at the parks today.  Beautiful day to test drive those luxury SUVs.   I would like to think these test-drivers and journalists aren't from this area and they are seeing the PNW in it's perfect state.  Beautiful views of the Cascade's and Olympics for them to get some real glamour shots of these vehicles.

ajmccusajeepgrandwagoneerwhite22newtestdrive.jpg

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9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Nice day.  I think we peaked in temperature here today. It hit 69F and is now 68F.  And as advised, I checked ten miles inland to see what a non-sea-level temp is; 75F.

Have a stupendous Sunday everyone. 

Look what I found out of pure luck,  A pre-production, 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer.  These aren't for sale until autumn.  It was being tested alongside an Escalade, and a Navigator.  Everyone was looking at the Grand Wagoneer and lots of thumbs up by people at the parks today.  Beautiful day to test drive those luxury SUVs.   I would like to think these test-drivers and journalists aren't from this area and they are seeing the PNW in it's perfect state.  Beautiful views of the Cascade's and Olympics for them to get some real glamour shots of these vehicles.

ajmccusajeepgrandwagoneerwhite22newtestdrive.jpg

Much warmer here... and a very light wind making it feel even warmer.  Not sure about 10 miles inland... but we are only 15 miles from downtown Seattle and it's 80 degrees.    Perfect PNW summer weather.

 

Screenshot_20210718-152051_Google.jpg

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Really nice weather. If we weren't coming off the driest spring on record and hottest June/temps of all time, this would be enjoyable. As is all we have are another 60 days or so of torture. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Absolutely beautiful day out on Point Ruston in Tacoma. Even saw some seals poking their head out of the water!

20210718_134443.jpg

20210718_134349.jpg

Orca came down along Maury island southbound then around the south tip of Vashon and on up north along the Colvos passage earlier today (11:30-12:30).  I relaxed in the sun at Browns Point across the way and watched them with binoculars.  Great way to spend part of the day!!! 
 

By the way love Point Ruston!!! 

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18z is absolutely gorgeous. Highs 65-80 and lows 50-60 with lots of marine layers. Wish it could be region-wide

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z is absolutely gorgeous. Highs 65-80 and lows 50-60 with lots of marine layers. Wish it could be region-wide

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6631200.png

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Another 90-burger!

8EF2D747-1AC9-45B0-9C05-B5855730D300.webp

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

It was so gross in Montana with all the smoke and temperature pushing 96*  in locations.   Caught a break Wyoming though (Devils Tower area).  
Got to enjoy Close Encounters in the KOA theater smoke free 🛸
 

Back home and currently 79*

A8046475-D5B8-46C6-8295-5E29E0521C94.jpeg

4545C168-47CE-43F9-B79A-E1CEB1E64094.jpeg

Expecting the worst through Montana in 12 days.     It will be par for the course for us... always seems to be that way on our summer trip.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Warmer than I thought... and it was 3 degrees too cold today.    

GFS is probably too warm, verbatim. Euro maybe a tad cool.

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Just now, Cloud said:

62 on the 28th is what? 11am?

Yes... its not the high.   Seems like we need to mention that every time.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... its not the high.   Seems like we need to mention that every time.  

It’s still a spectacular run! It may be a bit too cool, so I’ll take anywhere between this and the GFS. Lovely weather

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s still a spectacular run! It may be a bit too cool, so I’ll take anywhere between this and the GFS. Lovely weather

Today could not have been nicer... I would not have wanted it 1 degree warmer or 1 degree cooler.   😀

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today could not have been nicer... I would not have wanted it 1 degree warmer or 1 degree cooler.   😀

At home I avoided 80 with a high of 79 so it’s now 5 straight days of sub-80 weather. Can’t complain! 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, you have 5 more 90+ days than EUG.

EUG hit 90 on several of their 5 min obs after 5pm. We will wait and see, but the airport may have officially hit it today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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