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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Looks like EUG officially hit 89. 88/53 at SLE for a +1 departure. Those 1991-2020 climatic norms are softening the blow!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As we all know, the GFS has Tim-biased temps.

SEA is not hitting 88 tomorrow.

Apparently it showed highs in the 60s.    I was just posting it in response to that.   I know it has a warm bias.   Although it's probably always in the 60s on the water of the Puget Sound.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Apparently we have been going through some really cold wet summer troughing recently according to someone who has disappeared from the forum. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As advertised... this pattern is effective at completely wiping out the marine layer even on the coast.      But it will shift east enough by Tuesday and Wednesday to bring back the marine layer particularly in the central Sound area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6620400.png

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210719.031617-over=map-bars=.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tuesday and Wednesday look very similar to last Thursday... sunny on the coast but low clouds hanging on most of the day right over King County. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6904800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently we have been going through some really cold wet summer troughing recently according to someone who has disappeared from the forum. 

I know right. It was a rain/snow mix here on Saturday morning. 🥶

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To be fair to Jim…I don’t think he mentioned anything about it being wet. I think he was forecasting cool and dry overall. 
 Unless…you’re talking about Phil? He’s been around lately. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

To be fair to Jim…I don’t think he mentioned anything about it being wet. I think he was forecasting cool and dry overall. 
 Unless…you’re talking about Phil? He’s been around lately. 

Never called for wet weather. So that rules me out as a suspect.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Expecting the worst through Montana in 12 days.     It will be par for the course for us... always seems to be that way on our summer trip.

Smoke hasn’t actually been that bad except for that day that he drove through. Heat was brutal today though. 99 in town and 95 in my backyard. Hottest temps since August 2018.

Expecting some storms tomorrow and even some actual stratiform rain on Tuesday with much more reasonable temps so things will likely be improving next week. Signs of a pattern change around day 10 as well to more of a NW flow pattern which would really help push the smoke out.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never called for wet weather. So that rules me out as a suspect.

 The main things I remember about your forecast from awhile back is you said July was the most likely to end up below average. Then August/September were supposed to be warm. July’s probably still going to be above average but it may end up the most average month of the summer. 
 I don’t really remember you saying anything about it being wet though either. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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On 7/12/2021 at 11:30 AM, Front Ranger said:

Tim isn't focusing on this, of course, but it's notably deeper than the GFS at day 5.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6.thumb.png.90e9fa868330b2db8e8dadf17abbc3cb.png

gfs_z500a_namer_21.thumb.png.79e70f65ffc6ed71e72dd3f9759ab458.png

 

On 7/12/2021 at 11:44 AM, TT-SEA said:

Despite all this hype about a significant pattern change to colder weather... it looks like we will probably end up out on Lake Sammamish on the boat on Sunday in 80-degree sunshine.    Brrrrr.   When will summer ever start this year?    🤨

 

Just had to pull this up from 6 days ago... Jared was hyping the troughing for this weekend and my prediction came to fruition perfectly.    That is exactly what happened today.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Smoke hasn’t actually been that bad except for that day that he drove through. Heat was brutal today though. 99 in town and 95 in my backyard. Hottest temps since August 2018.

Expecting some storms tomorrow and even some actual stratiform rain on Tuesday with much more reasonable temps so things will likely be improving next week. Signs of a pattern change around day 10 as well to more of a NW flow pattern which would really help push the smoke out.

That would be awesome... I would love for my wife to see a smoke-free Montana.    I tell her its not always smoky there but she only believes what she sees.  😁

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never called for wet weather. So that rules me out as a suspect.

In fairness... Jim went out of way to also say that even the cold patterns would be dry.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

 

Just had to pull this up from 6 days ago... Jared was hyping the troughing for this weekend and my prediction came to fruition perfectly.    That is exactly what happened today.  👍

If that's the best you could do to find "hype"... 😂

And I never disputed that comment about Sunday. Weird post.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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At this point... next weekend is looking like a carbon copy of today.    The 500mb pattern is very similar with a trough offshore which effectively wipes out the marine layer and we end up with a couple totally sunny days around 80.    And with enough onshore flow for a blue sky and no smoke.  

Today was my definition of an ideal summer day.    And it was not an anomalously warm day... it was almost perfectly normal.    There are diminishing returns for me when it gets above 85.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nobody did. Just Tim spitting out strawmen.

Andrew spit out that strawman tonight... implying Jim said it would be wet.    Not me.  👍

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If that's the best you could do to find "hype"... 😂

And I never disputed that comment about Sunday. Weird post.

There was lots of hype... most of it was not from you though.   But you were on the 'trending colder' bandwagon and wanted everyone to know I was intentionally ignoring the ECMWF for Saturday.    But I was not ignoring it... that is how I made my prediction for Sunday.     I looked at the ECMWF map showing 75 and sunny for Sunday and said it would be 80 and sunny and we would be on the water.  ;)

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Canadian looks stormy.

E7EC7A66-C414-4D72-A4EA-50A0A52381E7.png

Even the GEM shows mid 70s for Seattle on that day.  

The 00Z GEFS for that day... same general pattern.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-7430400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nw-t2m_f_max6-7430400.png

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS loves death ridges.

This looks like something Tim daydreamed up while bored in history class.

A1121FFD-BA6F-4BB5-8224-7DC59738A556.png

I did draw lots of weather maps at a really young age.   My mom has weather maps in a box from when I was 3 or 4 years old and I could free hand draw a map of the US with all the states and always put a snowstorm right over Minnesota.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did draw lots of weather maps at a really young age.   My mom has weather maps in a box from when I was 3 or 4 years old and I could free hand draw a map of the US with all the states and always put a snowstorm right over Minnesota.   😃

I actually did the same thing with nor’easters. 😅

When did you fall out of love with winter? Sounds like you weren’t always a heat weenie.

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Did Jim not say it was going to be wet? I'm not sure, he's so detached from reality. He scoffed at my prediction the WV would not see any sub-80 highs. He was acting like "Even TWL will see some chilly days." At least when Phil messes up on a forecast he sticks around to face the music. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I actually did the same thing with nor’easters. 😅

When did you fall out of love with winter? Sounds like you weren’t always a heat weenie.

I still love snow... but the window of time that I love it keeps shrinking.   November - January is still good.   I am ready for spring by February.    And I am not a heat miser.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did draw lots of weather maps at a really young age.   My mom has weather maps in a box from when I was 3 or 4 years old and I could free hand draw a map of the US with all the states and always put a snowstorm right over Minnesota.   😃

I did same thing!

Although I wasn’t able to draw a map of the US at age three, because I wasn’t Rain Man.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did Jim not say it was going to be wet? I'm not sure, he's so detached from reality. He scoffed at my prediction the WV would not see any sub-80 highs. He was acting like "Even TWL will see some chilly days." At least when Phil messes up on a forecast he sticks around to face the music. 

I really appreciate that about Phil too.

But I was reading back over the July thread and Jim said many times that it would likely stay dry.

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I did same thing!

Although I wasn’t able to draw a map of the US at age three, because I wasn’t Rain Man.

Maybe I was 4 or 5.   And I did not say I could draw it perfectly... but I did account for all the states. 😀

Those geography and state capitals tests in 2nd or 3rd grade were very easy... I had that down long before that.    I remember being fascinated with road maps too.   I could be entertained for hours with a Rand McNally Atlas.  

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Okay it appears it's either keywords or sentence strings causing my posts to fazz out and not go thru due to some kind of filter.  :(  Sadly I don't know what words or sentences they are as I was pointing out about the trough our summer was suppose to have.  None of the words were bad.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I really appreciate that about Phil too.

But I was reading back over the July thread and Jim said many times that it would likely stay dry.

Phil hit the head with that one.  He was right on Jackaroo. (Insert Australia accent). 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did Jim not say it was going to be wet? I'm not sure, he's so detached from reality. He scoffed at my prediction the WV would not see any sub-80 highs. He was acting like "Even TWL will see some chilly days." At least when Phil messes up on a forecast he sticks around to face the music. 

He seems to be stuck in a troughtastic fantasy. I think I had some flurries whatever day we had some clouds come in that morning but it all melted by 9am.  So far Jim's big trough is pretty warm. 

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