Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I figured yesterday would be a negative departure and it didn’t end up that way. We will see how long the clouds hold on it’s clearing up down by Olympia. We have a bit better shot at a negative departure today even if we clear out earlier than expected due to us getting down to 52 this morning. 

What data do you use to calculate your departures?

None of the major I-5 stations were above normal yesterday (BLI, Seattle WFO, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG).

Today and tomorrow should have significant negative departures most places.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

What data do you use to calculate your departures?

None of the major I-5 stations were above normal yesterday (BLI, Seattle WFO, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG).

Today and tomorrow should have significant negative departures most places.

1991-2020 Tacoma averages. It ended up just normal here just because we had a low of 59 yesterday despite a below average high temp. Today has a better shot since we cleared out last night and cooled off. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West-Pacific is active right now. Similar to the early/middle part of June…and we know what happened afterwards.

Will this event produced a similar long wave response over the NPAC next month? Or will seasonality save the day?

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting take re: aerosol indirect effect.

Smoke warms top of BL —> strengthens the cap —> delayed convective initiation —>  more heating/larger CAPE upon initiation.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

West-Pacific typhoon influence galore.

Slow recurve west of climo with a stall. Models will have a blast trying to figure this one out. :lol: 

D408AAC9-A538-41AC-9E4B-976323BDC262.gif

1DC71D46-D0DA-4F57-B903-004A9292BBD0.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sunday sure has trended warmer and drier... on Monday the ECMWF showed some rain and clouds that day but everything has since shifted to the north and west and it now shows wall-to-wall sun and temps in the 80s.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting kind of hopeful SLE can pull off a sub-80 day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a pair of 90+ days on tap this weekend, could easily see that turn into a 3-4 pack. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Definite north/south gradient to the anomalies from day 3 on with the Euro.

12Z EPS for SEA and PDX... consistent pattern.     

And no marine layer days in sight after today.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6868800.jpg

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-6868800.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Impossible. The EPS had warm 850mb temps.

SEA is bit odd now... generally warm month so far and about to get warmer. 

 

anomimage (11).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well.   Definitely has not been a cool month.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well.   Definitely has not been a cool month.

Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water.

OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places.

Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month.

As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water.

OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range.

+0.9 through yesterday here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month.

As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean.

Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us.     They were actually just a little warmer than normal.    And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown.    I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days.   But who knows?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us.     They were actually just a little warmer than normal.    And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown.    I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days.   But who knows?

That’s..not true at all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is the kind of weather Jim would be ecstatic for! Hope he’s doing alright. 

It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. 

The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. 
 

I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. 
 

I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. 

Yeah it’s definitely not been terrible this month despite it being warmer than normal in the Seattle area. SEA is a weird situation for sure. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...