Front Ranger Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I figured yesterday would be a negative departure and it didn’t end up that way. We will see how long the clouds hold on it’s clearing up down by Olympia. We have a bit better shot at a negative departure today even if we clear out earlier than expected due to us getting down to 52 this morning. What data do you use to calculate your departures? None of the major I-5 stations were above normal yesterday (BLI, Seattle WFO, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG). Today and tomorrow should have significant negative departures most places. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: What data do you use to calculate your departures? None of the major I-5 stations were above normal yesterday (BLI, Seattle WFO, SEA, OLM, PDX, SLE, and EUG). Today and tomorrow should have significant negative departures most places. 1991-2020 Tacoma averages. It ended up just normal here just because we had a low of 59 yesterday despite a below average high temp. Today has a better shot since we cleared out last night and cooled off. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 That’s a beautiful -NAO on the LR GFS. Too bad it’s the GFS. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Well..this is one way to flush out the wildfire smoke. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KDCA&num=168&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 West-Pacific is active right now. Similar to the early/middle part of June…and we know what happened afterwards. Will this event produced a similar long wave response over the NPAC next month? Or will seasonality save the day? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Interesting take re: aerosol indirect effect. Smoke warms top of BL —> strengthens the cap —> delayed convective initiation —> more heating/larger CAPE upon initiation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 West-Pacific typhoon influence galore. Slow recurve west of climo with a stall. Models will have a blast trying to figure this one out. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Sunday sure has trended warmer and drier... on Monday the ECMWF showed some rain and clouds that day but everything has since shifted to the north and west and it now shows wall-to-wall sun and temps in the 80s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 It’s up to 60 here which is pretty chilly…but we’re starting to clear out a bit. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Through 20 days. Below average! https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KSEA&p=temperature&mon=7&wfo=sew&year=2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Chilly breeze out there! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Getting kind of hopeful SLE can pull off a sub-80 day. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Looks like a pair of 90+ days on tap this weekend, could easily see that turn into a 3-4 pack. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Sure is cloudy here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Clouds are hanging on here at noon still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Definite north/south gradient to the anomalies from day 3 on with the Euro. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 65 and still cloudy here but getting brighter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Cloud said: Through 20 days. Below average! https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KSEA&p=temperature&mon=7&wfo=sew&year=2021 Impossible. The EPS had warm 850mb temps. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: Definite north/south gradient to the anomalies from day 3 on with the Euro. 12Z EPS for SEA and PDX... consistent pattern. And no marine layer days in sight after today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Impossible. The EPS had warm 850mb temps. SEA is bit odd now... generally warm month so far and about to get warmer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Seattle is dying. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: SEA is bit odd now... generally warm month so far and about to get warmer. Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well. Definitely has not been a cool month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places. True. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: WFO SEA is at +2.3 for the month so far... which is about what it is out here as well. Definitely has not been a cool month. Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water. OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Actually, the next two days will bring that down a bit more many places. Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month. As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Certainly cooler further west and closer to the water. OLM will be around +.7 after today. BLI +1.9. And places at the coast are generally in the 0 to +1 range. +0.9 through yesterday here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Far cry from those blood red EPS maps we’ve seen posted for the last month. As I said awhile back, there are correct and incorrect ways to interpret an ensemble mean. Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us. They were actually just a little warmer than normal. And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown. I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days. But who knows? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: Actually... those EPS maps never showed red over us. They were actually just a little warmer than normal. And the 500mb pattern ended up more troughy over the last 10 days than was originally shown. I have a feeling that will not be the case for the next 10-15 days. But who knows? That’s..not true at all. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s..not true at all. It’s been a cold July. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 69 and partly sunny now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: Impossible. The EPS had warm 850mb temps. This is the kind of weather Jim would be ecstatic for! Hope he’s doing alright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cloud said: This is the kind of weather Jim would be ecstatic for! Hope he’s doing alright. It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s really only SEA that’s running that cool though. Today will be below normal though does feel nice. While the other stations around the Seattle areas positive anomalies have come down it’s still been above average. Will probably be +0.7 or +0.8 after today here in Tacoma. BLI, OLM and WFO are still above normal but 1-2 degrees above normal is still not too bad. I’m sure august will make up for it. The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Nice to see the smoke scoured out of eastern WA as well with this trough... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cloud said: The main takeaway is that July isn’t torching for W. Wa, which is what Jim was predicting. The rest of the month looks reasonable as well. Outside of SEA my area is also running warmer. So strange when SEA is the cool station. I’m thinking we’ll pay for this in August as I could see another heatwave for next month. Yeah it’s definitely not been terrible this month despite it being warmer than normal in the Seattle area. SEA is a weird situation for sure. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 72 now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Think the end of the month will be pretty hot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 74 and mostly sunny here. Pleasant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 21, 2021 Report Share Posted July 21, 2021 Cloud deck was thinner today and it also cleared up a lot quicker. However, temps appears to run more or less the same. Currently up to 73 so we’ll probably run 2-3 warmer than yesterday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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