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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Temps July 2021 to July 2015 to date:

PDX: -2

OLM: -3.5

SEA: -4.5

And there are going to be some impressive lows tomorrow morning, which you can suck.

#not2015

The ****? 

How that post led you to engage in personal insults is beyond me. Apparently even the slightest suggestion that there was colder weather at some point in the past is enough to get you to completely melt down. 

Get some help.

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38 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The ****? 

How that post led you to engage in personal insults is beyond me. Apparently even the slightest suggestion that there was colder weather at some point in the past is enough to get you to completely melt down. 

Get some help.

Stats = complete meltdown?

Address the actual content of the post. If you take me telling you to "suck low temps" seriously, you might need to reevaluate your internet comprehension skills.

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On 7/20/2021 at 4:53 PM, Front Ranger said:

Some of the models are now hinting at ridging returning and warm to hot regional temps as we get to days 9-10. Strongest sign we've really seen of it this month.

 

19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

#julyisnotover

 

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48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Temps July 2021 to July 2015 to date:

PDX: -2

OLM: -3.5

SEA: -4.5

And there are going to be some impressive lows tomorrow morning, which you can suck.

#not2015

🤡

You're the only one who's utterly obsessing over this idea that 2015 is the gatekeeper for an "average hot summer" here. It's not and it was in fact an unprecedented hot summer at the time. The fact that we can seriously entertain that being rivaled this year in a good number of spots is a testament to how crooked things are at the moment. 

And there's no way that a winter (or summer) month that was averaging 2 degrees below normal across the I-5 stations would be getting dismissed by you so casually for its near averageishness. 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

🤡

You're the only one who's utterly obsessing over this idea that 2015 is the gatekeeper for an "average hot summer" here. It's not and it was in fact an unprecedented hot summer at the time. The fact that we can seriously entertain that being rivaled this year in a good number of spots is a testament to how crooked things are at the moment. 

And there's no way that a winter (or summer) month that was averaging 2 degrees below normal across the I-5 stations would be getting dismissed by you so casually for its near averageishness. 

The 2015 comparisons were not invented by me. See the June 2021 thread.

It was a speculative joke. And July has failed to live up to the hype.

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Chilly morning. Down to 43. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

BUT..2015!!1!11!!

That is actually a pretty impressive stat... lowest July maximum since 1986.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is actually a pretty impressive stat... lowest July maximum since 1986.  

Areas along the water have been cool. Mark Nelsen mentioned in his blog last night that Salem is on pace for their 4th warmest July of all time. Where my brother lives down on the southern Oregon Coast, temps have been average this month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

The pattern has served the west side well, in terms of moderating sea breeze.  The interior continues to bake in extreme heat

Yeah... its been quite consistent.

And yet... this July has been very sunny here overall.    Only a handful of days with clouds into the afternoon.   And the rest of the month looks sunny.    I would not expect that given a situation with heat just over the mountains all month and such a strong west-east thermal gradient.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cooling continues across the Pacific, as upwelling increases in association with the recent trade burst and termination of the downwelling OKW.

This will moderate temporarily following the CCKW propagation across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks, but later in August and September should see another trade surge.

La Niña conditions likely by October or November. 

F199171F-C4B8-4B78-9E15-DFA066A4E089.png

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cooling continues across the Pacific, as upwelling increases in association with the recent trade burst and termination of the downwelling OKW.

This will moderate temporarily following the CCKW propagation across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks, but later in August and September should see another trade surge.

La Niña conditions likely by October or November. 

F199171F-C4B8-4B78-9E15-DFA066A4E089.png

Hard to believe that a summer in the middle of a multi-year Nina has been so warm and dry in my area.  Historically that has been a recipe for a chilly and/or wet summer.  Years like 1955, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2011.    

To say this spring and summer have been the complete opposite of what I expected is a understatement.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

The 2015 comparisons were not invented by me. See the June 2021 thread.

It was a speculative joke. And July has failed to live up to the hype.

Nobody cares if we end up top 5 or the hottest summer on record at this point. It’s been a warm dry summer. July will end in the +2-4 range for many places…more like +1-3 near the water…after an anomalously warm June. Yes please keep telling us how “reasonable” this summers been because iTS nOt as hOT As 2015 while you’re out of state not even experiencing it.  You literally care more about proving it hasn’t been as hot as 2015 than anyone on here. Nobody even cares that much if it ends up #5 or #1 a warm dry summer is a warm dry summer. It might as well be 2015 with how dry it’s been.  #1 might be harder to do near the water but many could still do it. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Stay tuned for Flatiron’s next argument: if we completely ignore the last week of the month July 2021 was nowhere near as hot as our hottest July on record.

Shame on me for providing actual stats that show July 2021 hasn't been near as warm as July 2015 most places.

Feelings and narrative above all else.

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nobody cares if we end up top 5 or the hottest summer on record at this point. It’s been a warm dry summer. July will end in the +2-4 range for many places…more like +1-3 near the water…after an anomalously warm June. Yes please keep telling us how “reasonable” this summers been because iTS nOt as hOT As 2015 while you’re out of state not even experiencing it.  You literally care more about proving it hasn’t been as hot as 2015 than anyone on here. Nobody even cares that much if it ends up #5 or #1 a warm dry summer is a warm dry summer. It might as well be 2015 with how dry it’s been.  #1 might be harder to do near the water but many could still do it. 

1. I responded to someone (James Jones) who was making a direct comparison to 2015. Maybe you should take it up with him.

2. Where I live has nothing to do with the stats. I lived in the PNW (including Tacoma) longer than you've been alive, just FYI. I have family in the PNW and plenty of reasons to be invested in the weather there, so really no reason to try to make that argument.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Areas along the water have been cool. Mark Nelsen mentioned in his blog last night that Salem is on pace for their 4th warmest July of all time. Where my brother lives down on the southern Oregon Coast, temps have been average this month.

SLE has represented the warm end of the spectrum for the westside this month, for whatever reason.

Almost everywhere else is running a cooler anomaly, most places much cooler.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1. I responded to someone (James Jones) who was making a direct comparison to 2015. Maybe you should take it up with him.

2. Where I live has nothing to do with the stats. I lived in the PNW (including Tacoma) longer than you've been alive, just FYI. I have family in the PNW and plenty of reasons to be invested in the weather there, so really no reason to try to make that argument.

You seem to have missed the point though. Nobody really cares if it’s the #1 summer or #3 or #5. It’s been warm that’s what we’re talking about. Looks like the final 1/3 of July will bump the averages up even more after a really warm June on top of it. Constantly trying to tell everyone its not going to get to 2015 (when it very well could depending on august) and that its been a “reasonable summer” because were running behind 2015 (for now) is all you care about. Can you not actually see how irritating that actually is and why you’re getting sh*t from everyone? Then try to insult James jones when you don’t like what they’ve got to say real nice. Nobody even really cares about the point you’re trying to drive into everyone’s heads. It’s been rough with how dry it’s been out here and it’s been warm in many places to the south and away from the water wether it hits 2015 levels or not is beside the point for many of us. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You seem to have missed the point though. Nobody really cares if it’s the #1 summer or #3 or #5. It’s been warm that’s what we’re talking about. Looks like the final 1/3 of July will bump the averages up even more after a really warm June on top of it. Constantly trying to tell everyone its not going to get to 2015 (when it very well could depending on august) and that its been a “reasonable summer” because were running behind 2015 (for now) is all you care about. Can you not actually see how irritating that actually is and why you’re getting sh*t from everyone? Then try to insult James jones when you don’t like what they’ve got to say real nice. Nobody even really cares about the point you’re trying to drive into everyone’s heads. It’s been rough with how dry it’s been out here and it’s been warm in many places to the south and away from the water wether it hits 2015 levels or not is beside the point for many of us. 

Again, if you don't like me bringing up 2015 or other really hot summers, then you should fairly apply that to the people who originally started making those comparisons, based off June. It is what it is. And I have not been the only one pointing out how absurd it was for people to jump to conclusions about the whole summer based off of an extreme heatwave - which is exactly what happened.

The dryness is a whole other thing. I've never disputed the fact it's been really dry since mid June.

I told James Jones he can suck this morning's low temps. If you take that seriously and find it to be a terribly mean insult, I fear what the rest of the internet might do to you.

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to believe that a summer in the middle of a multi-year Nina has been so warm and dry in my area.  Historically that has been a recipe for a chilly and/or wet summer.  Years like 1955, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2011.    

To say this spring and summer have been the complete opposite of what I expected is a understatement.  

2012 was the last summer that felt like it was really La Nina influenced at all. 2017, 2018, and this year all have shown no indications of -ENSO being a factor.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

BUT..2015!!1!11!!

 

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some people might have made those 2015 comparisons during the height of the historic heatwave but only one person here seems to be so fixated on it that they are continuing to recall those comparisons almost a month later.

No one else has been beating the 'this is not 2015' drum harder than you. You've made your point over the past month, then made it again, and then made it again just to make sure the dead horse was beat enough. Now you should let it rest or you will keep getting responses similar to James Jones, TacomaWaWx, etc.

I didn't bring up 2015 last night. Someone else did. And then someone else this morning. 

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12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again, if you don't like me bringing up 2015 or other really hot summers, then you should fairly apply that to the people who originally started making those comparisons, based off June. It is what it is. And I am not the only one pointing out how absurd it was for people to jump to conclusions about the whole summer based off of the extreme heatwave - which is exactly what happened.

The dryness is a whole other thing. I've never disputed the fact it's been really dry since mid June.

Right and I understand you never disputed the dryness you said it’s been dry everyone knows that. But the warmth regionally is more than just the heatwave. Many locations had record breaking stretches in the 90s outside of the heatwave. It’s not like it hasn’t been warm outside of the heatwave it’s more than that. Many places are running above normal still this month and the final 1/3 will bump that up even more. We've been lucky in the Seattle area compared to the rest of the region. August could very well end up warm too. It’s not so outlandish to think 2021 could challenge 2015 in many places based off the first half of the summer…despite a “reasonable” but still above normal July that you’ve been praising. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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