Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2012 was the last summer that felt like it was really La Nina influenced at all. 2017, 2018, and this year all have shown no indications of -ENSO being a factor.

Summer has always been a bit more hit and miss with -ENSO. 1996, 1985, 1942, etc.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You and I both know what I said is true, whether the latest 2015 comparisons were specifically brought up by you or not.

I believe facts and context matter. You made it sound like I'm just bringing up 2015 out of the blue, when that was not the case.

I responded to something someone else posted about 2015, not the other way around like you said.

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

You and I both know what I said is true, whether the latest 2015 comparisons were specifically brought up by you or not.

I didn't get a turn to beat the dead horse yet. For Reno and Tahoe this summer has been much warmer than 2015. July is currently running +9F over July 2015 in Tahoe city and +10F for Reno. This is in fact the hottest summer ever recorded by a large margin up to this point. Lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Don't feed the beast.

You know I truly didn’t understand what everyone was talking about when the term “flatironing” was brought up when I started here. I fully understand now. 

  • Like 5
  • lol 1
  • Sick 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. SLE's torch not withstanding...temps are looking similar for BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, and EUG.

That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

Jul13TDeptWRCC-NW.png.7e8c733d9e05bb5192d2092f7f73adf6.png

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

Jul13TDeptWRCC-NW.png.7e8c733d9e05bb5192d2092f7f73adf6.png

:huh::huh:

Some July 2013 mean temps on the eastside:

GEG- 73.94

YKM- 77.48

RDM- 69.58

PDT- 75.34

Some July 2021 mean temps so far, with a hot last week of the month still to come.

GEG- 77.55

YKM- 79.60

RDM- 72.38

PDT- 77.50

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to 61 now and totally sunny 3 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time. 
 Nice to see a sub 50 low in the July/August period. Haven’t had one since 7/20/19. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know I truly didn’t understand what everyone was talking about when the term “flatironing” was brought up when I started here. I fully understand now. 

It’s quite a fascinating phenomenon. I think it has to do with living at high altitudes.

  • lol 1
  • Snow 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

:huh::huh:

Some July 2013 mean temps on the eastside:

GEG- 73.94

YKM- 77.48

RDM- 69.58

PDT- 75.34

Some July 2021 mean temps so far, with a hot last week of the month still to come.

GEG- 77.55

YKM- 79.60

RDM- 72.38

PDT- 77.50

I literally said for the westside.

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

To be fair to him, there are a few users here that will drive their points so far into the ground they emerge on the other side of the Earth. The only difference is how they go about beating the dead horse. One tries to use debate tactics to make himself feel intellectually superior to others, one will threaten to beat you and cuss you out if you don't agree with his point, and one has gotten incredibly skilled at masking it as innocent banter after years of people giving him sh*t for it.

See, now you're turning this into ad hominem rather than sticking with facts and logic. Downvote.

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In terms of recent Julys on the westside, 2013 is probably the best overall comp to this year for temps, at least it will be 3/4 of the way through. SLE's torch not withstanding...temps are looking similar for BLI, SEA, OLM, PDX, and EUG.

That July was also significantly warmer on the eastside.

 

This was the comparison I made for temps to 2013. The westside.

I then added that in another similarity, 2013 was also significantly warmer on the eastside. I did not say the eastside temps were similar. 

Nuance is apparently hard.

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This satellite covers the entire US and allows us to see the West Coast while the GOES West satellite is apparently offline.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This was the comparison I made for temps to 2013. The westside.

I then added that in another similarity, 2013 was also significantly warmer on the eastside. I did not say the eastside temps were similar. 

Nuance is apparently hard.

You probably should have worded it differently if that was the case, as in "that July also featured significantly warmer departures on the eastside of the Cascades versus the westside".

It's been a tough summer for you.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You probably should have worded it differently if that was the case, as in "that July also featured significantly warmer departures on the eastside of the Cascades versus the westside".

That literally is just a wordier version of what I said. 😆

Maybe you're just going out of your way to try to prove me wrong?

  • Weenie 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

How’s the EPS looking. Any rain coming?

 

The flat lake fire near our cabin received about 0.1” of rain last night. Might be enough to slow it down for a couple days 

Here is the 00Z EPS... basically no rain but also doesn't show any hot weather either.     Just consistent warmth.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626912000-1626912000-1628208000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_precip_inch-8208000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6912000.png

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That literally is just a wordier version of what I said. 😆

Maybe you're just going out of your way to try to prove me wrong?

Nah, your wording was just poor and pretty easily misinterpreted. I'm actually giving you the benefit of the doubt in assuming that was in fact what you really meant.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This satellite covers the entire US and allows us to see the West Coast while the GOES West satellite is apparently offline.  

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northamerica-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks. I was trying to get a satellite photo of the fire near us and found out the Goes west was offline. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 00Z EPS... basically no rain but also doesn't show any hot weather either.     Just consistent warmth.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626912000-1626912000-1628208000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-total_precip_inch-8208000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6912000.png

If those numbers verified here in Tacoma by the end of July we would be running +1.5. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Thanks. I was trying to get a satellite photo of the fire near us and found out the Goes west was offline. 

Very unfortunate time to have the GOES satellite down with all the fire activity currently and potentially coming up. Hopefully it’s back online soon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The GFS and CMC have some significant differences in mid range pattern development, with the GFS going much more Aleutian low style. Will be interesting to see which way the Euro goes.

12Z GEFS for the next 10 days...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626955200-1626955200-1627819200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

49 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The GFS and CMC have some significant differences in mid range pattern development, with the GFS going much more Aleutian low style. Will be interesting to see which way the Euro goes.

That Aleutian low is spawned from the West-Pacific CCKW and typhoon influence that is relatively transient.

So whether it verifies or not, it’s unlikely to stick around for long. We return to a west-based La Niña type tropical forcing (intraseasonal) very quickly in early August (which can still be warm).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Holy crap, I can't believe I am the only one that has noticed that this summer has been running in step 100% exactly like 2021.  It's completely different than any other year and looks like that trend will continue through the remainder of the summer!!  Boom bittches!!

You need new material. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS for the next 10 days...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1626955200-1626955200-1627819200-10.gif

Man, that would be an amazing severe pattern imby, as long as we don’t end up under the ridge.

Though with E-Hem/Indian Ocean MJO/CCKWs next month, that fat, ugly 4-corners/plains ridge is only going to get fatter and uglier. I fear a top-5 hot August is in store for the lower-48. And September is looking progressively worse of late, as well. Even squinting, I don’t see any real hope on the horizon. :( 

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man, that would be an amazing severe pattern imby, as long as we don’t end up under the ridge.

Though with E-Hem/Indian Ocean MJO/CCKWs next month, that fat, ugly 4-corners/plains ridge is only going to get fatter and uglier. I fear a top-5 hot August is in store for the lower-48. And September is looking progressively worse of late, as well. Even squinting, I don’t see any real hope on the horizon. :( 

That’s like saying “I fear next Tuesday will be followed immediately by a Wednesday.”

  • Sad 1
  • Storm 1
  • Sick 1
  • Weenie 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s like saying “I fear next Tuesday will be followed immediately by a Wednesday.”

To be fair, there haven't been a ton of top 5 warmest Augusts nationally in recent years. Two since 2003. 

Hasn't been a record warmest since 1936. Due!

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...