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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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00Z ECMWF is much warmer... back over 100 in Portland by a week from tomorrow.    Ugghhh.     Sure would be nice to maintain this pleasant balance.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF is much warmer... back over 100 in Portland by a week from tomorrow.    Ugghhh.     Sure would be nice to maintain this pleasant balance.    

Also toying with some offshore flow at times.  Could bring some smoke out from the bc interior 

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14 hours ago, Phil said:

Man, that would be an amazing severe pattern imby, as long as we don’t end up under the ridge.

Though with E-Hem/Indian Ocean MJO/CCKWs next month, that fat, ugly 4-corners/plains ridge is only going to get fatter and uglier. I fear a top-5 hot August is in store for the lower-48. And September is looking progressively worse of late, as well. Even squinting, I don’t see any real hope on the horizon. :( 

Thank God this is opposite Phil summer. I look forward to #iceage starting in August :)

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It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

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46 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

A forum for the end of the world.

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24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

lol here you go banging your 2015 drum again that nobody even cares about at this point. We all know it’s been modestly warm north of Portland in western WA compared to the region like has been discussed many times recently thanks again for the heads up. Here’s the issue though…a few people said right after the heatwave this summer could go on to be like 2015 and backed off…and here you are a month later still letting everyone know about it because you need to let everyone know how smart you are. People aren’t even arguing about 2015 at this point it’s all you. Funny thing is it’s about to get warmer and bump this months averages up and august could still even push us to record territory for the summer as a whole. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like convection propagates out of the West-Pacific by the start of week-2.

There’s lag time/reverberations globally, but overall the system seems to want to correct back to the La Niña type circulation faster than last month.

1455624B-E406-4458-8E41-A3552C4C97B7.png

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

It was clear it would get hot again at some point this summer. Our four weeks of onshore flow with temps just 2-4 degrees above average was pretty pleasant.

I guess the most one can hope for is it is a relatively short lived event with some sort of pattern change on the far side. Although we all know the odds are low of either being the case.

Summer is easily the longest season here now.

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BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

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51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

lol here you go banging your 2015 drum again that nobody even cares about at this point. We all know it’s been modestly warm north of Portland in western WA compared to the region like has been discussed many times recently thanks again for the heads up. Here’s the issue though…a few people said right after the heatwave this summer could go on to be like 2015 and backed off…and here you are a month later still letting everyone know about it because you need to let everyone know how smart you are. People aren’t even arguing about 2015 at this point it’s all you. Funny thing is it’s about to get warmer and bump this months averages up and august could still even push us to record territory for the summer as a whole. 

What? I didn't say anything about 2015. I pointed to the actual anomalies for this month, because someone said it's been "+2 to +4 with onshore flow".

Seems like you're just looking for something to argue about now.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What? I didn't say anything about 2015. I mentioned the actual anomalies for this month, because someone said it's been "+2 to +4 with onshore flow".

Seems like you're just looking for something to argue about now.

I’m looking for something to argue about? You know exactly what you were doing when you posted that don’t act dumb. You’re looking for an argument that’s all you’ve done the past month. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

My idea of worst-case weather for our region keeps getting reset. Our spring dryness was worse than a worst-case scenario. Our heat wave at the end of June was worse than a worst-case scenario. The dry streak that we are on feels like it could end up worse than a worst-case scenario too. 

Worst-case to me is warm and/or dry.

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Don’t even know why I try reasoning with the king of shifting goalposts. Lol keep trying to show everyone how and educated and right you are good job! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m looking for something to argue about? You know exactly what you were doing when you posted that don’t act dumb. You’re looking for an argument that’s all you’ve done the past month. 

Sorry, but you said I was "banging the 2015 drum" when I didn't even mention 2015. You were reading things into what I said that literally weren't there. 

That's on you. Just don't make assumptions like that and we'll be fine.

A forum for the end of the world.

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t even know why I try reasoning with the king of shifting goalposts. Lol keep trying to show everyone how and educated and right you are good job! 

No need to make things personal and insulting. I'm not doing that with you.

And how was I "shifting goalposts"? Now you're just throwing meaningless sh*t out there. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Sorry, but you said I was "banging the 2015 drum" when I didn't even mention 2015. You were reading things into what I said that literally weren't there. 

That's on you. Just don't make assumptions like that and we'll be fine.

You know EXACTLY what you were doing there. For someone this smart you shouldn’t be playing dumb. Just trying to get a rise out of people because you want to show everyone how correct you are.  I don’t even know why I respond but here I am. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

No need to make things personal and insulting. I'm not doing that with you.

Lol you do it all the time just in a very subtle condescending way. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know EXACTLY what you were doing there. For someone this smart you shouldn’t be playing dumb. Just trying to get a rise out of people because you want to show everyone how correct you are.  I don’t even know why I respond but here I am. 

I was pointing out facts. You should stick to those instead of this pettiness. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I was pointing out facts. You should stick to those instead of this pettiness. 

Lol now you’re the victim somehow…the person instigating all of this the past month is now the victim here. I’m not going to clog the forum up with this anymore I’ve said what I said. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BLI is at 38 consecutive days without measurable rain.

Their record is 54 days, a mark which now stretches to the end of the current GFS range. There's really no rain or meaningful troughing anywhere in sight, so they have a good chance of breaking that record as it stands right now.

SEA has to get to 55 days to tie their record, and they are also on a 38 day streak. Again, a pretty decent chance they get there.

PDX has a much longer way to go to hit their record of 71 days, but something tells me they'll do it.

The best chance of breaking the streak with the coming pattern most places would probably be tapping into an unusually strong surge of monsoonal moisture making it north.

Small chance, but don't really see another path to precip unless models shift radically.

A forum for the end of the world.

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

My idea of worst-case weather for our region keeps getting reset. Our spring dryness was worse than a worst-case scenario. Our heat wave at the end of June was worse than a worst-case scenario. The dry streak that we are on feels like it could end up worse than a worst-case scenario too. 

Worst-case to me is warm and/or dry.

The second half of August is our best case scenario for some decent rain to return, although the last two decades have taught me not to put any faith into August.

If balance was still even remotely a thing in the climate universe then one would historically anticipate some significant rain and summer coming to a screeching halt around August 20 given how crooked things have been. My suspicion is that it'll wait a few more weeks this year just for some extra torture.

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The best chance of breaking the streak with the coming pattern most places would probably be tapping into an unusually strong surge of monsoonal moisture making it north.

Small chance, but don't really see another path to precip unless models shift radically.

The 00z Euro oddly gave some scattered moisture to western OR during the middle of next week. Showed about 0.06" for PDX on Wednesday on a 90 degree day. Doesn't look like a particularly convective setup with the limited instability and forcing, and none of the other models show the same little batch of showers so my guess would be it's out to lunch.

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I know facts can be controversial and inflammatory around here, but everywhere Portland north is running below +2 for the month.

What’s Bellingham at, out of curiosity.  YVR and YXX are both well above +2 through the 22nd

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Mild night last night here with a “low”of 60F 

Sounds lovely! 

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Seattle Times is imploring people to get out and enjoy our bright summer while it lasts because we will all be mole people living in the dark very soon.  😀

st7.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle Times is imploring people to get out and enjoy our bright summer while it lasts because we will all be mole people living in the dark very soon.  😀

st7.png

We’re going to catch our first M’s game since the pandemic Monday night against the Astros! Definitely bringing a jacket though since daylight is waning 

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