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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.

Long way to go. But some obscure stations like OLM, SEA, and VUO are definitely not on track to end up that warm. 

August will be telling!

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2004 was a bit of a poor man's version of that. Septembers in both years were also quite pleasant and troughy.

Unfortunately our current warm season climate is no longer anything like the 1970s, and even the 2000s are noticeably cooler. Winters have certainly changed here but summers have changed much faster and much more decisively.

Summers (or the warm season in general) have definitely been starting earlier recently, but I wouldn't say they've been stretching long.

September 2019, 2018, 2016, and 2015 were all cool to average-ish temp wise for the region, with a decent amount of rain, and even 2017 turned abruptly fall-like halfway through.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Summers (or the warm season in general) have definitely been starting earlier recently, but I wouldn't say they've been stretching long.

September 2019, 2018, 2016, and 2015 were all cool to average-ish temp wise for the region, with a decent amount of rain, and even 2017 turned abruptly fall-like halfway through.

Having summer essentially start in late April recently more than makes up for fall starting more or less on time.

Historically our hottest or driest Septembers were in years with much wetter and cooler spring and summer weather than we've seen recently. 2012, 2011, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974... it makes sense that we haven't quite seen the magic combo of a bone dry spring, a crazy hot and dry summer, and a thoroughly summer-like September. Maybe this will be the year we break through and go full Sacramento.

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Heh..there’s actually a substantial QBO relationship to PNW summers since the 1990s. Not sure if it’s statistically significant but it’s there.

There are exceptions, but I think there is a substantial difference between these two groups. Some of the exceptions are clearly ENSO driven.

* denotes deviations from expected long wave pattern.

+QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004* 2006* 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013*, 2016, 2019, 2020.

-QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2001*, 2003, 2005, 2007*, 2009, 2012*, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021.

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17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hot and dry to warm and dry!?

Pretty big changes!!

With the caveat that it could just stay insanely hot.

That’d be a marine layer pattern so westside would catch a break.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Heh..there’s actually a substantial QBO relationship to PNW summers since the 1990s. Not sure if it’s statistically significant but it’s there.

There are exceptions, but I think there is a substantial difference between these two groups. Some of the exceptions are clearly ENSO driven.

* denotes deviations from expected long wave pattern.

+QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004* 2006* 2008, 2010, 2011, 2013*, 2016, 2019, 2020.

-QBO within/descending below 40hpa: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2001*, 2003, 2005, 2007*, 2009, 2012*, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2021.

This actually extends back into the 1980s as well. Data less reliable before the satellite era but I think there’s something here.

What stands out the most is there are no hot summer niñas in the W-QBO group.

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57 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, no. It’s far from a stretch to say this summer is on track end up close to as hot as or even hotter than 2015 for many parts of the region, fog belt locations within five miles of Puget sound notwithstanding.

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 
 

2015 was a different set up with a different pattern. Sorry that it’s warmer this year. 

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Tropical bombardment increasingly likely starting in mid-August.

Kinda true every year. But this is an abrupt switch flip from hostile conditions to favorable conditions as TUTTs leave the picture.

6719AD9E-2179-4E41-B22F-E95D967BB518.png

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 

Maps don't lie.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.0a3a7bfc536696aec3abf19e85bf4f8f.png

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I think the fact Jared and I actually agree on something (re: 2015) is as compelling an argument as any. 

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think the fact Jared and I actually agree on something (re: 2015) is as compelling an argument as any. 

Nobody’s saying that it’s been hotter than 2015 in Seattle I do agree with you and Jared on that. This month hasn’t been bad but it might be a bit warm at the end. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Maps don't lie.

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.thumb.png.0a3a7bfc536696aec3abf19e85bf4f8f.png

We will see how much those numbers go up by the end of the month. Glad it didn’t end up being as bad as we thought it might be after the heatwave. Shouldn’t be as big of a positive anomaly as June was thankfully. Now we’ve just got to get through august…might not be fun if Phil’s right.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see how much those numbers go up by the end of the month. Glad it didn’t end up being as bad as we thought it might be after the heatwave. Shouldn’t be as big of a positive anomaly as June was thankfully. Now we’ve just got to get through august…might not be fun if Phil’s right.

Worried about August, though there are ways we could weasel out of it. If the west-pacific lights up mid-month it’s game over, though.

Can’t see how NH middle latitudes in general don’t blowtorch well into the autumn, but maybe I’m full of it.

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Also, what a spectacular cave by the GEFS to the EPS in VP200 evolution. Folded like a wet piece of paper.

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Up to 88F beautiful day. Been following NCAA conference realignment very closely as it directly affects my charity and I have the kiddos over so not a lot of time to post.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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5 hours ago, Cloud said:

Yeah……. I’m very sorry that you’re gonna end up warmer but I don’t live in said parts so I can’t relate. Facts are facts and W.Wa been running a 0 to +2 anomalies for July. And that’s about the only thing I care about. 
 

2015 was a different set up with a different pattern. Sorry that it’s warmer this year. 

Well if you only care about the small part of the region surrounding your house, don’t chime in on a debate regarding regional anomalies with incorrect statements like you did earlier. Sorry that it’s warmer everywhere else this year and wherever you live is largely unrepresentative of the region.

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Just now, Jginmartini said:

79/51 currently 76*

80* denied but another beautiful day to be out playing in it :) 

I thought we were headed for 80 too but we maxed out a bit before 5pm. Some 80s are coming. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I thought we were headed for 80 too but we maxed out a bit before 5pm. Some 80s are coming. 

North wind over the Sound will battle to keep us a bit cooler then the rest  (according to HRRR).  I think we will still string a few 80*+ this weekend into next week though.

BDB1894E-A190-488C-95CE-F0BA7AA11CA7.jpeg

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Heads up guys, expect some whining from Winter (wiener?) dog soon ☺️

Haha, no whining from me, I'm just impressed that you were able to unearth 42 of my posts that you hadn't already downvoted.  I probably haven't made 42 posts in the past year.   For something as innocuous as downvotes you sure put a lot of effort into it.  

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1 hour ago, Acer said:

Haha, no whining from me, I'm just impressed that you were able to unearth 42 of my posts that you hadn't already downvoted.  I probably haven't made 42 posts in the past year.   For something as innocuous as downvotes you sure put a lot of effort into it.  

Took me maybe two minutes. 

#skills

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Low of 57 this morning. Quite a bit warmer than the last 3 mornings. Should be enough of a head start to push us into the 80s this afternoon too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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