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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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That shelf cloud passage was awesome. I haven't seen anything like it since then.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

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A forum for the end of the world.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

Don't leave out KLMT!! 😜

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

We will see what those numbers look like by the end of the month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I know there’s a wildfire thread…but fires across the region will need to be watched since there’s a possibility of some offshore flow returning to the region. Hopefully if it happens it isn’t long lived. Basically anything from the north east or south is going to import smoke in. 

D1ECF6B0-4D4C-475E-B8CB-9169F3AE84C2.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

They will go up. Regardless, SLE will likely remain a warm outlier.

I ran the numbers and the NWS SEA forecast would put us at +1.6 and the Euro forecast would put us at +1.9. Of course my location isnt representative of the region being less than a mile from the sound.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

This is a narratives-only zone. Facts aren’t allowed here.

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

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Today adds yet another 90+ degree day. I think we passed 2018 in number of days.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Here is the "misinformation" that I'm spreading, according to Andrew. Somehow I am twisting the stats to push my narrative that SLE is a warm outlier.

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

Looks like you did all the dirty work for me. Interestingly, I was  in the middle of doing something like this yesterday but had to wrap it up early for some business and couldn't get back to it. 

Weather happens and no way we can take it back, but the extreme heatwave skewed the data if you want to take a look at this summer up to date. I'd say it's been quite reasonable, but hey, it is what is with the narrative. 

I will say though that we still have August to go through and as it stands right now, I'm actually quite afraid for what this month will bring. 

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Looks like we hit 94F today. Nice and normal temps.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we hit 94F today. Nice and normal temps.

Just your imagination. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Bootleg Fire spawned a powerful tornado last weekend. See Fire thread for more info. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We are on the north side of Lake Stevens now just east of Everett dropping off my daughter at a friend's house.... its 80 here.   

The temperature difference is massive.  Much of Everett's waterfront is sea level, but then if you go to the south, the elevation is higher and temps can sometimes run 5 degrees warmer.  Then as you get further from the water, temps get even hotter as you pointed out.  It seems like on average (I have no evidence, just go with me here, lol) Everett is 5-10 degrees cooler than Seattle.  It is definitely cooler than Tacoma.  

Hope you had a great time at least seeing the lake. :) Beautiful day to enjoy it or see it from your car at the very least. 

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Just now, NWbyNW said:

The temperature difference is massive.  Much of Everett's waterfront is sea level, but then if you go to the south, the elevation is higher and temps can sometimes run 5 degrees warmer.  Then as you get further from the water, temps get even hotter as you pointed out.  It seems like on average (I have no evidence, just go with me here, lol) Everett is 5-10 degrees cooler than Seattle.  It is definitely cooler than Tacoma.  

Hope you had a great time at least seeing the lake. :) Beautiful day to enjoy it or see it from your car at the very least. 

First time we have seen Lake Stevens... its was gorgeous and packed with boats!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First time we have seen Lake Stevens... its was gorgeous and packed with boats!

There are a lot of great lakes in Snohomish County.  Lake Stevens is very built up, but if you prefer surroundings of forest, there are plenty of those lakes nearby too.  But if you live in North Bend, you already have nature's bounty all around you. :)

 

I have no scientific temperature gauges here, but decided to take a peak at what Weather Underground has for current temps in the Everett vicinity.

At my current spot, it is 60F.  I am near sea level.  Another station at the port says it is 61F.

A weather station in Downtown Everett which is a higher elevation says 64F.  At the far southeast end of the city away from the water, the temp is ranging from as low as 58F to 62F.

Now we head east to a downtown Snohomish station which says 64F.  A north Lake Stevens station reads 63F right at the water, while two nearby say 66F and 67F near Walker Hill.

I realize this isn't the optimal time to look at temperature variations in the region, but there we have it. :)

 

 

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

Wow, yeah that really shows it. I don't remember ever seeing at that bare either. I think it was maybe 2004 that I remember it getting quite exposed by the end of summer, but not that much.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, Cloud said:

I’ve lived here for 30 years, I don’t recall seeing her this bare.  This was taken couple days ago.

Also, if you dig deeper into the thread, the NWS said south side of the mountain at Paradise lost 3 to 4 feet of snow during the heatwave. 

9284116A-78A4-4DC0-B471-5F8BFA3333D9.jpeg

Yeah I was looking at Mount Rainier from Redmond and I have not seen so much rock this early in the summer in the 5 years Ive been here. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hiked up to Hanging Lake near Glenwood Springs.

IMG_20210718_133239415_HDR.thumb.jpg.462370f749ed3d6c1bd265cfe6767790.jpg

IMG_20210718_134130512_HDR.thumb.jpg.0e4e537d79d6e81c5c070d06771ca431.jpg

They had a big fire there in that region last year.  When we were in Glenwood Springs the gardens were still closed.  Saw a lot of burnt vegetation along I-70.  Someone on the river posted a video of the first few minutes of the fire.  

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

They had a big fire there in that region last year.  When we were in Glenwood Springs the gardens were still closed.  Saw a lot of burnt vegetation along I-70.  Someone on the river posted a video of the first few minutes of the fire.  

 

Yeah, it got very close to the lake and waterfalls. Could see burnt trees on both sides of trail at times, and just over the ridge from the lake.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I know it's not PNW-related, but the monsoon is properly showing its teeth this year. Tucson is having its 12th wettest monsoon season (to date) of all time. The past few days in Phoenix have been crazy cool for this time of year, and tomorrow is likely to follow suit, with another potential sub-85 (very likely sub-90) day there. Three sub-85 days in a row have never happened before. And oh yeah, Phoenix is much wetter than average, too. It's nice to see nature+regional climatology working properly for once.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know it's not PNW-related, but the monsoon is properly showing its teeth this year. Tucson is having its 12th wettest monsoon season (to date) of all time. The past few days in Phoenix have been crazy cool for this time of year, and tomorrow is likely to follow suit, with another potential sub-85 (very likely sub-90) day there. Three sub-85 days in a row have never happened before. And oh yeah, Phoenix is much wetter than average, too. It's nice to see nature+regional climatology working properly for once.

I’m here now. I came down for this weekend specifically but am so disappointed! I’m in Avondale though, and most of the rain and crazy weather has been further east. Hoping for something tomorrow. 

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I've missed some days due to work scheduling, but it needs to be said:

Today will be two minutes and twenty two seconds SHORTER than yesterday...

Which was two minutes and nineteen seconds SHORTER than the day before...

Which was two minutes and sixteen seconds SHORTER than the day before...

Which was, finally, two minutes and thirteen seconds SHORTER than my last check-in! 😲😆👏

If my arithmetic serves me, that ought to be around the order of nine minutes and ten seconds in total...in just four days... 😳

winter is coming GIF

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Taking the NWS forecast through the end of the month:

SLE is on pace for a July mean of 73.3, which would break the record from 2015 by 0.2F

EUG is on pace for 71.4 which would be 0.1F behind 2015 and 2nd warmest on record. 

PDX is on pace for 72.9 which would be 5th warmest on record. 1.2F behind 1985. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Redmond is on pace to finish the month at 72.6 which would top 1968 for the warmest July on record by 0.5F

Burns is on pace to finish July at 74.8 which would beat out 2006 by a whopping 2.3F. 

Ontario is on pace to finish July with an astonishing 85.6 mean, which would blast away July 2007 by 3.3F. 

Spokane is on pace to end the month with a mean of 77.4 which would blow away their previous hottest July by 2.1F. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

06z GFS was disgusting. Ensembles not fully on board.

Satellite image is equally disgusting. Literally almost the whole west is under some degree of smoke.

4E297C96-F35C-4DE8-94C2-31795EC5BF5C.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Probably only a matter of time before the wind is not in our favor. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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