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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Satellite image is equally disgusting. Literally almost the whole west is under some degree of smoke.

4E297C96-F35C-4DE8-94C2-31795EC5BF5C.jpeg

 

May start mixing in here more and more the next few days as the winds aloft variate a bit and possibly even back to the south somewhat. Will be done with the clear blue skies for awhile once that happens.

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38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

06z GFS was disgusting. Ensembles not fully on board.

Wow, what a blow torch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm thinking a top 5 hot August is a pretty safe bet. Probably going to be an end to end shitshow. We really can't catch a break this year.

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably only a matter of time before the wind is not in our favor. 

This is what I am not looking forward to.  Any indications that we can expect smoke in Western Wa anytime soon?  I think Oregon is more likely to get it before us though.

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

Should also be quite cold and amazing in Covington.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hit our first 90 of the month yesterday at 90 degrees even. Today should be close again. Then should pick up at least another 3-4 later this week into the weekend.

Absolutely cannot wait for this summer to end, or really any summer these days. Will probably be waiting for awhile, though.

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

 

May start mixing in here more and more the next few days as the winds aloft variate a bit and possibly even back to the south somewhat. Will be done with the clear blue skies for awhile once that happens.

Yep, I was going to take time off in august for a week long camping trip but I’m going to wait until the first fall rains hit to take time off. Probably won’t be worth it in august with the smoke. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

We will hear how reasonable this summers been over and over still even if august ends up super hot. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I am grateful temps have stayed mostly in the low 90s this month, better than 117! On the other hand, no real crash, just insane warm airmass moderated slightly by onshore flow. Places whose climates are influenced more by onshore flow (i.e. near the water or gaps), have seen their temps moderated more this month. Not a tough concept. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is going to be great. Can't wait for people who live 2,000 miles away to tell me how normal it is. 

Straw man. No one is saying your summer has been "normal", Andrew. Pointing out that SLE's temps do not reflect the whole westside, as they have been a warm outlier, is not saying that.

Not a difficult concept.

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will hear how reasonable this summers been over and over still even if august ends up super hot. 

Just looking at July/August 1978, nice crash that year. Holy cow the July 20-August 10th period was hot. 6 100+ days at SLE peaking with a 3 pack of 100s in early August that topped out at 106. The next two weeks ended up being cool and wet with 2.56" of rain that August. Which is more rain in one August than we have seen in the past 10 combined. :)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Straw man. No one is saying your summer has been "normal", Andrew. Pointing out that SLE's temps do not reflect the whole westside, as they have been a warm outlier, is not saying that.

Not a difficult concept.

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. And if we look at the east side, this month is blowing away pretty much every July one record over a wide area. 

 

As my previous post which you ignored, stated, it really comes down to how prone an area is to marine influence with weak onshore flow and amazingly consistently warm upper level airmasses. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. 

Yes, if one completely overlooks western WA, SLE is not as much an outlier.

No doubt the eastside is a different story.

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are splitting hairs. Shawnigan, MUCH further north, has an even bigger departure. Eugene is on pace for their 2nd warmest July of all time, PDX 5th, not much of an outlier. And if we look at the east side, this month is blowing away pretty much every July one record over a wide area. 

 

As my previous post which you ignored, stated, it really comes down to how prone an area is to marine influence with weak onshore flow and amazingly consistently warm upper level airmasses. 

Face it. We are the desert hinterlands now. KSEA and points north are all part of the Neo PNW

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am grateful temps have stayed mostly in the low 90s this month, better than 117! On the other hand, no real crash, just insane warm airmass moderated slightly by onshore flow. Places whose climates are influenced more by onshore flow (i.e. near the water or gaps), have seen their temps moderated more this month. Not a tough concept. 

Yeah, the heat hasn’t really gone anywhere and has been incredibly consistent throughout the west this month, following the hellwave in late June. We’ve just lucked out in that the ridge axis has been to our east much of the time. The fact that many places on the west side are still seeing one of their warmest Julys on record despite having onshore flow much of the month sort of says it all.

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes, if one completely overlooks western WA, SLE is not as much an outlier.

No doubt the eastside is a different story.

I don’t think there’s much in the way of a legitimate argument to made about either being any kind of an outlier. Though I do wonder if you believe that cold outliers even exist.

It’s been kind of a unique July despite being very mundane overall from a pattern evolution perspective.  I still think the fact that PDX will very likely end the month with an all-time warm min/max while likely staying below 95 degrees is a testament to how consistent the pattern has been and how the intense thermal gradient very much drove bus. Areas that typically flourish in an enhanced marine layer performed as you would expect.

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17 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Monthly anomalies to date. SEA is the cool outlier. SLE is the warm outlier. The mean falls in the +1 to +2 range.

SEA: -.4

AST: -.3

Quillayute: -.1

OLM: +.3

HIO: +1.2

Hoquiam: +1.2

BLI: +1.6

VUO: +1.6

WFO Seattle: +1.8

PDX: +1.8

EUG: +2.4

MMV: +2.4

TTD: +2.6

SLE: +2.9

 

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think there’s much in the way of a legitimate argument to made about either being any kind of an outlier. Though I do wonder if you believe that cold outliers even exist.

This post from last night showed how SLE literally is the warm outlier for the westside, and SEA is the cool outlier.

Nothing to argue about - it's just fact.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

 

This post from last night showed how SLE literally is the warm outlier for the westside, and SEA is the cool outlier.

Nothing to argue about - it's just fact.

Neither look like an outlier at all. Just the opposite ends of a generally warm spectrum overall.  

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Neither look like an outlier at all. Just the opposite ends of a generally warm spectrum overall.  

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

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78 here now... heading out on the water.   I remember earlier this week the models were actually showing some rain for today.    I would trade a sunny, warm Sunday for some rain at this point.    I still want summer to continue but some rain would be awesome.    

It was pouring rain here on this day in 2015... and North Bend ended up with 1.3 inches of rain on 7/25 and 26.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

We also have a legit chance to break July, 2015. But I guess we aren't part of the region...like Feb, 2021.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And Andrew was accusing me of semantics...

Both are furthest from the mean, and least representative of the western lowlands overall. That was the point.

Semantics? I think it’s more about intellectual honesty if you actually apply the definition of the term outlier. Neither station is throwing off the mean at all and fit quite well within what would be expected based on the prevailing patterns this month. Not rocket science…

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Just now, Jesse said:

Shaping up to be a pretty vile 12z Euro run.

Totally not that far above normal, lest we forget.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks a little cooler than yesterday’s overall. 

Some improvement out beyond hour 200 I guess. But the upcoming heat event starting late this week keeps getting stretched out. I’ll always take improvements in the mid range over the long range, because I am a weenie 🌭 

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29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Semantics? I think it’s more about intellectual honesty if you actually apply the definition of the term outlier. Neither station is throwing off the mean at all and fit quite well within what would be expected based on the prevailing patterns this month. Not rocket science…

It is apparently rocket science though since we keep having the same discussion on here. It’s honestly not even worth trying to explain has been stated many many times already. People can believe what they want…I’m not going to spend time trying to change minds that don’t want to be changed. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Some improvement out beyond hour 200 I guess. But the upcoming heat event starting late this week keeps getting stretched out. I’ll always take improvements in the mid range over the long range, because I am a weenie 🌭 

Looks like a pretty traditional mid summer heatwave. Haven’t seen any prog, including today’s vile Euro run, that depicts any real offshore flow component as the ridge axis remains solidly to the east. 

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like a pretty traditional mid summer heatwave. Haven’t seen any prog, including today’s vile Euro run, that depicts any real offshore flow component as the ridge axis remains solidly to the east. 

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔  

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

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Just now, Jesse said:

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔 

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

Some 2019 like heavy rains like august and September would be so nice. Had 1/2” of rain here on august 10th that year. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Didn’t realize vile had to include offshore flow. 🤔 

Be nice if it rained. Some earlier runs were toying with the idea of some monsoonal moisture getting entrained on the back end of the traditional heat wave. I liked those runs.

I’ll have to check the forum hyperbole matrix I drew on the back of a Dominos pizza box, if I can find it.

And yeah, getting in on the monsoonal fun would be nice at some point. A couple runs tried to tweak the dry westerly component but it looks less likely at the moment. Should help keep the smoke mitigated for now, though.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looking at July/August 1978, nice crash that year. Holy cow the July 20-August 10th period was hot. 6 100+ days at SLE peaking with a 3 pack of 100s in early August that topped out at 106. The next two weeks ended up being cool and wet with 2.56" of rain that August. Which is more rain in one August than we have seen in the past 10 combined. :)

Late august 2015 redux wouldn’t be bad as horrible as that summer was. Was a pretty unique, wet storm that brought a pretty significant punch of southerly winds with it too. Was a very fall like storm. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Late august 2015 redux wouldn’t be bad as horrible as that summer was. Was a pretty unique, wet storm that brought a pretty significant punch of southerly winds with it too. Was a very fall like storm. 

September 2015 was fairly pleasant too, although the torching resumed in earnest in October.

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