SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 26, 2021 Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 Looks like temps could cool to near average by day 10. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 26, 2021 Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 July 30, 2020 vs July 26, 2021 snow pack. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 26, 2021 Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 ***SLIGHT*** differences over Northern Canadia between the GFS and Euro at day ten… 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted July 26, 2021 Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, Deweydog said: ***SLIGHT*** differences over Northern Canadia between the GFS and Euro at day ten… Euro will cave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 26, 2021 Report Share Posted July 26, 2021 42 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Awoke at 3 am so decided to just head up to Rainer this morning. So I was already up there during that first shot you took! Smoke free ! Incredible shot. Where was it taken? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, T-Town said: Incredible shot. Where was it taken? Sunrise on the northeast side of Rainer. Beautiful views from everywhere! Also had a friend join me 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Sunrise on the northeast side of Rainer. Beautiful views from everywhere! Also had a friend join me Love Sunrise. You can pretty much just wander from the parking lot and find incredible views. Did the Mount Fremont Lookout Trail a few years ago. Spectacular. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 80/56 in Tacoma today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 8 day event south of Portland. 7/24: 94 7/25: 94 7/26: 90+ 7/27: 91 7/28: 93 7/29: 97 7/30: 97 7/31: 94 Forever event south of Portland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 HCS Watch issued for tomorrow! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, T-Town said: Love Sunrise. You can pretty much just wander from the parking lot and find incredible views. Did the Mount Fremont Lookout Trail a few years ago. Spectacular. Did that first thing this morning for the first time. Then proceeded to the Burroughs Mountains trail. Spectacular area and so close to home ! Better add some weather input for today 82/56 today currently sitting at 78* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: HCS Watch issued for tomorrow! ECMWF says we might avoid that disaster tomorrow... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Sunsets going to be so awesome tonight. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Breezy! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 hours ago, Front Ranger said: Euro says PDX may hit triple digits to close out the month. But please always remember it was only 90 there for a monthly max through July 23. IMPRESSIVE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 6 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Based on local records it appears that summers in the first half of the 20th century were drier and sunnier than in the second half the century around here. Its hard to say what the long-term normal is, but maybe dry, sunny summers are more normal than the 1980s and 1990s would lead you to believe. The 1980s and 1990s weren't exactly cool summers either, especially compared to the 1950s-60s. They just seem positively frigid in comparison to 2014-now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UWStudent15 Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 (edited) So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events. When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air? If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's Edited July 27, 2021 by UWStudent15 Adding an addendem due to my buzz 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 RAIN! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, UWStudent15 said: So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events. When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air? If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's Troughing is just a broad term for a dip in the jet steam with some form of cyclonic flow and relatively cool upper levels. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 77/52 on the day. Currently 58. Nice evening! 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, Deweydog said: RAIN! Sprinklers come on? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Pretty decent jet for early August out in la la land. 2 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Pretty decent jet for early August out in la la land. A cool August shocker would be fitting given the rhetoric in here of late. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: A cool August shocker would be fitting given the actual weather here of late. Phixed it phor you! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Phixed it phor you! Hottest summer in the history of summers. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, UWStudent15 said: So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events. When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air? If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's Hey my degree was in history too. I actually found this site when trying to learn more about historic weather for the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Hottest summer in the history of summers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Decent convective outbreak a whole bunch of days from now on the Canada model. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 00Z ECMWF shows 97 at PDX on Thursday and 102 on Friday... seems pretty likely July will be another month with a high temp over 100 there. ECMWF also shows lots of high clouds on Saturday keep the temp down into the mid 90s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 6 hours ago, UWStudent15 said: So I really appreciate how much enthusiasm you all have for weather and atmospheric analysis. I'm mostly a lurker here aside from when large events happen (like most I would imagine). And frankly, I graduated this past June with a degree in history so I'm no scientist. That being said my interest in weather is drawn from my history studies -- specifically the impacts weather has had on shaping humanity in a variety of different ways. All of this being said I think I'm beginning to pick up a few things and if I'm not correct please correct me so I can move forward with at the very least a basic understanding of both large scale and small scale events. When you guy's refer to 'troughing' is it related to a low pressure system descending from the north and bringing cold air? Does it require the absence of a high pressure system? I remember a few years ago there was hurricane Dorian (I think that was the one) which was essentially stopped by a brick wall of a high pressure system over Florida which caused it to sit over the Bahamas for a few days. Is there a link between the troughing you all refer to and the jet-stream diverting its course on a southerly direction, creating a void of low pressure and pulling down the aforementioned cool air? If you read through all of this I really appreciate it, I'm trying to learn bit by bit. Maybe one day I can be a solid contributor to these discussions! PS: Sorry if I rambled a bit I've had a few IPA's First off, glad to have you here! Awesome to see new faces streaming in. There are a couple answers to your question. The functional/"What does this mean for my weather?" answer (what I'm assuming you're looking for) is that troughing is associated with a southward "dip" in the jet stream+storm track; the inverse of a "ridge", which is a northward surge in the jet. Troughing is (usually!) associated with cooler, wetter weather and is what us snow weenies look out for in the winter, since they can bring down arctic air from Canada. There is a more technical answer to this question, since troughing is a real meteorological term that is associated with physics; although you do not need to learn this, since local weather knowledge+pattern recognition goes a long way, and is in most cases all you really need. -- If you are interested, the more technical/"correct" answer to this involves the literal thickness of the atmosphere. Warm air being less dense than cold air means that it literally takes up more volume per unit mass comparatively. This is significant because we know that due to gravity, the atmosphere exerts a certain amount of pressure at any given point on or above earth's surface. We can measure atmospheric pressure using a device called a barometer, which uses mercury to determine just how heavy the atmosphere is at that location; usually measured in millibars (mb) due to how fine that unit of measurement is. The higher you go, the less pressure is exerted, since there is less atmosphere weighing down from above (the rest is below.) At sea level, where most of the world lives, the atmosphere exerts roughly 1000mb of pressure. For the sake of simplicity, let's say we have two identical airmasses, except one is 5°C cooler all the way up (surface to tropopause) than the other. We'll call the cooler one our "trough" sample. Now since we know that cold air contains less volume than warm air due to its higher density, we can infer that our trough airmass will be denser, and consequentially less spacious, than our warm airmass. To understand why that's important, let's compare what's going on inside our two examples. Starting at the surface, in this case sea level, we find the same measurement between the two (close to 1000mb), since in both cases the same amount of mass is weighing down from above. But as we increase our elevation, at the same rate, we'll find that the amount of atmospheric pressure exerted begins to diverge. We'll notice that the colder airmass will have a lower atmospheric pressure than the warmer airmass, even at the same altitude, let's say 15,000 feet. In other words, we do not need to go as high up to find a given pressure reading than in the warm airmass. The elevation at which, say, 500mb exists, is literally lower in a cooler airmass than in a warm one. If you were to make a cross-section, with x representing a slice of the surface and y as altitude, you'd find that there would be a "dip" in 500mb elevation where the airmass was cooler. Hence, a "trough"! Why is this? Well again, we need to think about our airmasses in terms of both temperature and volume. As we raise our barometer higher into the trough airmass, we'll find that we're rising above more air molecules at a faster rate than in the warm airmass, since the air is cooler and denser. To get a better idea of why this is, I threw together a diagram, since I am not too elegant with words. The same concepts are there, but presented visually. Essentially the term trough in an atmospheric context is used when thinking in terms of pressure, like a topographical map. Wikipedia has a great article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trough_(meteorology). 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 35 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: What a comeback! Go Mariners! Buzz is really starting to build about this team… 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 00Z ECMWF is not going in a good direction for next week... looks like more heat coming. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 I think it’s safe to say there might be some PATTERN VOLATILITY coming up. Definitely a big shift from a very blah July. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: What a comeback! Go Mariners! My first game of the season and they did not disappoint. Atmosphere was great and so was the weather! Best game I’ve been to in a LONG LONG time. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think it’s safe to say there might be some PATTERN VOLATILITY coming up. Definitely a big shift from a very blah July. August sh*tbox! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: A cool August shocker would be fitting given the rhetoric in here of late. Weren’t you predicting an august “furnace” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Weren’t you predicting an august “furnace” Phil can't predict sshit! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 3 hours ago, GHweatherChris said: Phil can't predict sshit! He's correct down here. Right on the money! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Today will be two minutes and twenty eight seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 3 1 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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