Front Ranger Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Models are all over the place after day 6. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Models are all over the place after day 6. Might be the result of typhoon activity picking up in the WPAC. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 00z EPS took a pretty decisive step toward keeping the trough well offshore following the heatwave (which means the heatwave wouldn’t really end) And so it begins. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Basically take whatever worst case nightmare scenario there is for our ecosystem and the most crooked, one sided departure from anything resembling climo that you can imagine and you have a great weather prediction tool lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: What a comeback! Go Mariners! Excellent form on the bat drop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 At least it’s cloudy out this morning. Might be the last clouds we see for at least a few weeks, unless you count smoke. Low of 59. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 First thunder since June 24 (as well as rain). Overall the storms are not strong but I am picking up enough rain out of these to freshen the air a lot. Thunder chances extend out to next Monday according to AFDs. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 There was mention also that a chunk of the modeled precipitation is shown over the Bootleg burn scar. They're not expecting flooding that way; but if any isolated severe thunderstorm happens there it wouldn't surprise me if they pick up 1-2". Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Low of 58 this morning in Tacoma. Looks like they’re on the edge of the Marine layer this morning but we’re socked in and foggy here on the island. Heck of a sunset and moonrise last night too. 5 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area. Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models? I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect. He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip. It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 That was a warm euro run. Has 2 days in the 70s then lots of low to mid 80s. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Jesse said: 00z EPS took a pretty decisive step toward keeping the trough well offshore following the heatwave (which means the heatwave wouldn’t really end) And so it begins. Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, BLI snowman said: Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former. God I hope not. Seems like we’re going to pay for July being not “too bad”. Atleast it wasn’t up here this month through today but it’ll be warm here to finish. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: God I hope not. Seems like we’re going to pay for July being not “too bad”. Atleast it wasn’t up here this month through today but it’ll be warm here to finish. I expect August will likely be 31 days of above average temperatures here, barring any smokeouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area. Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models? I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect. He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip. It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla. Here is the link to the Canadian smoke model... only goes out 3 days though. https://weather.gc.ca/firework/index_e.html 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Smoke is still not into western WA at the end of the run... 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Played soccer last night and there was a pretty thick haze over Baker, I'm assuming smoke is starting to move into the area. Speaking of which, can someone provide me a good link to the smoke forecast models? I have a good friend who is a photographer, and he is headed to Glacier UP next week, and I wanted to pass it along to him so he has an idea of what to expect. He said he is already "financially committed" to the trip. It looks like they are having some good days based on talking to my son and posts from Kayla. HRRR smoke model is pretty good https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ Current image shows the smoke mixing in a bit on the westside Tomorrow will probably be the smokiest day of the year so far for Western OR as more gets mixed in. Not terrible yet but will be increasingly noticeable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Seeing a lot on social media about lightning over the Cascades last night. Heard of at least one fire start near Oakridge. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I expect August will likely be 31 days of above average temperatures here, barring any smokeouts. First week of august looks pretty good warm…but we will see how this plays out with the models with the energy in the western pacific…I’d bet on warmth though since this is a 21st century summer. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I expect August will likely be 31 days of above average temperatures here, barring any smokeouts. Could be different down here. Just had two top tier months in a row. Three probably has never happened before. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Probably no rain or sub 85 weather here any time soon. Might be 3-4 weeks before we see the latter and likely at least that long for the former. At face value, almost everything other than the Euro op would give you at least a couple sub-85 days in the next 10. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 I like this line of thundershowers all training into Klamath County from Red Bluff, CA. 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Could be different down here. Just had two top tier months in a row. Three probably has never happened before. 2014 or 2015 definitely did it at some point. July-October 2014 or basically the whole year in 2015. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I like this line of thundershowers all training into Klamath County from Red Bluff, CA. Hopefully it brings plentiful rain. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: At face value, almost everything other than the Euro op would give you at least a couple sub-85 days in the next 10. Alas, the Euro is the model with which we compare others to. I expect the 12z GFS will be significantly warmer again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: HRRR smoke model is pretty good https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ Current image shows the smoke mixing in a bit on the westside Tomorrow will probably be the smokiest day of the year so far for Western OR as more gets mixed in. Not terrible yet but will be increasingly noticeable. That would make sense from what I saw last night, I meant to snag a picture at the half or after the game, but I injured my hand during the first half trying to stop a shot, so it slipped my mind. It wasn't a ton of smoke, but there was a definite brown haze in the air. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: 2014 or 2015 definitely did it at some point. July-October 2014 or basically the whole year in 2015. Aug 2015 was a complete turnaround from the 2 before at only +0.8 anomaly. But that could have been an isolated factoid. Even Aug 2014 was not statistically hot in K-Falls. Oct 2014 had some warm days but featured a healthy amount of rainfall regionally. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: That would make sense from what I saw last night, I meant to snag a picture at the half or after the game, but I injured my hand during the first half trying to stop a shot, so it slipped my mind. It wasn't a ton of smoke, but there was a definite brown haze in the air. Definitely could see the haze obscuring the mountains a bit yesterday down here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 12Z GFS looks much weaker with the troughing early next week compared to the last few runs. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Low of 58 this morning in Tacoma. Looks like they’re on the edge of the Marine layer this morning but we’re socked in and foggy here on the island. Heck of a sunset and moonrise last night too. Had to come up to Seattle today. Foggy at my place when I left at 7:30 but sunny at Cheney stadium. Definitely right on the edge of the marine layer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Looking more likely this weekend turns thundery. Certainly over the cascades and east but possibly west side too. Might keep a lid on heat potential 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Let's put things in perspective: We had the driest spring on record by a large margin. Our all-time high temperature was shattered last month by a large margin and was broken on 3 consecutive days. June was the warmest of all-time. 43 out of the past 56 days encompassing all of June and July have been warmer than normal. July will be one of the warmest on record. August will begin very warm. We are in the midst of one of the longest dry spells in history. There is no other way to spin this other than it being historically warm and dry. To top it off, there is endless warmth and drought for the foreseeable future. This is all for PDX specifically, but region-wide, the bigger picture is the same. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Alas, the Euro is the model with which we compare others to. I expect the 12z GFS will be significantly warmer again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 UGLY Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Trough gets close in about 2 weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 41 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Let's put things in perspective: We had the driest spring on record by a large margin. Our all-time high temperature was shattered last month by a large margin and was broken on 3 consecutive days. June was the warmest of all-time. 43 out of the past 56 days encompassing all of June and July have been warmer than normal. July will be one of the warmest on record. August will begin very warm. We are in the midst of one of the longest dry spells in history. There is no other way to spin this other than it being historically warm and dry. To top it off, there is endless warmth and drought for the foreseeable future. This is all for PDX specifically, but region-wide, the bigger picture is the same. You forgot about the Sunday curse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 For the first half of the year... Sunday was comically cursed in the Seattle area in an otherwise sunny, dry late winter, spring. and early summer. June 13th was the last day of that curse when once again Sunday was the rainiest and cloudiest day of the week. It was just a statistical anomaly. I looked back at local records and it rained on just about 80% of Sundays from the beginning of the year through the middle of June. But it was not unusually wet in that period overall. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: You forgot about the Sunday curse Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 27, 2021 Report Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse? See above. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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