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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Sunday curse?

 

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

It was a noticeable statistical anomaly.    And its really fun to trigger you.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There were a couple Sundays over the spring where we fell a little short of the expected 10+ degrees above average with blazing sunshine from dawn until dusk. I’m still talking it over with my therapist.

Haha. I see.

Tim, let's see your statistics.

I would say that we have been in the Sunday-Saturday curse since February. See my statistics above.

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Haha. I see.

Tim, let's see your statistics.

I would say that we have been in the Sunday-Saturday curse since February. See my statistics above.

Yes... I did not dispute your statistics.   And of course its been different down there.   As usual.   

Its just a funny little quirk that Sunday was by far the most favored day for rain up here during the first half of the year.   I probably would not have noticed it had it been a Wednesday.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I recall some isolated +300-400% precip values in Aug 2014 down here. If it's going to be anything like that month there were no dry storms I can remember in the second half of that summer.

Hey, it's better than 31 more days of RH under 10 and 90+ degree highs... 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a noticeable statistical anomaly.    And its really fun to trigger you.   😀

Looks like all King County stations are now below average for precip YTD 😀

Looks like at least a half foot deficit at Cedar Lake as the water levels drop amidst a historically dry spring/summer there (0.02" MTD) 😀😀

Looks like 2/3 of the last year has now been dry there 

😀😀😀😀😀

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like all King County stations are now below average for precip YTD 😀

Looks like at least a half foot deficit at Cedar Lake as the water levels drop amidst a historically dry spring/summer there (0.02" MTD) 😀😀

Looks like 2/3 of the last year has now been dry there 

😀😀😀😀😀

Yes... its been dry lately!    Let me know where I have said otherwise.   Its been a very sunny year overall and its been extremely dry since the middle of June.  

And guess what... Sunday was still the rainiest day of the week during the first half of the year with rain on almost 80% of Sundays through mid June.   

Both are true.    

I did not bring the Sunday curse today... but it did actually happen!  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

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The bottom line is that drought has now reached the Central Sound, aka the Genuine NW

Entire Central Sound is now a piss yellow color on the drought map, soon to be replaced by a jarringly bright orange.

We can now officially be placed on notice, as SEA rallies towards its dry streak record and east county (region) yuppies fight the urge to curb sprinkler usage on their gluttonously landscaped yards.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The bottom line is that drought has now reached the Central Sound, aka the Genuine NW

Entire Central Sound is now a piss yellow color on the drought map, soon to be replaced by a jarringly bright orange.

We can now officially be placed on notice, as SEA rallies towards its dry streak record and east county (region) yuppies fight the urge to curb sprinkler usage on their gluttonously landscaped yards.

 

 

So silly.    I have been completely on your side in the debate about this summer.    It's been quite unusual and not what I expected at all.    Show me where I am arguing that it's been cool and wet.  😀

Still not too worried though... nature always makes it up around here.    It will probably be a very wet fall.    But not down there of course.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

So silly.    I have been completely on your side in the debate about this summer.    It's been quite unusual and not what I expected at all.    So where I am arguing that it's been cool and wet.  😀

Still not too worried though... nature always makes it up around here.    It will probably be a very wet fall.    But not down there of course.  

I think it'll be "made up" with another wet and mild winter, as our rainy season continues to condense year after year and we Mediterreanize more and more.

Slowly but surely we are becoming Ukiah, CA. And they are becoming Temecula, CA. Cedar Lake is the new Shasta Lake.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think it'll be "made up" with another wet and mild winter, as our rainy season continues to condense year after year and we Mediterreanize more and more.

Slowly but surely we are becoming Ukiah, CA. And they are becoming Temecula, CA. Cedar Lake is the new Shasta Lake.

Oh well... let me know when you figure out a way to change it.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I know that it may mean the ridge getting pumped up over the west coast but we could really use a break from the unrelenting heat and smoke out here in the interior with the last below average day coming on June 21st. Yes, over a month ago and counting.

Monsoonal moisture is pushing back into the area again this week along with cooler temps fortunately. If the models continue to trend like they have been we may see some actual NW flow with *gasp* some below average temps next week!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh well... let me know when you figure out a way to change it.  

There's probably nothing that will change it in any of our lifetimes. We just have to be honest about the fact that it is in fact happening. Saying stuff like "nature always finds a way to make up for it here" sorts of contradicts that notion. Obviously if that were true then we'd be seeing some 1954 on steroids summer weather right about now.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

There's probably nothing that will change it in any of our lifetimes. We just have to be honest about the fact that it is in fact happening. Saying stuff like "nature finds a way to make up for it" sorts of contradicts that notion. Obviously if that were true then we'd be seeing some 1954 on steroids summer weather right about now.

Nature still finds a way to make it up around here.   We just came off a year with 120 inches of precipitation at Cedar Lake in 2020.    And we had a very healthy snowpack this spring.     And there can easily be a wet, cool stretch of years even within a long term warming trend.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough verified about 500 miles NW of us and is about to pump up our next heat event.

Already looking way hotter on Friday and Saturday than the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Already looking way hotter on Friday and Saturday than the GFS.

At least we can easily blow away July 2015 and put that argument to rest...Oh wait then we can hear, "If not for the end of month blast furnace, July would have only been as hot as 2018!"

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature still finds a way to make it up around here.   We just came off a year with 120 inches of precipitation at Cedar Lake in 2020.    And we had a very healthy snowpack this spring.     And there can easily be a wet, cool stretch of years even within a long term warming trend.   

When was the last climatologically significant cool and wet spring or summer in the region? 2012 was the last cool one, and it was obviously pretty far from historically significant. And if you can't see how the notion of that being "made up" for with 9+ years of hot and dry makes little sense from a standpoint of things being balanced, then I don't know what to tell you. 

Things aren't remotely close to balanced and they won't be going forward either. It is what it is. 

 

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Going by the current NWS forecast (Not as hot as the EURO), SLE will blow 2015 away by about 0.5F. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

When was the last climatologically significant cool and wet spring or summer in the region? 2012 was the last cool one, and it was obviously pretty far from historically significant. And if you can't see how the notion of that being "made up" for with 9+ years of hot and dry makes little sense from a standpoint of things being balanced, then I don't know what to tell you. 

Things aren't remotely close to balanced and they won't be going forward either. It is what it is. 

 

Yeah... obviously things happen over a much longer timescale and we can't see that yet and are only basing it on what has happened recently.  Maybe that cool, wet stretch starts in 5 years and runs for a decade.  Who knows?  Its not when you want it to happen... but climate change is not normally a linear line upward or downward. It's not the way it works.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... obviously things happen over a much longer timescale and you can't see that yet and are only basing it on what had happened recently.  Maybe that cool, wet stretch starts in 5 years and runs for a decade.   Its not when you want it to happen... but climate change is not normally a linear line upward or downward. It's not the way works.

It's hard to imagine something like 2012 happening. Would be great if it did, but it's like December 1990, we might remember it as the last of its kind. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

 

Man, the weekend could be ugly in Central Oregon. Lots of lightning around and very little precip. Unless I'm not reading this right, in which case please ignore this clueless Canadian.

org.png

org2.png

Yes, it's pretty close to a worst case scenario. At least some runs have flirted with giving the eastside of the mountains some decent rain with a little storm complex as the heat dome shifts inland. T

Looks like the warmth, dryness, and ridging won't be going anywhere on the Euro in the long range either, after a brief marine push down to around average this coming weekend.

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49 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Time to buckle up for the Euro. Any bets on how many hundreds of miles offshore it stalls the next trough?

Keep in mind ten days ago there were runs that showed troughing over us now. That trough is now about 500 miles NW of us and about to pump up our next heat event.

Well, looks like we're back up to the mid-90s by the middle of next week after an impressive two day break of average temperatures. That's after 5 days of 90+ including two days at or above 100. 

Our summers sure are lovely here.

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's hard to imagine something like 2012 happening. Would be great if it did, but it's like December 1990, we might remember it as the last of its kind. 

I think something like 2012 may very well be possible today, but I do strongly doubt that another summer month like July 1993 or August 1976 could happen nowadays. It's been a pretty dramatic shift the past few decades.

It's very possible that in our new baseline, the July 2016s and July 2019s simply are the new "balancing" months where we stay fairly agreeable overall but things are still warm from a historic standpoint. That's about as low as we go and then the 2015s and 2021s are the other side of the coin.

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Just now, Jesse said:

So many fun and interesting paths to the same end result, historic heat and crippling drought.

Melodrama aside, there’s a ton of potential out there for something ridiculously anomalous.  Chances are lightning won’t strike twice in the same summer…

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Melodrama aside, there’s a ton of potential out there for something ridiculously anomalous.  Chances are lightning won’t strike twice in the same summer…

The weather itself has been melodramatic, so yeah simply talking about what has happened seems pretty hyperbolic. 

Hope we hit 110+ again! 🙏🏿 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The weather itself has been melodramatic, so yeah simply talking about what has happened seems pretty hyperbolic. 

Hope we hit 110+ again! 🙏🏿 

My apologies for just wanting to talk about the meteorological points of it. I’ll try to be more apocalyptic moving forward.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Melodrama aside, there’s a ton of potential out there for something ridiculously anomalous.  Chances are lightning won’t strike twice in the same summer…

Ridiculously anomalous as in more high end heat for us? Very possible, although I do suspect that we have a finite cap on what we're capable of this week. 103 is small potatoes now.

Otherwise the pattern going forward looks to be a basic continuation of the stable pattern that we've more or less seen since June 20. Not otherwise sensing anything noteworthy in the pipeline,

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27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My apologies for just wanting to talk about the meteorological points of it. I’ll try to be more apocalyptic moving forward.  

There has been plenty of meteorological analysis this morning, it just doesn’t happen to be in your preferred flavor of embracing any and all sun and warmth no matter how destructive it is.

We all know who’s really good at that here, and that’s why he consistently gets a free pass from you. 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Ridiculously anomalous as in more high end heat for us? Very possible, although I do suspect that we have a finite cap on what we're capable of this week. 103 is small potatoes now.

Otherwise the pattern going forward looks to be a basic continuation of the stable pattern that we've more or less seen since June 20. Not otherwise sensing anything noteworthy in the pipeline,

I think Matt has been dipping into Jim’s candy 🍭 stash the last few days.

Impressive August jet at hour 377 of the 06z Euro!

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SLE somehow running above yesterday at this time...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think Matt has been dipping into Jim’s candy 🍭 stash the last few days.

Impressive August jet at hour 377 of the 06z Euro!

Definitely a bit of wishful thinking to speculate that a synoptic scale shakeup of any sort is really in the pipeline for us. Would love to be wrong of course.

I think the monotony of recent conditions has most of us a little more exuberant than usual at the prospect of anything different at all. But the reality is that it looks like par for the recent course going forward. Mundane on a level but mostly just really warm and dry. 

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