July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[FroYoBro]

12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There has been plenty of meteorological analysis this morning, it just doesn’t happen to be in your preferred flavor of embracing any and all sun and warmth no matter how destructive it is.

Dude, you have kind of gone off the deep end over the last few months. 
 

Yes, our climate is warming, but you are letting it completely take over your personality. Lots of weird aggressive comments (inaccurately attacking people as if they are wishing for more heat) that are starting to get old. 
 

I know the weather has sucked and it isn’t healthy for our area, but I really do hope you aren’t getting too negative in other parts of your life because of it. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think Matt has been dipping into Jim’s candy stash the last few days.

Impressive August jet at hour 377 of the 06z Euro!

My point is that there is a lot of high end potential/amplification with the pattern in the 7-14 day range. The models are hinting pretty hard at it after a month of a very narrow range of pretty traditional 4CH fluctuations.

I know you and your idol have each other all worked up, but it is something worth discussing. 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Dude, you have kind of gone off the deep end over the last few months. 
 

Yes, our climate is warming, but you are letting it completely take over your personality. Lots of weird aggressive comments (inaccurately attacking people as if they are wishing for more heat) that are starting to get old. 
 

I know the weather has sucked and it isn’t healthy for our area, but I really do hope you aren’t getting too negative in other parts of your life because of it. 

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My point is that there is a lot of high end potential/amplification with the pattern in the 7-14 day range. The models are hinting pretty hard at it after a month of a very narrow range of pretty traditional 4CH fluctuations.

I know you and your idol have each other all worked up, but it is something worth discussing. 

I'm not sure that there's any coherent signal for major amplification going forward. The GEFS for example doesn't show anything substantial at all in that timeframe.

Just looks like a very broad 4CH setup, which again, is more or less a continuation of what we've already seen the last five weeks.

If anything "ridiculously" anomalous is to occur then it'll be more of the high end heat variety, but like you said yourself the odds of us even approaching what we saw a month ago are still tiny.

Otherwise the most anomalous aspect of the recent and ongoing pattern is the persistence. And that too will probably continue to be the story moving forward. 

[Jesse]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My point is that there is a lot of high end potential/amplification with the pattern in the 7-14 day range. The models are hinting pretty hard at it after a month of a very narrow range of pretty traditional 4CH fluctuations.

I know you and your idol have each other all worked up, but it is something worth discussing. 

Fair. I was going to comment yesterday that you have made a definite move toward more weather related content lately. I’m not complaining.

Another major heat event would really suck on multiple levels. Kind of goes without saying. That said I’m not seeing anything too striking on the models aside from the odd Euro op run at day 10.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm not sure that there's any coherent signal for major amplification going forward. The GEFS for example doesn't show anything substantial at all in that timeframe.

Just looks like a very broad 4CH setup, which again, is more or less a continuation of what we've already seen the last five weeks.

If anything "ridiculously" anomalous is to occur then it'll be more of the high end heat variety, but like you said yourself the odds of us even approaching what we saw a month ago are still tiny.

Otherwise the most anomalous aspect of the recent and ongoing pattern is the persistence. And that too will probably continue to be the story moving forward. 

Eh, I think you might be sitting on a little recency bias. Feels like a pattern shake up is in order after a pretty long stretch of mundanity, even by July standards. Even this week’s heat is a pretty pedestrian pattern overall. If we’re able to hit triple digits with it it’ll be pretty remarkable.

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 74 now. 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

Just for the sake of accuracy, I think you have and continue to do this like all the time.

We all so silly stuff…

[Jesse]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eh, I think you might be sitting on a little recency bias. Feels like a pattern shake up is in order after a pretty long stretch of mundanity, even by July standards. Even this week’s heat is a pretty pedestrian pattern overall. If we’re able to hit triple digits with it it’ll be pretty remarkable.

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

I don’t understand how it can be considered a pattern shake up when it’s the same net result, more heat.

90% of the western US has been sitting in some form of heatwave for the better part of a month now. Hotter here would simply take an expansion of the current pattern, which looks to happen later this week.

A pattern shake up would be western troughing in some form.

 

[James Jones]

56 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think something like 2012 may very well be possible today, but I do strongly doubt that another summer month like July 1993 or August 1976 could happen nowadays. It's been a pretty dramatic shift the past few decades.

It's very possible that in our new baseline, the July 2016s and July 2019s simply are the new "balancing" months where we stay fairly agreeable overall but things are still warm from a historic standpoint. That's about as low as we go and then the 2015s and 2021s are the other side of the coin.

Junes 2010-2012 were fairly impressive and July 2011 was solidly cool, so I have hope that we could see something better than July 2016 again. Of course the longer we go without a legitimately cool summer month the less likely it is to happen again.

August is a different story though. The last time we saw one that was below the 20th century average was back in 2000 and that was only by a couple tenths of a degree. Certainly possible we won't see another one with a sub 80 average high at PDX again in our lifetimes. 

[Jesse]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

 

[Jesse]

12z EPS 500mb mean on the left, op on the right. Hour 240:

 

 

Some slight differences...

[TacomaWaWx]

Our average temp for the month went all the way down to +0.5 on 7/22…up to +1.0 through yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS loop...

[FroYoBro]

31 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

My bad, I was probably reading into things too much. Just a lot of negativity, lol. 

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Weird post. If anything I have been more toned down and posting less than usual considering the horrible weather. And using posting patterns here to read into someone’s personal life is kind of silly.

You literally do this all the time... and you are the worst offender.    See how silly it seems when you are on the receiving end?   

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

My bad, I was probably reading into things too much. Just a lot of negativity, lol. 

It’s all good. I think people will see a lot of complaining about the heat and rainlessness and just associate it all with me, even if I’m not logged in.

That said, I definitely haven’t been happy with the weather this summer, but that can be said about most summers recently. 

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eh, I think you might be sitting on a little recency bias. Feels like a pattern shake up is in order after a pretty long stretch of mundanity, even by July standards. Even this week’s heat is a pretty pedestrian pattern overall. If we’re able to hit triple digits with it it’ll be pretty remarkable.

As for the GEFS, I’d guess the mean is pretty noisy at the moment.

I feel like you're projecting your eagerness for change here. 

From a climo standpoint a shakeup would certainly stand to reason after such a prolonged stretch of regional monotony. I'm just not finding much concrete pointing in that way at the moment. I think the referenced ensemble noise is mostly a testament to the fact that we're seeing a pretty typical lack of a major week 2 signal at the moment, but there do seem to be plenty of indications that the 4CH will remain in control and largely just continue to waffle around.

And I'm far from an MJO expert but the little wave entering phase 7/8 at the moment (late June territory) doesn't give me a lot of confidence in any impetus for a forcing shakeup either.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I feel like you're projecting your eagerness for change here. 

From a climo standpoint a shakeup would certainly stand to reason after such a prolonged stretch of regional monotony. I'm just not finding much concrete pointing in that way at the moment. I think the referenced ensemble noise is mostly a testament to the fact that we're seeing a pretty typical lack of a major week 2 signal at the moment, but there do seem to be plenty of indications that the 4CH will remain in control and largely just continue to waffle around.

And I'm far from an MJO expert but the little wave entering phase 7/8 at the moment (late June territory) doesn't give me a lot of confidence in any impetus for a forcing shakeup either.

You also don't see Phil and Jim on here screaming about a massive pattern change and amazing cold coming.  

[Timmy Supercell]

It's rained for the last 6 hours non stop. The longest duration of precip in several months. I think April 24th but could have been before that.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Junes 2010-2012 were fairly impressive and July 2011 was solidly cool, so I have hope that we could see something better than July 2016 again. Of course the longer we go without a legitimately cool summer month the less likely it is to happen again.

August is a different story though. The last time we saw one that was below the 20th century average was back in 2000 and that was only by a couple tenths of a degree. Certainly possible we won't see another one with a sub 80 average high at PDX again in our lifetimes. 

Careful there, Jared is likely lurking close at hand ready to rattle off his list of "cold" 21st century Augusts.

[Kayla]

Instead of the mean trough position sitting just offshore to sitting 1000 miles offshore seems like a pattern shakeup to me. Net result is much cooler and possibly wetter for the interior NW regions which would definitely be pattern shakeup.

Obviously said pattern would bring more heat along the coast which I can understand doesn’t feel like a pattern change to some. Which brings us back to location, location location…

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You also don't see Phil and Jim on here screaming about a massive pattern change and amazing cold coming.  

Phil is too busy enjoying his coolish summer to care about trolling you this year.

Couple warm days this week then back to more extremely pleasant Mid Atlantic summer weather with troughing overhead.

His summer of death certainly verified though. Just a couple thousand miles west of where he thought. No biggie. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Instead of the mean trough position sitting just offshore to sitting 1000 miles offshore seems like a pattern shakeup to me. Net result is much cooler and possibly wetter for the interior NW regions which would definitely be pattern shakeup.

Obviously said pattern would bring more heat along the coast which I can understand doesn’t feel like a pattern change to some. Which brings us back to location, location location…

Exactly... there could be a major pattern change in the big picture that just happens to result in more of the same here.   But it still could be considered a major pattern change.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It's rained for the last 6 hours non stop. The longest duration of precip in several months. I think April 24th but could have been earlier than that.

Atleast it’s raining somewhere out west. 

[Timmy Supercell]

List of 90+ degree highs since the late 90's. I didn't even realize last year had 34 which beats most of the list.

2021 - 37 (thru July 27)
2020 - 34
2019 - 11
2018 - 28
2017 - 38
2016 - 22
2015 - 25
2014 - 27
2013 - 21
2012 - 15
2011 - 4
2010 - 13
2009 - 21
2008 - 11
2007 - 10
2006 - 15
2005 - 13
2004 - 10
2003 - 21
2002 - 13
2001 - 14
2000 - 8
1999 - 12
1998 - 31

A site I like to use isn't pulling data from 1997 and earlier for KLMT. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

List of 90+ degree highs since the late 90's. I didn't even realize last year had 28 which beats most of the list.

2021 - 37 (thru July 27)
2020 - 34
2019 - 11
2018 - 28
2017 - 38
2016 - 22
2015 - 25
2014 - 27
2013 - 21
2012 - 15
2011 - 4
2010 - 13
2009 - 21
2008 - 11
2007 - 10
2006 - 15
2005 - 13
2004 - 10
2003 - 21
2002 - 13
2001 - 14
2000 - 8
1999 - 12
1998 - 31

A site I like to use isn't pulling data from 1997 and earlier for KLMT. 

Still making up for 2011. 

[Jesse]

26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

12z EPS 500mb mean on the left, op on the right. Hour 240:

 

 

Some slight differences...

For the record, neither the 12z EPS mean nor the Euro operational are showing a pattern shake up with troughing inland and more heat near the coast at day 10. That’s just a different flavor of a roided up 4CH driven western heat pattern, still centered inland with troughing offshore on the EPS and operational.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

For the record, neither the 12z EPS mean nor the Euro operational are showing a pattern shake up with troughing inland and more heat near the coast at day 10. That’s just a different flavor of a roided up 4CH driven western heat pattern, still centered inland with troughing offshore on the EPS and operational.

Phil says we have had a lot of troughing.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Wow. 

Looks way more impressive than it actually is. K-Falls has picked up a whopping 0.07" today.

[James Jones]

23 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It's rained for the last 6 hours non stop. The longest duration of precip in several months. I think April 24th but could have been before that.

Hopefully some of that is falling over the Bootleg fire.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks way more impressive than it actually is. K-Falls has picked up a whopping 0.07" today.

Airport can be a dry spot at times. I'll check some of the cocorahs sites within a couple miles of my house, they might have gotten more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 85 at SLE. Pretty good shot at 90 again. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

I feel like you're projecting your eagerness for change here. 

From a climo standpoint a shakeup would certainly stand to reason after such a prolonged stretch of regional monotony. I'm just not finding much concrete pointing in that way at the moment. I think the referenced ensemble noise is mostly a testament to the fact that we're seeing a pretty typical lack of a major week 2 signal at the moment, but there do seem to be plenty of indications that the 4CH will remain in control and largely just continue to waffle around.

And I'm far from an MJO expert but the little wave entering phase 7/8 at the moment (late June territory) doesn't give me a lot of confidence in any impetus for a forcing shakeup either.

Sure, I’d like to see a pattern change, although I think part of it would probably yield another round of west coast heat. My biggest bias at the moment is probably the fact I’ve been thinking we’d see a significant heatwave at some point in August (not exactly a stretch there…)

We’ll see where it goes from here…

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Up to 85 at SLE. Pretty good shot at 90 again. 

[TT-SEA]

83 here despite the high clouds attempt to destroy this day.   

That was sarcasm.  

[Timmy Supercell]

It has gotten heavier over the last hour. Sump pump has gone on twice even.

[Cloud]

Today is #42 for the dry streak at SEA,  tied for 5th all time from 1986 and we've now entered the driest stretch of the  year.

Next up is #45 from 1991-09/01-10/15. 

1991 was an incredible record considering how late into the calendar year this dry streak took place. 

After that, I can see the all-time mark falling. 

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today is #42 for the dry streak at SEA,  tied for 5th all time from 1986 and we've now entered the driest stretch of the  year.

Next up is #45 from 1991-09/01-10/15. 

1991 was an incredible record considering how late into the calendar year this dry streak took place. 

After that, I can see the all-time mark falling. 

How long is the all-time record?

EDIT: 55 days from 2017, right?