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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Sun is finally out. And a cool-ish breeze still coming in the house.

Sure today isn't Sep 28th and I didn't just have a 2 month long coma?? 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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No more dry Oct/Nov couplets next few years. Pineapples and windstorms this Fall!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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59 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It sure is. Our only temps not well above average would be the middle of next week. Back to 100 by next weekend. 

If it verifies, North Dakota and Minnesota are going to be setting some records in about 12 days. 

Clown range is just that, but the 12z GFS is on its own with the evolution days 8-10. Euro, GEFS, and previous GFS runs all show much more of a cooldown.

A forum for the end of the world.

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24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Clown range is just that, but the 12z GFS is on its own with the evolution days 8-10. Euro, GEFS, and previous GFS runs all show much more of a cooldown.

If I had to guess we will go to a more normal pattern after the warm up and then transition into another warm period later in august. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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And another one!!! Up to 90F!!!

30CA673D-313A-438F-98CA-E5D81C113E71.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Dewey has patented this type of forecast.

Seems like a likely projection in all seriousness…warm up…then flip back into the pattern we’ve been in than warm up again. Warm ups and cool downs. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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SLE already up to 93. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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NWS going with 101 at SLE the next TWO DAYS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS going with 101 at SLE the next TWO DAYS. 

Remember when triple digits were a 1-in-5 year thing for the Willamette Valley and a 1-in-30 year thing for the Puget Sound?

I *vaguely* do

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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87 here and 88 in North Bend... but does not feel that hot out there.   I think I have become conditioned to warm weather.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was going to go to the Mowich area of MRNP, but I was looking at my notes and realized I had not hiked on the east side in 10 years!  Wow time flies. So I spent some time at Sunrise and did a hike up to the Fremont Lookout and Burroughs Mountain.  It was beautiful, and not a lot of people.  In fact there was nobody else at the lookout.

222704330_10224792359229941_1779822667888047540_n.jpg

219746134_10224792359589950_4544542615702334137_n.jpg

218311773_10224792368950184_331074458011909705_n.jpg

222628477_10224792362390020_2229639635127758694_n.jpg

221920050_10224792353069787_1427185731075761112_n.jpg

Nice pics... and pretty much smoke-free.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the 12Z Canadian smoke model showed some smoke aloft and at ground level sneaking into western WA by Saturday morning with southerly flow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

87 here and 88 in North Bend... but does not feel that hot out there.   I think I have become conditioned to warm weather.  

85 here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Remember when triple digits were a 1-in-5 year thing for the Willamette Valley and a 1-in-30 year thing for the Puget Sound?

I *vaguely* do

1 in 30 is probably about right for most of the Puget Sound (depends of course on how close to the water the exact location is) but for the Willamette Valley 100+ has occurred in probably 50-60% of years since the mid 1920s. In PDX's 81 year period of record only 35 of those years went without a triple digit day, so 57% of years have hit 100. It's a different story before that though, from 1874 (the first year of records for downtown Portland) through 1903 there was a grand total of one 100+ day in that 30 year period.

The warming in the last 90ish years has been mostly from a decline in the number of cool, troughy days, declining influence of the marine layer, and an increase in the number of days in the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Though who knows, perhaps this year is an ominous warning sign of an increase in the number of days with extreme heat.

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20 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was going to go to the Mowich area of MRNP, but I was looking at my notes and realized I had not hiked on the east side in 10 years!  Wow time flies. So I spent some time at Sunrise and did a hike up to the Fremont Lookout and Burroughs Mountain.  It was beautiful, and not a lot of people.  In fact there was nobody else at the lookout.

222704330_10224792359229941_1779822667888047540_n.jpg

219746134_10224792359589950_4544542615702334137_n.jpg

218311773_10224792368950184_331074458011909705_n.jpg

222628477_10224792362390020_2229639635127758694_n.jpg

221920050_10224792353069787_1427185731075761112_n.jpg

Did Mr. Marmot come visit you on the 1st Burroughs? Awesome picks in a magical place ! 

8BA3ADF1-7FC6-42B9-B778-ED9F7E0A4EB2.jpeg

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29 minutes ago, James Jones said:

1 in 30 is probably about right for most of the Puget Sound (depends of course on how close to the water the exact location is) but for the Willamette Valley 100+ has occurred in probably 50-60% of years since the mid 1920s. In PDX's 81 year period of record only 35 of those years went without a triple digit day, so 57% of years have hit 100. It's a different story before that though, from 1874 (the first year of records for downtown Portland) through 1903 there was a grand total of one 100+ day in that 30 year period.

The warming in the last 90ish years has been mostly from a decline in the number of cool, troughy days, declining influence of the marine layer, and an increase in the number of days in the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Though who knows, perhaps this year is an ominous warning sign of an increase in the number of days with extreme heat.

That's actually pretty interesting... thanks for the insight

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Only one marmot...and a mountain goat, and a sundog AND my watermark all in one photo?!

222628491_297657481996453_7893903297359625050_n.jpg

Now that's showing off! Nice one. :P

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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