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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lots of smoke trapped in the SE BC valleys this morning.

Otherwise, looks mostly clear in Western WA with some clouds and smoke hanging around Western/Central OR.

1892177072_COD-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest.truecolor.20210730.153617-overmap-bars.gif

We have really lucked out here.  The SW flow aloft has kept all of the clouds and gunk just to the south and east of us.  We're obviously in a bit of an inversion today.  It could be a lot hotter given the 850s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week.  The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA.  850s drop well below normal as well.  We'll see where it goes from there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly.

I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks amazing for BC and Washington. 

Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. 

Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. 

I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had.

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. 

I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had.

I definitely understand that and it is more in line with climo for systems to be up north in BC this time of year…so it wouldn’t be surprising if it ended up further north than currently progged. I’d be happy if we could squeeze 1/3-1/2 inch of rain total out of this pattern locally. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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82 degrees here at 1pm. We will see about hitting 90…some haze visible to the SE of here at work but still no clouds nearby for now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week.  The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA.  850s drop well below normal as well.  We'll see where it goes from there.

JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. 

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1 minute ago, Link said:

JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. 

We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. 

Thanks I needed a good laugh.  I am just expecting it to pull the rug a few days from now. 

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7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Too bad Robert didn't live to see it. RIP. At least they're continuing his site in his honor.

He would've frozen over and have no crops so it's probably better for him this way. A peaceful death instead of the other way instead of starving to death.

Never mind the grocery stores out of his region having supplies readily available (and always Amazon Prime) but in his area it's constant food panic and water wars and police kicking down doors constantly looking for handguns. :)  

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. 

Just weenies being weenies. 

Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just weenies being weenies. 

Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks.

Definitely true. It’s not totally silly to think we would go through most of august without rain with the history of recent summers… but things are looking good now hopefully it doesn’t fizzle on us. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains.

Definitely has been more anomalous in BC and OR than here in western WA. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Flatiron's 1 yard line dancing over some light rain will no doubt screw us. 

Right now we are on about the 50-yard line.    But a touchdown is guaranteed!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains.

Not sure about other stations but we will end up around +4. 
 

up to 93F currently 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Right now we are on about the 50-yard line.    But a touchdown is guaranteed!  

Yeah, I think it was Jesse who mentioned the similar setup at this point in 2018 on the models. That was forecast for days to be a big pattern shaker but the low just cut-off more and more and pumped up another prolonged heat event, before it kind of fizzled out entirely and eventually passed through harmlessly as little more than a 500mb impulse with some spotty drizzle. 

Climo sucks, especially now.

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Lightning west of Eugene

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SLE not going to come close to 100 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lightning west of Eugene

Lightning is not allowed within 10 miles of TWLs location so he must not be in town. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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87 in Tacoma currently matching yesterday’s max high temp. 90 is definitely possible. If any clouds make it here they won’t make it in time to impede the heating process most likely.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I think it was Jesse who mentioned the similar setup at this point in 2018 on the models. That was forecast for days to be a big pattern shaker but the low just cut-off more and more and pumped up another prolonged heat event, before it kind of fizzled out entirely and eventually passed through harmlessly as little more than a 500mb impulse with some spotty drizzle. 

Climo sucks, especially now.

This doesn’t have that feel.

It’s gonna rain.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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