TT-SEA Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 12Z EPS is on board with the trough over the PNW one week from today... optimism for meaningful rain is growing. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Lots of smoke trapped in the SE BC valleys this morning. Otherwise, looks mostly clear in Western WA with some clouds and smoke hanging around Western/Central OR. We have really lucked out here. The SW flow aloft has kept all of the clouds and gunk just to the south and east of us. We're obviously in a bit of an inversion today. It could be a lot hotter given the 850s. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total rain per 12Z ECMWF... well over an inch here. That would be pretty nice. "OMG that will be awful on the burned terrain." 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week. The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA. 850s drop well below normal as well. We'll see where it goes from there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS is on board with the trough over the PNW one week from today... optimism for meaningful rain is growing. Looks amazing for BC and Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly. I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 80 degrees here at 12:30PM. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Looks amazing for BC and Washington. Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Don't think SLE is going to hit their forecast high of 103 today. I knew today was going to be one of those HCS type of days. Need some better clearing/heating though to tap that mid level moisture convection later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Up to 89F here. It’s a hot one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had. I definitely understand that and it is more in line with climo for systems to be up north in BC this time of year…so it wouldn’t be surprising if it ended up further north than currently progged. I’d be happy if we could squeeze 1/3-1/2 inch of rain total out of this pattern locally. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 82 degrees here at 1pm. We will see about hitting 90…some haze visible to the SE of here at work but still no clouds nearby for now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Raining in Stayton and points east 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week. The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA. 850s drop well below normal as well. We'll see where it goes from there. JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Nice and overcast today. Not looking forward to another warm night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Link said: JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. Thanks I needed a good laugh. I am just expecting it to pull the rug a few days from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 7 hours ago, smerfylicious said: Too bad Robert didn't live to see it. RIP. At least they're continuing his site in his honor. He would've frozen over and have no crops so it's probably better for him this way. A peaceful death instead of the other way instead of starving to death. Never mind the grocery stores out of his region having supplies readily available (and always Amazon Prime) but in his area it's constant food panic and water wars and police kicking down doors constantly looking for handguns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. Just weenies being weenies. Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Up to 89F here. It’s a hot one Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Just weenies being weenies. Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks. Definitely true. It’s not totally silly to think we would go through most of august without rain with the history of recent summers… but things are looking good now hopefully it doesn’t fizzle on us. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains. Definitely has been more anomalous in BC and OR than here in western WA. 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Flatiron's 1 yard line dancing over some light rain will no doubt screw us. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Flatiron's 1 yard line dancing over some light rain will no doubt screw us. Right now we are on about the 50-yard line. But a touchdown is guaranteed! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains. Not sure about other stations but we will end up around +4. up to 93F currently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 90 and sunny here... a little bit of haze now as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Light showers moving north. STAY CALM! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Right now we are on about the 50-yard line. But a touchdown is guaranteed! Yeah, I think it was Jesse who mentioned the similar setup at this point in 2018 on the models. That was forecast for days to be a big pattern shaker but the low just cut-off more and more and pumped up another prolonged heat event, before it kind of fizzled out entirely and eventually passed through harmlessly as little more than a 500mb impulse with some spotty drizzle. Climo sucks, especially now. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 I wonder if there is thunder with that shower east of Salem. It has strengthened a bit and is actually heading this direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Is that verifiable rain on the radar? Shocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Woah..that’s an insane amount of subsidence over the WPAC starting week-2. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Looks like the radar is showing some possible rain for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Up to 88 here. Pretty breezy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 92 in North Bend... inversion holding strong. Another chilly day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 Lightning west of Eugene Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 SLE not going to come close to 100 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Lightning west of Eugene Lightning is not allowed within 10 miles of TWLs location so he must not be in town. 1 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 87 in Tacoma currently matching yesterday’s max high temp. 90 is definitely possible. If any clouds make it here they won’t make it in time to impede the heating process most likely. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 30, 2021 Report Share Posted July 30, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Yeah, I think it was Jesse who mentioned the similar setup at this point in 2018 on the models. That was forecast for days to be a big pattern shaker but the low just cut-off more and more and pumped up another prolonged heat event, before it kind of fizzled out entirely and eventually passed through harmlessly as little more than a 500mb impulse with some spotty drizzle. Climo sucks, especially now. This doesn’t have that feel. It’s gonna rain. 2 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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