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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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I'm actually kind of disappointed a few drops of rain spoiled our totally rainless month here.  Those are extremely rare.  Still only a trace though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe a brief cooldown next weekend, perhaps enough rain to wet the ground. Then warm air builds back in. 

Obviously anything that far out isn't etched in stone yet, but given the context this year another shot of warmth after the trough is more likely than not.  There has been indication that one will be short lived though.  At any rate the trough looks looks pretty decent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 hours ago, Phil said:

Woah..that’s an insane amount of subsidence over the WPAC starting week-2.

74ECB1DF-D375-4AD6-9ED7-44CA97D3191D.png

60030AC7-DA74-4D44-BDDE-1BD094422279.png

Positive (westerly)  200mb zonal wind anomalies are a very ninaish signal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously anything that far out isn't etched in stone yet, but given the context this year another shot of warmth after the trough is more likely than not.  There has been indication that one will be short lived though.  At any rate the trough looks looks pretty decent.

The long range is never "etched in stone" when it shows warm.   But when it shows cold... we talk about it like it's already happening.    It's all but guaranteed to happen.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The temperature hasn't budged here in the past 3 hours.  The clouds are really helping today.  Currently a comfortable 72.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just a trace of rainfall this morning with a low of 58F after a 84/53 day yesterday.

Also, didn't see if this was posted already, but a new fire started up in North Cascades National Park in the Chilliwack River drainage on Thursday. Cause hasn't officially been determined, but based on starting location and lack of lightning it was most likely human caused.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Positive (westerly)  200mb zonal wind anomalies are a very ninaish signal.

If only a nina meant anything good down this way...it means nothing for us this far south. Y'all will get another huge event again tho.

We will likely see our coldest temps sometime around late October like last year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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10 hours ago, Cloud said:

This was anticipated when they announced last October that many of the current ECMWF data and charts will become public for free. You gotta know an upgraded version is on the way.  If this is an indication on how accurate the parallel version is, subscribing to it will be worth it when it becomes available this fall. 

When the ECMWF upgrades, I trust that it will lead to better forecasts.  When the GFS upgrades, not so much. Glad it will be upgraded before winter.

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We will be going through Bozeman this afternoon heading east.  

Safe travels! Smoke isn’t too bad today (plenty of blue sky!) and looks to only improve throughout the weekend here.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Safe travels! Smoke isn’t too bad today (plenty of blue sky!) and looks to only improve throughout the weekend here.

In Missoula now... car thermometer says 91 and its smoky and brown.   :(

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So what happened with Monday's "outbreak?"

It'll be back soon ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Rain is approaching. About 78 degrees and overcast.

KMAX_loop.gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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We sure lucked out today.  850s still high enough for a quite hot day, but the thick clouds have us way lower than what was forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hopefully this trough can clear the air and tamp down the fires a bit, though with another big ridge looking to build in on the backside any relief on the fire/smoke front would be temporary.

At the very least it will be welcome to have a few days with coolish temps and some rain.

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Just a trace of rainfall this morning with a low of 58F after a 84/53 day yesterday.

Also, didn't see if this was posted already, but a new fire started up in North Cascades National Park in the Chilliwack River drainage on Thursday. Cause hasn't officially been determined, but based on starting location and lack of lightning it was most likely human caused.

It only dropped to 71 here, but it's only managed to rise about 1.5 degree so far since sunrise.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Hopefully this trough can clear the air and tamp down the fires a bit, though with another big ridge looking to build in on the backside any relief on the fire/smoke front would be temporary.

At the very least it will be welcome to have a few days with coolish temps and some rain.

I'll be interested to see how the possible ridge after the trough evolves in future model runs.  I'm hoping it will be shorter lived which could indicate this stuff is winding down.  No doubt the coming trough is going to cool things way down at least for several days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at the sat pic it appears the Puget Sound region is in the zone of heaviest cloud cover today with lots of clearing both east and west of us.  Nice chance for the house to cool down.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Still just 83F and cloudy. Maybe we can keep it under 90F!!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Rain totals bumped up on the latest euro run in Washington…but not much change down in Oregon. More in the cascades and Oregon coast range but willamette valley not much. 

56AA61FC-C9F3-47F4-9811-6257D0785DAC.jpeg

985EABBE-7D55-4338-A724-F96C9A5F6601.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Got up to 92 yesterday and only cooled down to 63 last night.  A few splatters on the windshield when I took my son to the farmer's market, but nothing more than that at this point.  I definitely wouldn't mind some rain today!

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Picked up over an inch here last night.

Good sign for up here as well. Monsoon has got some extra punch this year!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Safe travels! Smoke isn’t too bad today (plenty of blue sky!) and looks to only improve throughout the weekend here.

Much better in Butte... some haze but not bad.   And a little cooler. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS is far from sold on a return to warm ridging after the trough.  The PNA only goes very slightly positive after the trough on the mean.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Much better in Butte... some haze but not bad.   And a little cooler. 

Continental Divide! Storms building and moving in from the south here now as well.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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It's been 47 days IMBY without measurable rain.  Up until today there hadn't even been a trace since June 14.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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For those who think extreme summer dryness is something new for the NW...think again.  For the Puget Sound Lowlands out of the 10 driest Julys all but 2 were from 1960 or earlier.  As I've been saying overall dry conditions used to be more common, due to more influence from the Pacific High.  Here are the top 10 dry Julys for the Puget Sound Lowlands.

1. 1922 = 0.00"

2. 1958 = 0.01

3. 1960 = 0.01

4. 2013 = 0.03

5. 1896 = 0.04

6. 1930 = 0.05

7. 2017 = 0.05

8. 1914 = 0.06

9. 1926 = 0.06

10. 1910 = 0.12

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Trending cooler with the trough, as expected.

And no clear indication of a follow up ridge on the 500mb level progs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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