July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hard to believe we are heading into yet another 3-4 day run of heat after today. That escalated quickly.

Some dwindling rainfall chances at the end of that tunnel, but wouldn’t surprise me to lose that entirely at some point in the next 48-72 hours.

PDX will end July with one day of 95+ degree heat with none in sight at the moment. Horrific.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX will end July with one day of 95+ degree heat with none in sight at the moment. Horrific.

PDX will end July with 26 days above average and 5 below. Blissful. 

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Already planning on setting some time aside tomorrow to write up a post on all the record warm July's the region saw. 

Looks like EUG ended up with 18 90+ highs this month. SLE 16, one less than 2018. 

But the Sunday curse.

PDX got only 6 days 90+, but 14 days with highs between 86 and 89. No highs below 75. Just a super consistent warmer than average month.

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX will end July with one day of 95+ degree heat with none in sight at the moment. Horrific.

Following our driest spring on record. Our warmest June on record. Our hottest heat wave/temps on record and now rounding out our 3rd or 4th warmest July on record. It has indeed been pretty horrific, especially for someone who works outdoors and sees the affects on our landscape firsthand every day. I'm sorry that opinion bothers you so much but 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX will end July with 26 days above average and 5 below. Blissful. 

It’s been a solidly warm month. Exceptional, even. But it’s been far from oppressive.

[Jesse]

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX will end July with 26 days above average and 5 below. Blissful. 

Some here expect that everyone have a completely zen attitude with regard to any and all weather patterns, unless of course it’s cooler and wetter than average for a few days + in which case it’s totally acceptable to completely freak the f*ck out.

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a solidly warm month. Exceptional, even. But it’s been far from oppressive.

I said nothing about oppressiveness. Just being astounded at the continued warmth and skeptical of rainfall chances that are being continuously pushed back at the back end of it. I know that doesn’t fit the all important this is actually perfect summer weather just learn to love it narrative, which of course immediately puts me in the line of fire.

 

 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

But the Sunday curse.

PDX got only 6 days 90+, but 14 days with highs between 86 and 89. No highs below 75. Just a super consistent warmer than average month.

Today’s HCS meant 2021 couldn’t quite move into 2nd place on its own when it comes to 85+ days behind 1985’s amazing 25.  It’ll sit tied with 2009 and 2018 with 20.

[Cloud]

Midnight high when it was 79F! Got up to 73 or 74, so a solidly cool day. A bit on the muggy side though. 

Also, the precip today didn't really amount to much at SEA.... just a trace, so the streak lives on. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I said nothing about oppressiveness. Just being astounded at the continued warmth and skeptical of rainfall chances that are being continuously pushed back at the back end of it. I know that doesn’t fit the all important this is actually perfect summer weather just learn to love it narrative, which of course immediately puts me in the line of fire.

 

 

Point is, it could have been a lot worse. We’ve seen worse lately and a good part of this month had some nice diurnal cycles with decent onshore flow.

And putting aside the more acceptable persistence pessimism, the setup later next week is still pretty promising, especially with the unusual rex block helping things out. Mid summer climo doesn’t help, but might as well be positive!

[Cloud]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

Only about 9 or 10 degrees off the mark today. Unless you take the midnight high into account then it's a lot closer to 83F. 

[Omegaraptor]

Sky water!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Another thunderstorm approaching. Some deep rumbling. It's kind of frequent too.

[Winterdog]

74 for a high and cloudy all day with no precip.  Still muggy but quite nice for a change.  Ended July with .03" of precip,  I think we've seen the worst of our summer and we will now start coasting into autumn.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, Acer said:

74 for a high and cloudy all day with no precip.  Still muggy but quite nice for a change.  Ended July with .03" of precip,  I think we've seen the worst of our summer and we will now start coasting into autumn.

That’d be interesting but I doubt it. Lots of time left this summer. 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’d be interesting but I doubt it. Lots of time left this summer. 

You don't think we've seen the worst of summer?  Worst being heat.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

You don't think we've seen the worst of summer?  Worst being heat.

Yup, *probably* won’t smash all-time record highs by close to ten degrees again.

#summersover

[SouthHillFrosty]

AQI is back to 175 in Quincy. Was previously 300+. Wind is doing miracles

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah maybe one more 100 degree high but the worst is over. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Acer said:

You don't think we've seen the worst of summer?  Worst being heat.

Oh definitely but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more mid to upper 80s sometime in august. Definitely no more June stuff. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Following our driest spring on record. Our warmest June on record. Our hottest heat wave/temps on record and now rounding out our 3rd or 4th warmest July on record. It has indeed been pretty horrific, especially for someone who works outdoors and sees the affects on our landscape firsthand every day. I'm sorry that opinion bothers you so much but 

Yes, if you remove any and all context whatsoever then it was merely a super warm and drier than average July from Portland north. Cause for celebrating I guess. With our all time event at the end of the month being countered by zero meaningful pattern changes or troughs in the weeks following (a fact surprising me a little even).

And it was a complete and utterly historic inferno elsewhere of course. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a solidly warm month. Exceptional, even. But it’s been far from oppressive.

Yeah.... you're simply concocting a straw man here. 

No one here locally is saying it's been oppressively hot this month. We don't live in Yuma or Houston (yet). We don't expect something like 31 days of 90+ here in July, and don't use that as any sort of realistic standard or measuring stick.

Pointing out the reality of the current and ongoing situation isn't some hyperbolic way of making it sound like unsurvivable hellfire. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Point is, it could have been a lot worse. We’ve seen worse lately and a good part of this month had some nice diurnal cycles with decent onshore flow.

And putting aside the more acceptable persistence pessimism, the setup later next week is still pretty promising, especially with the unusual rex block helping things out. Mid summer climo doesn’t help, but might as well be positive!

Eh, the June 20 to present period has by far been the warmest on record for our area. Over a degree above 2015 at PDX.  With literally zero rainfall.

Realistically, it couldn't be a lot worse than that. Again, context matters.

[Winterdog]

28 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Yeah maybe one more 100 degree high but the worst is over. 

I couldn't have said it better. 

[Timmy Supercell]

There was a brief downpour, petrichor and a nice looking sunset. Overall I haven't had anything video worthy this year, in less than one week I'd have gone a full year since I had a really good storm event. Make 2021 count!

[Cloud]

Just ran the numbers. SEA will end up slightly above average for the month. Not a massive departure, but it’ll be above. 

[GHweatherChris]

16 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was a brief downpour, petrichor and a nice looking sunset. Overall I haven't had anything video worthy this year, in less than one week I'd have gone a full year since I had a really good storm event. Make 2021 count!

You could have just said it smells nice outside !

[Jesse]

56 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Eh, the June 20 to present period has by far been the warmest on record for our area. Over a degree above 2015 at PDX.  With literally zero rainfall.

Realistically, it couldn't be a lot worse than that. Again, context matters.

Hey, you aren’t putting sunshine in a very good light here!! (haha) Not cool! (lol)

[jcmcgaffey]

51 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Eh, the June 20 to present period has by far been the warmest on record for our area. Over a degree above 2015 at PDX.  With literally zero rainfall.

Realistically, it couldn't be a lot worse than that. Again, context matters.

That’s not a fair statement either. That anomalous June heatwave really throws that number off.  This has not been 2015 in terms of heat.  But in terms of dryness this has been the driest I have ever experienced up here.  The vegetation has never looked as parched that I remember in the 38 years I have lived here.  

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

That’s not a fair statement either. That anomalous June heatwave really throws that number off.  This has not been 2015 in terms of heat.  But in terms of dryness this has been the driest I have ever experienced up here.  The vegetation has never looked as parched that I remember in the 38 years I have lived here.  

Dude, take a step outside of the two miles bordering the Puget sound. The sustained heat has by and large put 2015 to shame for the rest of the region.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

That’s not a fair statement either. That anomalous June heatwave really throws that number off.  This has not been 2015 in terms of heat.  But in terms of dryness this has been the driest I have ever experienced up here.  The vegetation has never looked as parched that I remember in the 38 years I have lived here.  

Don't know what to tell you, the anomalous June heat happened and is absolutely fair to include when assessing for context.

And I'm not going to revisit the tired 2015 debate again but it's certainly fair to say that it's been remaining very persistently warm to hot across the bulk of the PNW. The late June event isn't some one-off in a sea of dramatically different weather patterns. 

And yes, the dryness has reached pretty epic proportions. PDX is going to finish the March 1 to July 31 period with 3.77" of rain.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Yesterday at this time NWS was calling for a high of 85°F at KBLI. Actual high was 72°F. Quite the bust.

65°F in my neighborhood after a high of 71.

[jcmcgaffey]

14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Dude, take a step outside of the two miles bordering the Puget sound. The sustained heat has by and large put 2015 to shame for the rest of the region.

That is a legitimate point. Further south has been worse and my statement was assuming this area.  The discussion was in regards to further south.  TBH I didn’t  realized that the heat has been that bad down there.   

[jcmcgaffey]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Don't know what to tell you, the anomalous June heat happened and is absolutely fair to include when assessing for context.

And I'm not going to revisit the tired 2015 debate again but it's certainly fair to say that it's been remaining very persistently warm to hot across the bulk of the PNW. The late June event isn't some one-off in a sea of dramatically different weather patterns. 

And yes, the dryness has reached pretty epic proportions. PDX is going to finish the March 1 to July 31 period with 3.77" of rain.

Ya I just responded to Jesse. I wasn’t really paying attention to the region you guys are in and talking about and just chimed in.  The general summer heat up here has not been as bad as 2015.  2015 was miserable for what felt like forever. This year was a miserable spike in June and since then has been pretty standard fair for summer around here.  But I realize further south has been much worse. 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Some here expect that everyone have a completely zen attitude with regard to any and all weather patterns, unless of course it’s cooler and wetter than average for a few days + in which case it’s totally acceptable to completely freak the f*ck out.

We pretty much talk about what is happening.  Sometimes its rainy.   

You love to build strawmen every day... but its soooooo tedious and stupid.   We can't change the weather.     It's probably best to have a zen attitude about all of it.    

 

[BLI snowman]

GFS absolutely roasts us at Day 10 following a two day splurge towards average and some sprinkles.

The pattern is going to remain quite ugly for awhile I'm afraid.

[TT-SEA]

Disappointing...

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Game over for rain in western Oregon for at least the next 10 days. If we’re very lucky, we will break the dry streak with a few hundredths of an inch. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Disappointing...

1.19" for me! Nice!

[jcmcgaffey]

This is completely non-scientific but I think we are in the same drought period that has moved across the us from southeast to west over the past 10-15 years.  I do think what is happening across the west will pass in the next 2-3 years and I think this year is the peak of it and will slowly come back to a slightly warmer/wetter than average normality.