July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Totally subjective. Of the last 46 days, only two have featured an anomaly below -1 at PDX. And that's with our 1991-2020 averages in play. That's impressive for any season, and when it's summer and it's coupled with all-time record heat and severe to extreme drought, it seems very fair to conclude that it feels like something of a relentless siege. I'm not understanding why you're continuing to completely gloss over that context and treat everything in isolation.  It's been hot and it also looks to continue for the foreseeable future, a fact that you dramatic pattern crash pushers are now going to have to own.

I think you’re squeezing a dry turnip here.  Seems very apropos given the current drought situation.

No one is denying the gravitas of the big picture, at least no one living outside the state of Colorado or formerly living at the summit of Stampede Pass. Again, July (frequently we DO look at months in “isolation” from an analytics perspective) was pretty reasonable here given the big picture.  It was a close shave, but also something that leaves us vulnerable during a summer which clearly has a lot of heat to give and the pattern evolves.

I know you’re on Team Mundanity, but the pattern evolution looks pretty reasonable at this point, and whether you can call it crashy or not seems pretty subjective as well. Clearly it’s a shift to a more dynamic and volatile progression where a fairly vigorous vort for early August rolls through, followed by potentially an amplified ridge which hints at being anchored, at least briefly along or just west of the coast as height falls to our east for the first time in, well, a long time.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

I think we get absolutely pummeled starting on or just after July 154th.

[Link]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

You don't like the answer so there you go. Have fun guessing!

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Scale is different though making that difference look twice as big as it is.

I don't choose the scales...but you can still see from the numbers either way.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like OLM finished at 65.6 for July. Easily cooler than 2018, 2015, 2014, 2009, 1998, 1985, 1958, etc. #13 warmest overall.