The last 2 months have already established a warm CONUS pattern which, when manifesting during post-niño springs, almost always precedes warm summers nationally.
This bears striking resemblance to spring 2010. Only difference is cool anomalies aren’t as prevalent (I suspect the same will hold true during the summer).
This would be a closer match to 2010 than 2012. Because 2012 wasn’t coming off a strong niño, where-as there are still niño-like elements to the current base state (albeit attenuating).
Of course there will be subseasonal scale differences as well. Unwise to project from any analog pool alone.
You don’t have a point. The context was *leaving town* on a day with desirable weather, to a destination with more desirable weather. Not *returning home* to desirable weather.