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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fall Creek drainage has burned 2-3 times in the past 20 years. 

I've gotta think that rate will increase moving forward.

Up to 80F but the smoke should put a capper on temps so that's a good thing I guess.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Don't think SLE is going to hit their forecast high of 103 today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just through Saturday morning... and likely more coming.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8359200.png

Wow maybe a half an inch, hope I don't drown. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just through Saturday morning... and likely more coming.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8359200.png

Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly.

Thanks for the jinx. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly.

This doesn't look like enough to mitigate concerns down here til Sept. So SW Oregon might still see some problems, but things should be better further north just like in Feb.

Basically, if you like fun weather or weather that doesn't disappoint you on a regular basis, the Eugene/Springfield area is the worst location in the PNW. And one of the worst in the nation.

I don't have a WB subscription til the regular season from Nov-Mar otherwise I would post more maps.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Total rain per 12Z ECMWF... well over an inch here.   That would be pretty nice. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8510400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Total rain per 12Z ECMWF... well over an inch here.   That would be pretty nice. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8510400.png

I will cherish that less than a quarter of an inch that will move further north to Salem...happy for y'all.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total rain per 12Z ECMWF... well over an inch here.   That would be pretty nice. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8510400.png

Can you pls post the OR map so we can see what SW OR is looking like for this event?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This doesn't look like enough to mitigate concerns down here til Sept.

Too soon to say.

I just think it's funny how certain members of this forum make these pronouncements about the weather a month down the road, when there is simply no way to know how things may change between now and then. The only rationale usually given is "persistence" - which works until it doesn't.

Phil does not fall into this category, as even though he is often wrong, at least there is real science behind his predictions and not just prisoner-of-the-moment emotions.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Can you pls post the OR map so we can see what SW OR is looking like for this event?

 

ecmwf-deterministic-oregon-total_precip_inch-8510400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-oregon-total_precip_inch-8510400.png

Really would like to see the inland SW area get some soaking rainfall but at least temps should be in check. Still concerned for later in the month if we only get a paltry amount it will still keep us at another bush league total for the water year as we are like -15" again on top of -17" from last year so it's still not good, and early Sept would be ripe for another bad situation since this isn't enough to keep things wet enough for fire danger to stay at bay. I hope you're right for our sake, and they should be fine from SLE north if this comes to fruition.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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12Z EPS is on board with the trough over the PNW one week from today... optimism for meaningful rain is growing.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8294400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lots of smoke trapped in the SE BC valleys this morning.

Otherwise, looks mostly clear in Western WA with some clouds and smoke hanging around Western/Central OR.

1892177072_COD-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest.truecolor.20210730.153617-overmap-bars.gif

We have really lucked out here.  The SW flow aloft has kept all of the clouds and gunk just to the south and east of us.  We're obviously in a bit of an inversion today.  It could be a lot hotter given the 850s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week.  The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA.  850s drop well below normal as well.  We'll see where it goes from there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Too soon to say for sure, but it's looking like a lot of weenie posts from earlier this week talking about how it would likely take until late August for the PNW to see any rain (if we're LUCKY) are going to look pretty silly.

I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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11 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks amazing for BC and Washington. 

Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Atleast there’s some rain down there too. It beats another heatwave. I’d say there’s a good chance these totals come down a bit as we approach the event but hopefully it’s close to what we’re seeing now. 

Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. 

I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had.

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yes, I would be thrilled with 75 and cloudy at this point. 

I would put money on the low ending up either further north than currently forecasted or stalling out before it gets to us though. Hard not to be pessimistic after the spring and summer we have had.

I definitely understand that and it is more in line with climo for systems to be up north in BC this time of year…so it wouldn’t be surprising if it ended up further north than currently progged. I’d be happy if we could squeeze 1/3-1/2 inch of rain total out of this pattern locally. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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82 degrees here at 1pm. We will see about hitting 90…some haze visible to the SE of here at work but still no clouds nearby for now. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is one legit ULL / trough the models are showing for next week.  The ECMWF is going with 0.8" for SEA.  850s drop well below normal as well.  We'll see where it goes from there.

JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. 

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1 minute ago, Link said:

JINXED! Watch Team Seattle hog the goal field as usual. 

We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’re still talking about a week or so out from now so it’s far from settled at this point. Encouraging signs at this point atleast. 

Thanks I needed a good laugh.  I am just expecting it to pull the rug a few days from now. 

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7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Too bad Robert didn't live to see it. RIP. At least they're continuing his site in his honor.

He would've frozen over and have no crops so it's probably better for him this way. A peaceful death instead of the other way instead of starving to death.

Never mind the grocery stores out of his region having supplies readily available (and always Amazon Prime) but in his area it's constant food panic and water wars and police kicking down doors constantly looking for handguns. :)  

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t really see how that’s illogical that people weren’t expecting rain until late august considering it’s the driest time of the year. It often doesn’t rain much at all here in the second half of July and the first half of august. Things are looking good now and we’re thankful for it. Now it’s just gotta verify. 

Just weenies being weenies. 

Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks.

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59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Up to 89F here. It’s a hot one

Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains.

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just weenies being weenies. 

Sure...it's the driest time of year, and in recent years it has often been exceptionally dry. But even a normal August is not usually completely dry for the first 3 weeks.

Definitely true. It’s not totally silly to think we would go through most of august without rain with the history of recent summers… but things are looking good now hopefully it doesn’t fizzle on us. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains.

Definitely has been more anomalous in BC and OR than here in western WA. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Flatiron's 1 yard line dancing over some light rain will no doubt screw us. 

Right now we are on about the 50-yard line.    But a touchdown is guaranteed!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Despite Tigerwood's parade of football numbers, I think much of southern BC may actually be experiencing the hottest summer relative to average west of the mountains.

Not sure about other stations but we will end up around +4. 
 

up to 93F currently 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Right now we are on about the 50-yard line.    But a touchdown is guaranteed!  

Yeah, I think it was Jesse who mentioned the similar setup at this point in 2018 on the models. That was forecast for days to be a big pattern shaker but the low just cut-off more and more and pumped up another prolonged heat event, before it kind of fizzled out entirely and eventually passed through harmlessly as little more than a 500mb impulse with some spotty drizzle. 

Climo sucks, especially now.

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