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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We all knew it was coming for us sooner or later. Still, yuck.

 

trc1_t1sfc_f48.png

Thankfully it looks nothing like last year. Hopefully with the upcoming pattern change it’ll be the last time we’ve gotta deal with it until next summer. For a time it was looking like it could get pretty smoky but we’ve been lucky. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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SLE picked up 0.02" of rain this morning. The dry streak is "over." Also looks like they managed to briefly drop below 70. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

66* with light rain drops falling in my coffee here and there.  Patio time may be canceled this morning 

Positive splat tests confirmed this morning. 

 

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  • Rain 1

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Looks like the rain got pushed back to next weekend. 

  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like we have some more hot to scorching weather to get through first. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We all knew it was coming for us sooner or later. Still, yuck.

 

trc1_t1sfc_f48.png

In Spokane right now and it's horrible here.   So glad we have escaped this so far at home. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In Spokane right now and it's horrible here.   So glad we have escaped this so far at home. 

Beautiful drive I-90 east when the weather is nice but smoke just kills the fun.  Hated that drive with all the smoke :(

Safe travels and if you end up in Butte tonight eat at Sparky's garage. Fun atmosphere inside….outside, not so much. 

E9D12CD3-ED43-4EA5-9336-7E028156F186.png

03321CD0-2250-4E7F-B726-244CBC35CB45.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

What is the record for warmest low temp for PDX? I can’t remember. 

75 back in June. Looks like this morning was 1 degree cooler than the previous record of 74 from July 2006. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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38 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Beautiful drive I-90 east when the weather is nice but smoke just kills the fun.  Hated that drive with all the smoke :(

Safe travels and if you end up in Butte tonight eat at Sparky's garage. Fun atmosphere inside….outside, not so much. 

E9D12CD3-ED43-4EA5-9336-7E028156F186.png

03321CD0-2250-4E7F-B726-244CBC35CB45.jpeg

@TT-SEA depending on how your trip times out, another good place is Parker's in Drummond, about 30-45 min east of Missoula.  That's the exit we get off at to go see my wife's family.  Parker's is a mandatory stop for us when we are there.  Ton's of burger options, a lot of them created by the locals. My wife's aunt created one, I think they call it the Ranch Lady.

I'll have to keep Sparky's in mind when we are out there.  We typically don't stop in Butte, but good to have an option if we do.

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A balmy 72° where I am in Kirkland. Looks like solid clouds and a stray shower for today. Weird that the forecast is in the 80s still...

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The San Jose Mercury reporting power generation could soon stop at Lake Oroville in Northern California. Tough times. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Much of the rain previously progged East of the Cascades early next week is now gone from the models. It is going to be very hot. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Maybe a brief cooldown next weekend, perhaps enough rain to wet the ground. Then warm air builds back in. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some thundershowers over the south coast of BC currently. 
 

Some how all those beautiful radar echoes over southern Vancouver island failed to produce a single raindrop here. 
 

cloudy and 72 after a “low” of 66F

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Cloudy and got down to a very nice 69F & now up to 78F. We should fall short of 90F but we'll see.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe a brief cooldown next weekend, perhaps enough rain to wet the ground. Then warm air builds back in. 

Right, in no way shape or form looking like a meaningful pattern change. Maybe a welcome distraction for a few days at best.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, in no way shape or form looking like a meaningful pattern change. Maybe a welcome distraction for a few days at best.

Hopefully the euro comes back around to the wetter solutions. They had 0.7” of rain here locally on the previous runs but last nights cut us back to 0.3” and 0.1-0.2” in the willamette valley. kind of get the feeling that’s more realistic but we will see where we’re at by early next week. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain per the 12Z GFS for next weekend...

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-8467200.png

Atleast the Olympics and cascades get a good soaking in Washington but would be nice to see higher totals down in Oregon. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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I'm actually kind of disappointed a few drops of rain spoiled our totally rainless month here.  Those are extremely rare.  Still only a trace though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe a brief cooldown next weekend, perhaps enough rain to wet the ground. Then warm air builds back in. 

Obviously anything that far out isn't etched in stone yet, but given the context this year another shot of warmth after the trough is more likely than not.  There has been indication that one will be short lived though.  At any rate the trough looks looks pretty decent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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19 hours ago, Phil said:

Woah..that’s an insane amount of subsidence over the WPAC starting week-2.

74ECB1DF-D375-4AD6-9ED7-44CA97D3191D.png

60030AC7-DA74-4D44-BDDE-1BD094422279.png

Positive (westerly)  200mb zonal wind anomalies are a very ninaish signal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously anything that far out isn't etched in stone yet, but given the context this year another shot of warmth after the trough is more likely than not.  There has been indication that one will be short lived though.  At any rate the trough looks looks pretty decent.

The long range is never "etched in stone" when it shows warm.   But when it shows cold... we talk about it like it's already happening.    It's all but guaranteed to happen.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The temperature hasn't budged here in the past 3 hours.  The clouds are really helping today.  Currently a comfortable 72.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just a trace of rainfall this morning with a low of 58F after a 84/53 day yesterday.

Also, didn't see if this was posted already, but a new fire started up in North Cascades National Park in the Chilliwack River drainage on Thursday. Cause hasn't officially been determined, but based on starting location and lack of lightning it was most likely human caused.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Positive (westerly)  200mb zonal wind anomalies are a very ninaish signal.

If only a nina meant anything good down this way...it means nothing for us this far south. Y'all will get another huge event again tho.

We will likely see our coldest temps sometime around late October like last year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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10 hours ago, Cloud said:

This was anticipated when they announced last October that many of the current ECMWF data and charts will become public for free. You gotta know an upgraded version is on the way.  If this is an indication on how accurate the parallel version is, subscribing to it will be worth it when it becomes available this fall. 

When the ECMWF upgrades, I trust that it will lead to better forecasts.  When the GFS upgrades, not so much. Glad it will be upgraded before winter.

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We will be going through Bozeman this afternoon heading east.  

Safe travels! Smoke isn’t too bad today (plenty of blue sky!) and looks to only improve throughout the weekend here.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Safe travels! Smoke isn’t too bad today (plenty of blue sky!) and looks to only improve throughout the weekend here.

In Missoula now... car thermometer says 91 and its smoky and brown.   :(

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So what happened with Monday's "outbreak?"

It'll be back soon ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Rain is approaching. About 78 degrees and overcast.

KMAX_loop.gif

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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We sure lucked out today.  850s still high enough for a quite hot day, but the thick clouds have us way lower than what was forecast.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Hopefully this trough can clear the air and tamp down the fires a bit, though with another big ridge looking to build in on the backside any relief on the fire/smoke front would be temporary.

At the very least it will be welcome to have a few days with coolish temps and some rain.

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Just a trace of rainfall this morning with a low of 58F after a 84/53 day yesterday.

Also, didn't see if this was posted already, but a new fire started up in North Cascades National Park in the Chilliwack River drainage on Thursday. Cause hasn't officially been determined, but based on starting location and lack of lightning it was most likely human caused.

It only dropped to 71 here, but it's only managed to rise about 1.5 degree so far since sunrise.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Hopefully this trough can clear the air and tamp down the fires a bit, though with another big ridge looking to build in on the backside any relief on the fire/smoke front would be temporary.

At the very least it will be welcome to have a few days with coolish temps and some rain.

I'll be interested to see how the possible ridge after the trough evolves in future model runs.  I'm hoping it will be shorter lived which could indicate this stuff is winding down.  No doubt the coming trough is going to cool things way down at least for several days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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