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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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This is completely non-scientific but I think we are in the same drought period that has moved across the us from southeast to west over the past 10-15 years.  I do think what is happening across the west will pass in the next 2-3 years and I think this year is the peak of it and will slowly come back to a slightly warmer/wetter than average normality. 

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I was expecting July 2021 to be a new record but surprisingly I'm -0.5 degrees from 2014. It must have been a few low temperatures that tipped the scales. I had a higher average high (91.7 vs. 90.6). Overall mean was 71.0.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We pretty much talk about what is happening.  Sometimes its rainy.   

You love to build strawmen every day... but its soooooo tedious and stupid.   We can't change the weather.     It's probably best to have a zen attitude about all of it.    

 

You are on vacation, go ahead, take a break from the forum and enjoy it until at least when you get back, it will do you and ALL OF US some good.  Have fun!!

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2 hours ago, Acer said:

74 for a high and cloudy all day with no precip.  Still muggy but quite nice for a change.  Ended July with .03" of precip,  I think we've seen the worst of our summer and we will now start coasting into autumn.

Wow I only managed 66 for a high! 
Currently 61. 

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19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You are on vacation, go ahead, take a break from the forum and enjoy it until at least when you get back, it will do you and ALL OF US some good.  Have fun!!

Cute... you had to move it up to the new page.  😀

I have not been posting that much lately anyways. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah.... you're simply concocting a straw man here. 

No one here locally is saying it's been oppressively hot this month. We don't live in Yuma or Houston (yet). We don't expect something like 31 days of 90+ here in July, and don't use that as any sort of realistic standard or measuring stick.

Pointing out the reality of the current and ongoing situation isn't some hyperbolic way of making it sound like unsurvivable hellfire. 

Straw man? Jesse made it sound like it was unbelievable that after three days of 90+ degree weather that we were going to possibly see another 3-4 days with temperatures (possibly) around 90. I think it’s fair to conclude that would indicate it’s been some kind of relentless siege, which it has not.

It’s been a very warm but very reasonable month overall. We dodged a bullet here, especially during the first 2/3 of the month when a pretty consistent cycle of NW’erly pushes were the rule.  Even you poked your head out of the forum hyperbolic chamber a few times to acknowledge it.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cute... you had to move it up to the new page.  😀

I have not been posting that much lately anyways. 

I knew you saw the original, needed to make sure others saw it as well,  and you are posting more than someone should that is on vacation (or will be) in a region that has it's own thread.  Enjoy your time off from the forum, your young and naive flock will be fine, FWIW!!

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8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I can’t believe how cool your locale can be. 66 was the low here today.  86/66 here with just a couple of sun breaks this afternoon 

MossMan and I both had highs only in the 60s.  It hit 65F as the high in my area.  Cloudy all day.

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July will end up with 3 days in the 90s, 21 days in the 80s (68%), 6 days in the 70s, and 1 day in the 60s. +3.4 on the average monthly temp. 0.00 in the rain gauge for the month.

Overall nothing particularly hot or noteworthy all month. Just consistently warm and sunny with some nice marine layer days mixed in. Wish we got some rain but what are you gonna do. On to August.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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I hope U of O isn’t destroyed…

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Some rain is trying to make it across the mountains but it looks difficult. Looks like some showers at Snoqualmie Pass and as far west as Sultan, Gold Bar and Monroe, it'll be interesting to see if it can get over. 

Definitely been getting positive splats over here in Gold Bar. Would be nice to see my yard a color other than yellow. And my small trees that the previous owners left us a different shade of dead red.

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9 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Straw man? Jesse made it sound like it was unbelievable that after three days of 90+ degree weather that we were going to possibly see another 3-4 days with temperatures (possibly) around 90. I think it’s fair to conclude that would indicate it’s been some kind of relentless siege, which it has not.

It’s been a very warm but very reasonable month overall. We dodged a bullet here, especially during the first 2/3 of the month when a pretty consistent cycle of NW’erly pushes were the rule.  Even you poked your head out of the forum hyperbolic chamber a few times to acknowledge it.

Totally subjective. Of the last 46 days, only two have featured an anomaly below -1 at PDX. And that's with our 1991-2020 averages in play. That's impressive for any season, and when it's summer and it's coupled with all-time record heat and severe to extreme drought, it seems very fair to conclude that it feels like something of a relentless siege. I'm not understanding why you're continuing to completely gloss over that context and treat everything in isolation.  It's been hot and it also looks to continue for the foreseeable future, a fact that you dramatic pattern crash pushers are now going to have to own.

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Springfield was warmer than the airport so they were hotter than Jul 2015.

Airport was one tenth of a degree short.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Salem had its hottest month on record in July, beating out 2015 (!) by two tenths of a degree.

Medford had its first ever monthly mean over 80 in July. Crispy!

Spokane smashed its 115 year old record for hottest month on record, beating July 1906 by 1.6 degrees. Of course records then were measured in the hotter downtown area. The airport era record was July 2014, and that was smashed by 1.8 degrees.

Great work, guys!

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Looks like we dodged a bullet in WA with only very little lightning so far.  Dry lightning would have been an utter disaster as dry as it is.  I can't believe there was so little activity with southerly to SSE flow over us.

No doubt the surprisingly cool day yesterday was very welcome also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Scale is different though making that difference look twice as big as it is.

Still very definite though.  This summer will not be as hot as 2015 here unless something drastic happens this month.  A cool August would put us well short.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Wet deck!! 
0.00” on the day though. 
59 degrees currently. 

0AC59FC2-CF6A-4F7A-A87D-DB849939F105.jpeg

Wet from the sprinkler?  As an aside you should see how golden brown my lawn is.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The 12z GFS is pretty wet for a good part of Western WA.  Not so much for OR.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wet from the sprinkler?  As an aside you should see how golden brown my lawn is.

Had a quick shower early this morning just enough to wet the deck. And that part of the grass that you see in the pic I have not watered at all this summer…Other than two times where my kids wanted to run through the sprinkler! 

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12 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I was expecting July 2021 to be a new record but surprisingly I'm -0.5 degrees from 2014. It must have been a few low temperatures that tipped the scales. I had a higher average high (91.7 vs. 90.6). Overall mean was 71.0.

Ice age incoming! Crop failures, GMO! Police busting down doors! Get your rain barrels ready and lots of explosives around your property for the food shortages.

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It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Totally subjective. Of the last 46 days, only two have featured an anomaly below -1 at PDX. And that's with our 1991-2020 averages in play. That's impressive for any season, and when it's summer and it's coupled with all-time record heat and severe to extreme drought, it seems very fair to conclude that it feels like something of a relentless siege. I'm not understanding why you're continuing to completely gloss over that context and treat everything in isolation.  It's been hot and it also looks to continue for the foreseeable future, a fact that you dramatic pattern crash pushers are now going to have to own.

I think you’re squeezing a dry turnip here.  Seems very apropos given the current drought situation.

No one is denying the gravitas of the big picture, at least no one living outside the state of Colorado or formerly living at the summit of Stampede Pass. Again, July (frequently we DO look at months in “isolation” from an analytics perspective) was pretty reasonable here given the big picture.  It was a close shave, but also something that leaves us vulnerable during a summer which clearly has a lot of heat to give and the pattern evolves.

I know you’re on Team Mundanity, but the pattern evolution looks pretty reasonable at this point, and whether you can call it crashy or not seems pretty subjective as well. Clearly it’s a shift to a more dynamic and volatile progression where a fairly vigorous vort for early August rolls through, followed by potentially an amplified ridge which hints at being anchored, at least briefly along or just west of the coast as height falls to our east for the first time in, well, a long time.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

I think we get absolutely pummeled starting on or just after July 154th.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears more likely we're going to get another stupid ridge after this trough coming up.  I just don't get it with a Nina developing again and the tropics in a profound Nina state right now.  You have to think this will be made up for...hopefully when it counts.

You don't like the answer so there you go. Have fun guessing!

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